The races for Governor are shaping up to be the most entertaining and, perhaps, the most important races over the next year, and for years to come. Democrats can take some joy in the Gubernatorial outlook. Of the 38 seats up for grabs in the next year, 24 of them are currently held by Republicans. “People recognize that 2006 is the Super Bowl of governors races,” said Iowa’s Tom Vilsack, a two-term Democratic governor who is not seeking re-election. “You’ve got governors races in all parts of the country, you’ve got them in very key, very critical states that will play a crucial role in 2008.”
Significantly, Democrats have at least a pretty good chance to capture some of the 6 mega-states currently held by Republicans (California, New York, Florida, Texas, Massachusetts, and Ohio), representing nearly half of the American population. It is difficult to see any highly populated states where Republicans can gain in the next election cycle. “There’s no question the landscape is not favorable,” said GOP Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, who is deciding between seeking a second term or making a bid for the presidency.
Overall, Democrats have a fair to good shot at taking over statehouses in Alaska, Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, and maybe Ohio and Hawaii. Republicans, on the other hand, have a decent shot at taking over only Iowa, Virginia, and maybe Kansas.
Partisan redistricting will likely keep the House of Representatives from undergoing a seismic shift, even if this is typically an election season where the party in power undergoes losses. Senate contests are each unique and distorted by the effects of incumbency and spending. Currently Republicans have a slight advantage again going into next years Senate races. That leaves the Governorships, special offices where the winner gets to act as a "mini-President" over their state and exerts considerable influence over everything from the types of laws and policies in the state, to the appointment of high ranking government officials and judges, to the manner in which elections are administered.
Following the 2004 races for Governor, the partisan balance was unchanged. Republicans maintained control of 28 state houses, while Democrats held on to 22. This year, a pair of off-year contests in New Jersey and Virginia will be the first two in a total of 38 races that will take place by the end of 2006.
Article comments
1 - John Bambenek
How about Illinois?
2 - Balletshooz
Illinois is a potential to turn to R, although it is a pretty blue state. It is probably balanced out by Minnesota, which could possible go D.
3 - Eric Berlin
Great job, Balletshooz. I hope you check in again with updates as get closer to election days 2005 and 2006.
It will be interesting to see whether or not Pataki runs again. I could see him bowing out in an effort to bolster his legacy and make a run for the GOP nomination for president in '08.
4 - balletshooz
Thanks you. I surely will. Comments are appreciated from all sides of the aisle, especially for some of the important local bits of information you might know that are missed nationally.
I think Pataki will bow out as well as Romney. A loss for governor in 06 for either of them would hurt their chances in 08.
I just read that in Illinois, Governor Rod B. is in alot of trouble in the polls. Well have to wait and see what happens there.
5 - Eric Berlin
Any chance you'll work up one of these primers for '06 Senate races?
6 - Dave Nalle
You left out Texas, where pseudo-Republican and semi-Neocon Rick Perry is going to be defeated in the primary by common sense Republican Carole Keaton Rylander.
Dave
7 - balletshooz
Eric:
Absolutely, at some point I will.
Dave:
I left out Texas because I cant see that state changing away from R, even if Rick Perry wins the primary, and it is proved he is Osama Bin Laden in disguise. Although the intra-party dynamic there should be interesting, it sort of mirrors the way there are two major categories of Republicans in the US.
8 - Dave Nalle
I think Perry is the same height as Bin Laden....hmmm.
Of course, the balance of power among governors is mostly of academic interest.
Who the governor is matters most to the people in that governor's state, and the more sensible Republicans we gain - like Schwarzenegger and Rylander, the better for the people as a whole. Certainly more appealing than returning anyone from the party with a negative balance in their idea bank.
Dave
9 - RJ
Great post. I'm thinking the GOP has a good shot in Virginia. And they may be able to pull off an upset in New Jersey, where voters are rather disgusted with years of Democrat Party corruption in that state.
10 - mike hollihan
You left out Tennessee. Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen is coming to a lot of grief for his handling of TennCare, the state's upscale version of Medicaid. His approval rating is the lowest its ever been. No Republican candidate has emerged yet, but the popular wisdom is that Bredesen is very beatable now. Republicans are trending well in the State, and the Tennessee Waltz investigation is hurting Democrats.
At worst, it's a tossup.
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