The irony would be rich, were the subject any less serious. After years of the the left and international critics accusing the Bush administration of fearmongering and sabre-rattling about Iran's nuclear weapons program, it turns out that Bush was dead on — Iran will have a working nuclear weapon within the year.
Critics of the Bush administration like Paul Craig Roberts accused Bush of trying to use bogus claims of nuclear weapons in Iran to promote an imperialistic agenda. Two years ago Roberts spoke for many on the radical left and the isolationist right when he wrote:
"A truthful statement, which no one any longer expects from any member of the Bush Regime, would be that the weapons inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency have pored over Iran's nuclear program and have found no evidence of a weapons program. A number of experts, such as Gordon Prather, have fiercely disputed the propagandistic claims of an Iranian nuclear weapons program...Any expert or knowledgeable person who examines these statements sees nothing but unsupported assertions, paranoid speculations, fear- mongering and blatant lies. It is on this basis, and this basis alone, that the Bush Regime will initiate war with Iran...Iran is being set up by the identical propaganda machine that set up Iraq with fearful imagery of "mushroom clouds over American cities" and nonexistent "weapons of mass destruction."In trying to counter the Bush claims about Iranian nuclear aspirations, critics like Justin Raimando, of AntiWar.com, pointed to the CIA's National Intelligence Estimate to show that even our own experts disagreed with the Bush administration's assessment of Iran's nuclear potential. Raimondo wrote:
"Leaving the realm of speculation, and entering the region of hard facts: our own National Intelligence Estimate on Iran and its alleged nuclear weapons program shows that the Iranians had a weapons program that they abandoned: 'We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program.' While keeping the option open, the Iranian regime has not restarted its nuclear program, according to our spooks, and probably could not iron out all the technical problems and hoarding of nuclear materials until at least 2015 – and even then there is no evidence Tehran has any such intention."Apparently leftist ideology and anti-Israeli fanaticism aren't enough to turn Iran into the heroic and peace loving fantasyland people like Roberts and Raimondo would like it to be. Even the CIA, in its eagerness to show up the administration with which it often clashed, ended up committing the same sin for which the Bush administration was condemned when it launched the Iraq War on speculation and suspicion. All of them put too much trust in Iran and ignored the reality that Iran always intended to develop nuclear weapons and never even paused in its pursuit of them despite its protestations to the contrary.
Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - Bryan Myrick
Dave,
Thank you for bringing this to the attention of Blogcritics readers. This is not an idle program and it is one that the Iranian government is taking steps to protect. With the help of the Russian Federation they have been installing a permiter SAM defense of Russian S-300 batteries - possibly the most advanced system in the world and one that can only be breached, in theory, by advanced aircraft like the F-35 that is yet to be made operational.
This is serious. Will President Obama take it seriously? The door may have closed on the military option. If it hasn't it is certainly closing due to Russian designs to rebuild its military forces and regain its prestige as a world power. The factor of Russian involvement (and existing defense pacts between the Iran and Russia) places a disturbing set of outcomes in front of U.S. military planners when considering active options.
2 - Ruvy
NU? davíd gilá amérika! Dave discovered America!
Good morning, Dave! I hope all the rest of you fools out there pay attention to Dave Nalle, if you won't pay attention to me....
Three years ago, I wrote about the Iranian missle threat to Israel - emphasizing the non-chalant Israeli response even to the mortal threat of nuclear missiles from Iran. I wrote about the possible weaknesses in the Islamic Republic. I also wrote about the messianic politics of Ahmadinejad and his intent to re-establish a Persian empire in this section of the world - and his success in doing so, even though the Iranian flag does not fly in its colonies, Syria, Lebanon and Gaza.
The intent of the Iranians to re-establish the Persian empire of 1,400 years ago has been bolstered by the desire of the Russians to re-establish their empire that fell apart in 1990. Ahmadinejad has managed to accomplished - with the help of a traditional enemy, Russia - what the shahinshah, the king of kings of CIA puppets, couldn't accomplish with the help of a so-called "friend" - America.
Unless Obama is willing to go to war - including nuclear war - to protect America's position in the world, the day may well come when he is flying in Air Force One over a country that has been attacked by nuclear weapons proclaiming to his ashen-faced staff, "I didn't sign on for this!"
Only the nation that is willing to fight with no limit survives in a world of wolves and murderers. If Obama does not have that kind of steel, you Americans may not survive the next four to eight years.
Mazel tov, boys and girls!
3 - Dave Nalle
Ruvy, always such a source of good cheer.
But keep in mind that Iran will bomb Israel first, and may not even attempt to bomb the US. Israel they can take out with a few bombs and a preemptive strike. Nothing they can do would be able to stop the US from retaliating.
Having the 300+ nukes Israel reportedly has isn't much use when your country is so small that you can't really hide them.
Dave
4 - Dr Dreadful
Excuse me, Dave, your hyperbole is showing.
I went to your links. Neither the CFR nor the IISS reports indicate that Iran will have a bomb this year. The firmest predictions see them having amassed enough enriched uranium - not exactly the same as having a working bomb. 2010-2015 is seen as a more realistic timeframe.
That's not to say the situation is any less cause for concern purely because of the timeframe. Unfortunately, as Bryan so astutely notes in comment 1, an effective military response by the US may no longer be an option.
Bush, through his unnecessary invasion of Iraq, may not only have stretched US forces far too thinly but also have deflated the nation's stomach for yet another war. Not to mention that a weak Iraq has made room for a stronger Iran.
Ruvy is, as usual, also flashing his hyperbole. Even if Iran does speed up the timeframe, it's unlikely in the short term that she will have enough nuclear material for more than one or two low-yield weapons. Hardly enough for the picture of Armageddon he conjures up.
5 - Hope and Change?
Oh Ye of Little Faith...there is nothing to worry about! King Barry will simply read a prewritten speech from a teleprompter...the AAAAAAAAAAArabs and Jews will fall on their knees. pray to King Barry and er..um...you know.
You non believers underestimate the power of our savior! Who cares that the Moooooooooslims want to kill all non-Moooooooooslims it doesnt matter to our King! He needs to restore our reputation around the world!! It is obvious he wants to restore our standing back to the Carter years!
PS - Can someone tell the King that the election is over, he won and he can stop campaigning. It is very disturbing hearing him day after to day talking about "what he wants to do and how bad Bush was". It is time to stop talking and start doing!
6 - Ruvy
I'm glad I could bring cheer to your day, Dave. Just holler anytime you're feeling down, and I come to your rescue - with more downers!
But keep in mind that Iran will bomb Israel first, and may not even attempt to bomb the US. Israel they can take out with a few bombs and a preemptive strike. Nothing they can do would be able to stop the US from retaliating.
My own sources tell me that if this kind of move is made, it won't be made by Iran acting alone - it will be made by Russia and Iran acting in concert. The news story in all of this, even a point which you fail to emphasize sufficiently, if the real Russian effort to re-establish itself as a major power. The Russians regard us as penny-ante cowards and will leave us to th4e tender mercies of the Iranians and their allies.
You in America, on the other hand, are a whole different kettle of fish. The intelligent thing to do would be to attack you first - preventing any losses from Americans striking back.
Ruvy is, as usual, also flashing his hyperbole.
I don't have to conjur up Armageddon. It's a real place, with an air base and everything - Har Megiddo. And the war I imagine would involve a massive non-nuclear missile (not rocket) strike by Syria, HizbAllah, and if they are in any shape to do it, by Hamas as well. Only after the Iranians are assured of Russian sea and air-power in the southeast Mediterranean, would the Iranians bother to use the nukes they may have built.
7 - Dr Dreadful
The intelligent thing to do would be to attack you first - preventing any losses from Americans striking back.
Yes, right, that's the intelligent thing to do - attack a nation which, even if it is too thinly-stretched to commit troops on the ground, can still turn all your major cities into mirrors with the turn of a key.
8 - Ruvy
Yes, right, that's the intelligent thing to do - attack a nation which, even if it is too thinly-stretched to commit troops on the ground, can still turn all your major cities into mirrors with the turn of a key.
DD, The Iranians wouldn't attack the States (they might have some decoy to fool the States, though) - the Russians would. And frankly, that would not surprise me at all - not with the kind of leaders they have these days. I've read some of their older scenarios - with a bit of updating, they could easily take America out before it had tine to think of how to respond.
9 - Dr Dreadful
Ain't going to happen, Ruvy - not with the kind of multi-billion-dollar interests Russian business has in the US and the West these days.
10 - Ruvy
Hope and whatever....
Don't fool yourselves about us, dude. We know what kind of shit is sitting in your White House these days, and only the cowards on the left (in the government) are as gullible as American Jews are.
11 - Dave Nalle
Even the Russians don't have the ability to take out hardened ground emplacements, airborne strategic bombers and nuclear armed submarines all at the same time, Ruvy. There would be retaliation, no matter what. This is why the Russians won't nuke the US. And don't forget that they're Russians. All machinery in Russia is broken 80% of the time, including their nuclear weapons.
Dave
12 - Les Slater
Dr. D is the only one on this thread who hasn't had his brain turned to mush.
Bryan says:
"With the help of the Russian Federation they have been installing a permiter SAM defense of Russian S-300 batteries - possibly the most advanced system in the world and one that can only be breached, in theory, by advanced aircraft like the F-35 that is yet to be made operational."
Think about the ironic stupidity of that statement.
13 - Baronius
Ruvy, it always interests me how closely your reading of prophecy mirrors that of evangelical Christians. A great army of Russia and Iran rising against Israel, nuclear war - only I think you'll be surprised at the identity of the Messiah leading Israel to victory. Well, here's hoping that things don't turn so ugly so soon.
14 - Brunelleschi
Not to worry.
Iran turns Israel into a glass parking lot, and we can at last STFU about this! Sheesh already.
We are covered here in America. Messiah will bring us back to life and we will live in peace and harmony.
It is written.
:)
15 - Baronius
Dave, you got me thinking about all the things Bush was blamed for, including things that never happened. The war against Iran, instituting a theocracy, the devastation of bird flu.... I remember my personal favorite: that Bush (who stole the 2000 and 2004 elections, after all) wasn't going to relinquish power. The 2008 election wouldn't happen, or there would be a coup, or a declaration of emergency, or "another" fake terrorist attack. Cheney would take over.
I mocked the people who said such things. I promised them that I'd apologize if I were wrong, but I expected an apology if they were wrong. It turns out that they were wrong; they slandered two good and decent public servants. They owe Bush and Cheney an apology, and I wouldn't mind one either.
16 - Hope and Change?
Ruvy....Amen! Can someone explain why American Jews are some of the BIGGEST antisemites?
They knew King Barry was going to shit in Israel...yet the still gave hime money and voted for him!
The US is pathetic...every burp or fart from King Barry is reported by the media as being some sort of devine intervention...
Hope and a change...er um...of underwear!
17 - Brunelleschi
Love it or leave it!
It's Obama time.
18 - Dave Nalle
They owe Bush and Cheney an apology, and I wouldn't mind one either.
Fat chance, Baronius.
Dave
19 - Bryan Myrick
Les:
I re-read what I wrote and failed to find what you call ironic stupidity. The Russian are arming the Iranians with first-tier defensive hardware that even first-tier hardware may not be able to overcome. If you read my comment throughly you will see that I am making the point that we may have allowed a number of options to expire by letting so much time pass.
I'm not sure if insinuating that my mind has turned to much is much of a debating point. Why don't you step out onto the stage and make a real argument.
20 - Cindy D
Re #14
lol
21 - Baronius
Dave - Yeah, I know, fat chance. But you can't let all of the errors, attacks, and indecencies slip by unnoticed. Maybe someone will consider his own track record and reconsider his beliefs. Maybe Bruno, for example, will remember that he said he didn't care if Franken gets into the Senate via campaign fraud, and what that does to his credibility.
22 - Cindy D
everything i try to type here is an insult
23 - Baritone
No one owes Bush or Cheney anything. Their administration was non-stop cluster fuck of the country from day one. They deserved their record low approval rating.
What is REALLY stupid is how about everyone here is lambasting Obama BEFORE the fact. You all just assume that he will fuck up. You all obviously HOPE he fucks up.
To remain a Bush/Cheney apologist is mind numbingly dumb. Most of you are gleefully jumping on the Limbaugh bandwagon planning your beer bashes for when your hotly anticipated fall of Obama occurs. Considering the dire nature of most of the issues facing Obama, left to him by Butthead in Chief Bush, should he fail, I suspect Ruvy's direst predictions may well come to fruition.
So, in the event of an Obama failure, you will perhaps have a few fleeting moments to revel in your "victory" before your own butts go down in flame along with everybody eleses.
This place is rank with stupid political bullshit. It's all a fucking game to most of you. One-upmanship and cynicism are all you have to bring to the table.
B
24 - Bryan Myrick
Baritone,
It's not a game to me and I agree with you on your complaint about rampant one-upsmanship and cynicism. Too much defense of ideology and not enough conversation. Unfortunately, that's what I see on most web sites; Blogcritics can't redefine what passes as "debate" on the web, people need to make their own choices to take things seriously or move the playground antics elsewhere.
Blogcritics has the potential of being a kind of Algonquin Round Table in cyberspace, at some point in the future. There are some excellent writers sneaking around this place; it is one the things that attracted me to the site.
(OMG am I ever going to get firebombed for this comment, but it will serve to prove my point better than simply stating it ever could.)
25 - Roger Nowosielski
Baritone,
I don't even bother. Turn on "the ignore switch."