The results are in, unofficially at least...
The much-hyped Iowa Straw Poll finally took place tonight, and the results are in. As expected, Mitt Romney was the victor. Of course, with top-tier candidates like Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and Fred Thompson refusing to participate, anything less than a solid first-place finish would have been devastating to the Romney candidacy.…
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Article comments
26 - The Spewker
Nice analysis. But don't count Tancredo or Paul out of the running just yet. Romney spent way too much money and did too much family stumping to earn an impressive first place finish. I concede the momentum goes to Huckabee, but I can't see a Baptist minister as the nominee. Thompson, Hunter, and Cox are done. Perhaps now the FredHeads can convince their Thompson to join the fray. Don't be surprised if Newt Gingrich jumps in as well. He was there in Iowa, disguised as a concerned "citizen."
27 - RJ
Ron Paul wins New Hampshire Straw Poll:
Paul - 208
Romney - 26
Huckabee - 20
Tancredo - 8
McCain - 7
Cox - 5
Hunter - 5
F. Thompson - 3
Giuliani - 3
Brownback - 1
28 - RJ
Ron Paul wins Alabama Straw Poll:
Tom Tancredo - 0 (0.00%)
Sam Brownback - 2 (0.75%)
John McCain - 2 (0.75%)
Mike Huckabee - 6 (2%)
Rudy Giuliani - 7 (3%)
Fred Thompson - 9 (3%)
Duncan Hunter - 10 (4%)
Mitt Romney - 14 (5%)
Ron Paul - 216 (81%)
29 - RJ
Romney wins Illinois Straw Poll:
Mitt Romney (40.35%)
Fred Thompson (19.96%)
Dr. Ron Paul (18.87%)
Giuliani (11.61%)
McCain (4.12%)
Huckabee (3.04%)
Brownback (1.08%)
Hunter (0.65%)
Tancredo (0.33%)
30 - Dr Dreadful
H'm.
But what exactly are these straw polls, who votes in them and how much significance should we read into them, especially this long before the primaries start?
(Although if the states keep on with their ridiculous "me first" oneupmanship, the first primary could be tomorrow at this rate!)
31 - Wisconsin Dem
Hello,
Just to clarify: yes, I am a Democrat, but the best thing for all of us is to have an intelligent, open, communicative process that involves people from both sides. The best thing for all of us is to have a legitimate race in which we ask the question "who would be a better president?" not "who would be worse?"
I just wanted to offer a few rebuttal points here.
To Carson:
"I am proud to be an American when I see the way the straw poll seemed to cut through some of the hype created by the media in favor of the over financed candidates."
Really? Romney spent about 5 million getting supporters to and at this straw poll. The other "over[-]financed candidates" didn't participate.
The thing about Iowans is that they are a ridiculously over-privileged group of early voters who are more than willing to punish candidates for not participating in their polls.
That said, 3 out of the 4 Republican front-runners (that would be 4 out of the 5 if you count the current leader in Republican polls: "None of the above") didn't participate which immediately negates the legitimacy of the entire thing for the reason I mentioned in the last paragraph. The Iowan voters were punishing those candidates who chose not to participate. This was a great opportunity for the second- and third-tier candidates to appear as if they have some weight in this primary, but it won't last. The front-runners will all be in Iowa for the caucuses.
to RJ:
"why should Tancredo drop out at this point?"
I think just mentioning one exchange featuring Tancredo should be enough to make my point:
"'Well, what if you said something like â€" if this happens in the United States, and we determine that it is the result of extremist, fundamentalist Muslims, you know, you could take out their holy sites,' Tancredo answered.
'You're talking about bombing Mecca,' Campbell said.
'Yeah,' Tancredo responded."
I think his 14% alone should completely negate the results of this poll. The guy actually said he would bomb Mecca, the holiest site of the world's most populous religion, because of the threat of fringe activists who represent a smaller percentage of their religion than the KKK does of Christianity. If Tancredo thinks this is a legitimate way to deter terrorists, I don't want him anywhere near a position to make any decision... ever.
Again to RJ:
"Well, he didn't, so goodbye Tommy. Maybe if you're lucky, the next President will be a fellow Republican, and he'll offer you the ambassadorship to Angola or something."
As much as I dislike Tommy Thompson (even though I am a Wisconsinite) he was made Secretary of Health and Human Services under the Bush administration and left before the approval rating started plummeting, so I don't think it would be unreasonable to expect that he'd get a better position in a new Republican administration than "[ambassador] to Angola or something."
That's all from me. Later!
32 - RJ
"Brownback will withdraw from the race sometime in the near future - mark my words."
I win.
33 - Dave Nalle
Not sure what you win for that. Not like there ws any change he wasn't going to withdraw at some point soon.
Now we just need to flush Tancredo and Hunter and get down to business.
dave
34 - RJ
Well...it was always obvious he wasn't going to win the nomination...but I was correct that his departure would come "soon" - as in, before the Primaries even began...
I think Hunter and Tancredo will stick around for at least a couple of state's Primaries...actually, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Tancredo was one of the last candidates to drop out...
35 - JJ
Only reason Mitt Romney got anywhere was because all the mormans in the state showed up.
36 - RJ Elliott
Six months ago, I wrote:
Mike Huckabee: "This result could easily propel the former Arkansas Governor to top-tier status among the GOP candidates. ... Keep your eye on this guy." Pretty good. 9/10
Ron Paul: "Ron Paul really does have a significant base of support, as evidenced by his impressive fund-raising and his strong online presence. He won't win the nomination, of course, but I do expect him to be the last candidate to concede ..." Again, good. 8/10
John McCain: "His only hope is another New Hampshire miracle. But it isn't going to happen this time around." OOPS! 2/10
37 - RJ Elliott
Okay, so it's McCain.
Paul is the only other candidate still in the race, although he's obviously not a factor at this point.
Question: Who will McCain pick as his running mate? I think Romney would be a good choice, as it would largely appease conservatives who are skeptical of McCain. Such a pick would also bring to the ticket someone with executive and business experience, as well as someone who is a pretty good speaker and rather telegenic (and relatively more youthful). Unfortunately, McCain seems to hate Romney, so this is unlikely.
Is Lieberman an option? That might help to win over independents and Democrats, but could further alienate conservative Republicans. It would be an interesting pick, but I doubt it will happen. (Maybe Secretary of Defense, though.)
Colin Powell would also be an interesting pick, although I suspect Powell wants nothing to do with electoral politics at this point.
Thoughts, comments? I'm all ears.