Two tiny towns in New Hampshire are the first to close their polls, and the results look good: while Bush is ahead, he's not as ahead as much as he was in 2000 - there's a 5% shift in favor of the Democratic candidate. While this is obviously a very small sample, it doesn't bode well for the incumbent.
Full story: N.H. Hamlets Cast First Election Day Votes
My prediction: Kerry is going to win. Think about it - Bush barely won 4 years ago, and over the last four years many Republicans have changed parties or decided not to vote at all, while well over half of newly registered voters are Democrats. There's just no way Bush can win - unless something (not so) funny happens at the polls.