I'm sitting here eating spaghetti in honor of Rudy Giuliani and watching the first returns come in from Florida. Right now McCain is leading by a couple of points, which is about where the polls put him, with Mitt Romney breathing down his neck. Giuliani trails behind and isn't going to even catch up to Romney.
There's not much of a trick to calling this election when we'll have results in a couple of hours. McCain is going to win by more than we expect with a big surge at the last minute. Pensacola will be counted late and will go heavily for McCain. Absentee ballots are counted last and will go heavily for McCain (from the military) and Giuliani (those who voted while he was still a contender). McCain needs a solid victory here, and it's going to defy predictions and not be all that close. He may even win by close to a 10 point margin.
Of course, that's not counting the Giuliani factor. Giuliani's campaign is dead like the meatballs in my spaghetti. Giuliani hates Romney and has a lot in common with McCain. His campaign is disintigrating and leaks are all over the place that he's going to endorse McCain at the most strategic possible moment next week to put the final nail in Romney's coffin. He'll likely give a near endorsement in his speech tonight. Giuliani is going to end up with votes in the mid teens, and to be realistic, those might as well be McCain votes. With the endorsement those New York expatriots in Florida will go for McCain overwhelmingly.
So what we're likely looking at is McCain beating Romney about 8 or 9% and when you throw in the Giuliani votes McCain is effectively well over 50%.
That's a resounding victory in a major state and in some circumstances it might be the end of the primary campaign. The big catch is that everyone except for Romney and Ron Paul is out of money. McCain's campaign bus is running on fumes and Huckabee and Rudy are just as broke. Paul has pointlessly preserved his resources presumably to maximize his delegates so he can influence the platform and Romney who has outspent everyone else already, still has his enormous personal fortune to draw on. A media blitz in the next week at a cost of $30 million or more, might win Romney enough delegates to keep him in the running, so it's too early to count him out.
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Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - Clavos
With 44% of precincts reporting at 8:45 PM, McCain leads Romney 35% to 32%.
BTW Dave, in Florida, absentee ballots include a fairly high proportion of elderly voters too infirm to physically make it to the polls. I don't know exact numbers, but I've heard they outnumber the military in absentee ballots.
The principal factor in the probable record voter turnout is thought to be popular Governor Charlie Crist's personal advocacy and advertising for, a constitutional amendment aimed at providing tax relief for property owners.
The amendment will require a 60% majority to pass, and of course is non partisan in that it benefits everyone who owns property.
In recent weeks, Crist spearheaded a saturation TV campaign to get it passed.
2 - Clavos
Latest reports from Florida, with 51% of precincts in, but few to none from all-important Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties, which comprise South Florida, McCain's lead has widened slightly to 35% vs Romney's 31%.
3 - Clavos
AP and FoxNews just called the Florida Republican primary for McCain at 9:10PM.
4 - Dr Dreadful
Those two soft popping sounds were Arch's and JOM's heads exploding.
5 - Mark
This may be the best campaign run by the guy at 3%. He skipped florida and went to other states with more delegates. As Gman and Huckster will most likely be done after Feb 5th, the only ones with cash are Romney and Paul. Everyone may be surprised come the convention who has the real power.
6 - Dave Nalle
Good one, Dr. D.
McCain is currently at 38% according to the AP.
I wonder if the old folks vote for McCain because he's one of them or Romney because he's the good looking son they wish they had?
Dave
7 - Hold on Rudy!
Yes, your bet on Florida was a big mistake but believe you still learn from your mistake and lead again in the race.
An endorsement to McKain would be catastrophic at least let us see a Romney-Giuliani term because McKain simply can't win.
8 - Clavos
In Florida, most of the old folks vote Democratic (except in Naples, of course!).
9 - Dave Nalle
Why would Giuliani want to be VP under Romney when McCain is going to be the nominee?
dave
10 - Clavos
Heh.
11 - Cap
It's interesting that McCain is somewhat suddenly making a comeback. Last I heard his campaign was all but dead, and yet he's taking the most recent primaries. And Giuliani shot himself in the foot. We all know that. Funny how politics work.
Not so funny though how Clinton has managed to go back on her word. I wonder why it is she wanted that victory? Good media coverage, saying "Look how well I would've beat Obama"? Or maybe it'll backfire and the media will mention the fact that she abandoned her agreement.
12 - Matthew T. Sussman
I see him finishing out the night with 9-11 percent of the vote.
13 - Clavos
Suss, if you're talking about Rudy, Fox is already showing him with 15% with 81% in.
14 - Matthew T. Sussman
Nine... Eleven. Nine... Eleven.
15 - Clavos
OH.
[Sheepishly sidles away]
16 - Baritone
Hillary did not campaign in Florida. Some of Clinton's people made phone calls urging people to vote, but no actual campaigning took place. She only made her appearance after the polls were closed. And, hey, a win is a win.
Dave, just curious. You obviously had a preference for Giuliani, but he wasn't someone you were particularly excited about. Who would you be excited about? If you could hand pick a candidate, who would it be?
B-tone
17 - Clavos
"Hillary did not campaign in Florida."
Not true, B-tone.
She's been here for three days, holding fundraisers and her campaign staff made sure she was talked about on the evening newscasts on all local channels the whole time.
She did break her promise; Barack did not
18 - Clavos
B-tone,
Sorry, she was here only two days:
Clinton in Florida Sunday, according to the Miami Herald.
19 - Baritone
Did anyone notice Mitt tearing up in his concession speech. How dare he lower the level of the campaign with an emotional outburst! What a scumbag.
B-tone
20 - Dave Nalle
Dave, just curious. You obviously had a preference for Giuliani, but he wasn't someone you were particularly excited about. Who would you be excited about? If you could hand pick a candidate, who would it be?
Not sure I had a preference for Giuliani. Of the original slate of Republicans I preferred Thompson probably followed by Ron Paul and then a sort of toss-up between McCain and Giuliani.
If I had my absolute choice of people who could at least consider running my preferences would be Gov. Mark Sanford of SC or Sen. John Sununu of NH or as a long shot Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska.
Of course, I'd like to make Bob Dole immortal and vote for him a few more times.
Dave
21 - Baritone
Clav,
I submitted my mea maxima culpa on Dave's last post regarding Hillary's presence in FL. But, I also point out that she didn't techncically campaign in the state. She attended private fund raisers. I know it's a fine line at best, but as we've acknowledged here and elsewhere, the Clintons are nothing if not opportunistic. Hilary's back is against the wall. They opted to pull out a few stops in an attempt to stem the hemorrhaging of her campaign. Can't say as I like it, but they chose not to consult me.
It should be said, though, that the party went a bit too far in its punishment of both Michigan and Florida. The punishment meted out did in effect disenfranchise the Democratic voters of both states. The Republicans, being, I suppose, a bit more pragmatic, imposed far less drastic penalties.
The states that attempted to move their primaries to or near the head of the line did so in the hope of cashing in on the media feeding frenzy that would bring the states both publicity and money. Can't blame them for trying, I guess.
B-tone
22 - Dave Nalle
Sitting here in the second most populous state in the union with our primary way the hell back in March, I sympathize with the states that tried to move up, but I also see the problem that represents, because if they can do it why can't every state do it? And the end result would be all the primaries on the same day, which would sort of defeat the purpose.
dave
23 - Dr Dreadful
the end result would be all the primaries on the same day, which would sort of defeat the purpose.
Errrr... why?
24 - Dave Nalle
Well, the whole idea of the primaries is to gradually build up momentum towards the general election and to sort out the candidates and give them a chance to present themselves to the public. If it was all focused on one day there wouldn't be anywhere near the opportunities to make speeches and appearances. The end result would be a lot more random and less effective.
Dave
25 - Dr Dreadful
Hmm... Sounds a bit like the way every other country on the planet does it, Dave.
Like in Britain: all the gasbagging and carping over and done with in a few frenzied weeks of campaigning, and then we can all get on with whatever we were doing.
Works for me!