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From: Eric Berlin @ Center-Left'))
To: Phillip Winn @ Center-Right
Subject: CIA Leak Case
Phillip, it's late on a Tuesday night as I write these words. Special Prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald has not yet announced the results of his two-year investigation into the outing of CIA operative Valerie Plame. But it's coming soon, as soon as Wednesday, so I think this is as good a time as any – as Washington waits and the press freaks itself out in anticipation and the President talks about "background noise" and some make allusions to "worse than Watergate" – to ask:
What's it all really mean, then?
A lot hinges on whether or not anyone – and particularly high ranking officials – gets indicted, obviously. If no one gets indicted, the White House breathes a huge sigh of relief and hopes that the darkest night has passed. If there are indictments, much hinges on whether or not top aides I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby (Vice President Cheney's Chief of Staff) and Karl "Bush's Brain" Rove fall in that group.
If Libby, Rove, or both get indicted, it will be at the least a damaging blow to an administration that has been beset by failures (see: Social Security reform), bungles (see: Harriet Miers), and charges of incompetence (see: “You’re doing a hell of a job, Brownie) throughout 2005.
So I ask: if there are high-level indictments, will it mean that the Bush administration will be put on trial (by the media and, to an extent, the public) for misleading the nation into war with Iraq?
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From: Phillip Winn @ Center-Right'))
To: Eric Berlin @ Center-Left
Already on Wednesday, I'm reading that no indictments are due today, so it seems that the mystery and the tension will ratchet up a little tighter over the next day or two. The grand jury investigating the leak of Valerie Plame's name, role, and relationship to Joseph Wilson expires on Friday, so we're down to the wire.
What's it all about, Alfie?
In one sense, I think it is seriously "inside baseball." I bet a survey of even registered voters would reveal that a miniscule percentage of people are even aware of the issues in play here, and that even fewer actually care. If indictments are brought, that could change, but for now, one has to work pretty hard to get too excited about this. The idea that this could be "worse than Watergate" seems to be pure political posturing on a number of levels. So far I've seen nothing which suggests that this will even rise to the level of scandal that plagued the Clinton administration, and most of those "scandals" went nowhere.
Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - Phillip Winn
Here's an awful thought: Given that Miers withdrew from consideration as a Supreme Court Justice today, do you suppose Fitzgerald will sit on any indictments until tomorrow, to make sure he doesn't have to share the spotlight?
2 - alienboy
er, why is that awful? this is politics, right? it's all about perception these days as the spectacle of politics displaces the urgent need for creative solutions to a host of serious problems that need urgent attention.
3 - Phillip Winn
I think it would be awful if someone's ego would drive that person to manipulate the American public, generally. I know it happens daily (even minute-by-minute) in Washington, but I still don't like it.
4 - alienboy
You actually just stated that you don't like the entire political system! LOL. But I'm afraid that's just the way it is these days.
As I wrote above, there are many serious issues facing not only the USA but all countries that are simply being ignored or downgraded.
I tend to think that the major political parties largely ignore these issues for two main reasons; the first is that they aren't taking the issues seriously because they have no ideas as to how to resolve them, therefore dodge and fudge is the strategy; the second is that most parties are now so strongly,so rigidly dogmatic that the solutions are actually against policy and therefore to be opposed.
That is the sad current state of things, doublespeak and bullshit rules the day. I wonder what George Orwell would have thought?
5 - Phillip Winn
Alienboy, you're right. I don't like the entire political system. Sadly, it's the only one we have, and any other system would eventually devolve just as this one has.
Misplaced priorities rule Washington, as well as pretty much everywhere else. Sigh.
6 - Temple A. Stark
>> Lying to the American people â€" which it is possible Cheney has done while not under oath â€" isn't illegal
You can still have obstruction of justice without being under oath.
7 - DJRadiohead
Misplaced priorities rule Washington, as well as pretty much everywhere else.
Which is why the lie is always 'worse' than the original 'crime/sin' in the eyes of the public. Most of us don't have the legal background or understanding to be able to concretely assert LAWS were BROKEN in this case or the Whitewater bit (Watergate was easier, as Phillip notes) but we all understand lying. We all understand lying under oath. In short, we all understand what "is" is. If Rove or Libby lied under oath... this story gets legs. The fact that an undercover CIA agent might have been outed; outed for political reasons no less will be lost in the feeding frenzy.
There are very few of us who remember the particulars of the Whitewater land deal. We do remember cigars, semen-stained dresses, blowjobs, and new definitions of "is" and "sexual relations."
When/if this thing explodes, I just hope my beret still fits.
8 - M. Jeffrey
I studied the Nixon Administration in school and it is just uncanny how similar the W admin is to that of Richard Nixon. Riding a horse of purity to power, and then falling in flames, both surrounded by cronies with nifty nicknames that become household references. Like any President or not are ours until they leave, but it is a shame how deep and how much scandal surrounds the current lot.
I think that the Fitzgerald report was delayed becuse of the White Sox. Baseball once again permeates the American (US) culture. C'mon guys, give him a break, he's from Chicago.
9 - Nancy
The W. Post was saying today that Fitzgerald spent yesterday presenting his summary to the grand jury. Cutting it kinda close, IMO, since tomorrow their mandate runs out - but lord knows I'm no expert on grand juries; maybe they don't need the same amount of time to come up with an indictment? Anyone here ever been on a grand jury?
10 - M. Jeffrey
You are right about lying, DJR. Outing a CIA officer can seriously jeopordize their lives let alone their livlihoods, but few will remember or care.
Another reason the "lie" is poignant in the current case has to do with fact that lies may be the reason 2000 of our own have returned home in boxes.
11 - DJRadiohead
Oh, someone is getting indicted. It has to happen.
Let's try to take politics out of this for a second. If Kenneth Starr had spent 4 years and $40 million only to come out and say, "Hey, he's clean. Go on about your business" there would have been hell to pay. He damn well better come back after all that recommending impeachment whether or not impeachment is appropriate.
Similar thing here. If Fitzgerald spent two years and $___ million investigating someone better be indicted whether or not indictment is appropriate.
I know these two cases are very different and I will get smacked from both the left and the right for making the comparison (truly, gents I am in the middle now). I just think beyond the politics there are career concerns and 'realities' that just are. It seems to me the name of the game in each of these cases is to keep investigating until you find a reason to indict/ impeach.
12 - Nancy
Fitzgerald's original mandate was for the Plame outing by itself; at some point he got further authorization to investigate perjury & obstruction, so obviously at some point he felt he had some good indications someone was lying or stonewalling. I don't think anyone goes fishing for that without some basis for doing so. The CIA is said to be watching this like a hawk, & will file their own case/charges if they don't like the charges Fitzgerald comes up with - or the indictees. I'm wondering if Novak is one of them; he certainly should be, simply for publishing the information. He's certainly been keeping a very, very low profile the last year or so. Guess we'll find out tomorrow?
13 - DJRadiohead
Well, these investigations always have SOME basis. I think one problem with the system (and there are plenty of them) is that it doesn't seem OK to come back with an answer of "All Clear." It appears that the purpose of an investigation in these situations is to determine who gets indicted/impeached rather than to gather the facts or (and how naive will this sound) find the truth.
Maybe Rove and Libby deserve to be indicted, tried, and convicted. I am not saying they don't. I don't know. It just seems like Fitzgerald has to try, period. And I think it cuts this way regardless of partisan affiliation.
14 - DJRadiohead
By the way, nice job again fellas.
EB, just one thing: from where I am sitting, I would be shocked if this actually leads us back to a discussion of Iraq or pre-war intelligence. Something tells me the indictments will not be for the leak but rather 'obstruction' or some such thing. It will be a black eye for the administration but I don't know that Democrats will be able to bring this back around to Iraq. Just my thought.
15 - Tom Christian
Right now I'm more interested in seeing if Valerie Plame or anyone at the CIA is being punished. That may sound strange to everyone. But let me explain. In the midst of all of this Karl RoveValerie Plame controversy I have heard Valerie Plame described as working in "WMD counter-proliferation". That's not entirely true however. She and her coworkers were also engaged in spying on Americans inside America. I know. She called me in spring of 2003 pretending to be with Brewster-Jennings. Following that I got a call from "Gail Heights" at University Services trying to get information. As many of you may remember, Gail Heights was the alias used by Gao Zhan the Chinese scholar who was convicted of exporting microprocessors to Communist China. This was just one of many attempts by Valerie Plame and her colleagues to get inside my life which started back in 1996 after I applied for a job at the CIA. (And to my knowledge I don't have ANY nuclear weapons or anthrax at my house so she certainly wasn't pursuing WMD when she was spying on me.)
For a lot more information, see my website at:
http://www.tomchristianonline.com/
Tom Christian
Weston, FL
16 - Eric Berlin
DJR -- I think this case has already sparked off a reexamination of the lead-up to the Iraq War, as we are doing right here. There was a discussion on Hardball tonight that very much mirrors the pattern of this conversation.
Tom -- Why would Valerie Plame call you, under guise or not?
17 - Eric Berlin
About Fitzgerald possibly waiting for political reasons: I doubt that he would do this. I believe he's dotting every single I and crossing every single T, working down to the wire to make sure he gets this thing nailed, because of the enormous and intense scrutiny that will come.
Think of it this way: wouldn't you be careful if you were about to come under the direct spotlight of the White House, Congress, media (MSN, partisan pubs, blogosphere, etc.), and the American and worldwide public?
I would!
18 - Aaman
Good post - you made it to the front page of Google News
19 - Eric Olsen
excellent job again! Can we get a screen shot of the Google News front page?
20 - Aaman
Not currently - but mentioned here
21 - DJRadiohead
EB, I watched Larry King Live last night (still don't know why- oh, it was hafltime of the Virgina Tech/BC game). Chris Dodd kept trying to bring it back to Niger and Iraq, etc. At that point Bob Woodward (Bob Woodward of all people) told Dodd that Republicans AND Democrats signed off on that report (he even said he had a copy of it in his pocket if the senator wanted to challenge him on it). Dodd wanted to keep bringing it back to Iraq, the rest of the panel seemed to not take it that direction.
Representative? No, of course not. However I don't think it will be easy to tie this back into Iraq in a politically meaningful way. It's one thing for a bunch of DC insiders and junkies like us watching political talk shows to hear this argument made. I think Phillip is probably correct about the 'typical' Americans out there. This story won't have relevance until there is an indictment (which should happen today). And when that happens, it will be about the lies and not Iraq.
I also think Democrats will want to be careful how far they push this. A lot of them believed the pre-war intelligence. The Clintons, for instance, both believed Saddam was a threat.
22 - Phillip Winn
Libby was indicted, so we'll see if this turns into anything.
23 - DJRadiohead
Oh I think it has now turned into something. Now we'll see what that something is.
24 - Eric Berlin
To respond to both of your comments, DJR, I think things are just beginning. Rove is still under investigation, and the media focus will only intensify now that the Vice President's top aide (!!!) has been indicted.
The White House will try desperately to "turn the page" -- and the Miers withdrawal was likely part of that -- and we'll see if that works.
In any event, the Bush administration is retreating on multiple fronts after four plus years of drubbing everyone and everything that stood in its way.
25 - Nancy
Let's see: let's tote up the Bush admin Hall of Shame, thus far, shall we? Abramoff, DeLay, Ellis, Frist, Libby, Safavian ... who else? I know I've missed some.
The interesting thing is, that Libby wasn't even on the horizon (as far as the MSM & public were concerned) until the last minute, so to speak. Now, Libby's notes stated that he got his info on Plame from Cheney, which certainly implicates Cheney as the actual source of the info, if not the actual leaker. Mmmm ... and the trail of slimie leads right up into the W.H. ... dare we speculate, right into the Oval Office itself? Sic semper tyrannis.