With 29 months to go until November 2008, the race for the presidency has already begun. Even before the 2006 congressional elections, presidential wannabes can be found under every rock and behind every tree in any state that’ll have them.
That there’s speculation this early is part of the game, but the fundraising and barnstorming activity that's taking place at this point in the cycle is unusual. One reason, according to Chuck Rund, president of Charlton Research, is that 2008 is the first election since 1952 when there's no obvious standard bearer in either party. According to Rund, that leaves no obvious front runner this early in the game.
Tom Brokaw, in a June 18 Sunday Washington Post column made the same point. "...if we're to believe Dick Cheney and Al Gore about their intentions," there won't be "an incumbent president or a sitting or recently retired vice president...[as] a candidate — which opens the field even more."
The battle for attention has gotten so heated that the June 18th Los Angeles Times headlined a story with, "Presidential Ambitions Distract Senate," as if there was nothing important going on in the country that requires their attention. "There are so many lawmakers considering a run for president that they are practically tripping over each other. The outbreak of ambition adds an 'every man for himself' dynamic to an institution that is already struggling to build consensus on important issues such as how to combat illegal immigration and high gas prices."
"Sen. Richard J. Durbin (D-Ill.) jokes that he is one of the 'designated drivers' of the Senate because he is not running for president. 'We are driving the Senate while so many of our colleagues are intoxicated with the idea of being president,' Durbin said."
The list of Republican Senators considering the brass ring includes (in no particular order):
- Majority Leader Bill Frist (TN), who some claim is using his leadership role to further his presidential ambitions.
- John McCain (AZ), who seems to have a knack of attracting disaffected voters from both parties.
- George Allen (VA), who may be facing his toughest senatorial race this November against Democrat Jim Webb.
- Sam Brownback (KS), who is very close to religious conservatives.
- Chuck Hagel (NE), a solid conservative who has distanced himself from Bush's Iraq war policies.
Democrats are also well represented:
- Hillary Clinton (NY) — how'd she get listed first?
- Evan Bayh (IN), who presents an attractive centrist perspective and was also governor of Indiana for two terms.
- Joseph Biden, Jr. (DE) who didn't make it very far in 1988.
- Russell Feingold (WI), whose liberal positions — in particular his call for censure of President Bush because of the domestic wiretapping issues, may play well early on but could hurt him later.
- Barak Obama (IL), who, while a first-term Senator, has been barnstorming the country while receiving rave reviews.
- Chris Dodd, (CT), a liberal in his 5th term.
And one mustn't forget:
- John Kerry
- John Edwards
- Former VA Governor Mark Warner
- NY Governor George Pataki
- MA Governor Mitt Romney
- Former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani
Four of the Republicans converged on Iowa yesterday (Saturday), and the state's Republican chairman, Ray Hoffman, commented, "It's never been this early." Of course, they all claimed they were there to help raise money for the 2006 congressional elections.
Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - JustOneMan
What about Al "the sky is falling, the sky is falling" Gore? Why hasnt the msm identified him? I am sure we know why..dont we?
2 - Steve
Indeed, your election campaigns in the US start earlier and earlier it seems, which is why I hope Canadians do not follow the US lead in having fixed election dates. They seem to put too much focus on campaigning and fundraising instead of policies and action. Not a healthy thing in my view.
3 - Dave Nalle
Senators don't get elected president. Doesn't happen. The few - very few - times it has happened, the results have been far from satisfying. Your list from the two parties is more likely a list of also-rans or of VP candidates than of card-toppers.
BTW, draft Sanford.
Dave
4 - JP
I'm personally pulling for Mark Warner or Wes Clark right now, perhaps a Warner/Clark ticket actually, on the Dem side. Clinton will not be elected President.
5 - Glen Boyd
What about Condy? She's a pretty major omission from your list I'd say.
-Glen
6 - mschannon
I can't believe I forgot Al Gore! Shame on me.
Actually, Kennedy, Nixon, and Johnson were all Senators, although not when elected president, but you're right, Dave, that it's unlikely. The point of the article, as I noted at the end, is that this isn't going to be final list...it's how soon and how aggressively the campaigning has started. Also, that these are the people that are getting talked about the most.
I probably should have thrown Wes Clark in too, but I wasn't trying to deliver a complete list at this point. That'd be almost impossible.
What to me is interesting is how seriously people are taking '08, both citizens and pols. What's going to be fun is to watch how the candidates and issues emerge and evolve.
In Decaf Veritas
7 - Steve
I think your suggested match would be a good one JP. I agree, Clinton has no chance.
8 - Arch Conservative
You're right JP....Hillary will not be elected..........neither will mccain.
If Condaleeza got elected how would all the liberals and dems be able to continue to call all conservatives and republicans racists?
It ain't gonna be John Kerry or Al Gore.... been there done that no thanks.........
I'm hoping for George Allen.
9 - Dave Nalle
Actually, Kennedy, Nixon, and Johnson were all Senators, although not when elected president
That last part is the key thing. They'd all done something else to prove themselves. No one like Senators, plus they have records to run on and that's always risky. Of the Senators you mention Clinton seems like the most appealing because she's the least obviously corrupted by long term association with the Senate.
Dave
10 - Arch Conservative
If the gop wins again in 08 I hope the new president, whoever he is snubs hillary very chance he gets.....inviting all kinds of senators and congressmen to the white house except her......
having his staff call her late at night to tell her how much jerry falwell is enjoying the lincoln bedroom
man i hate that bitch!
11 - Silas Kain
My ultimate fantasy is that the major parties each nominate a woman in 2008. Hillary Clinton vs. Christie Todd Whitman. Talk about sending Conservatives and Liberals over the edge! We need a Presidential Election that will galvanize the electorate.
12 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
What is in that Jameson's you're drinking Mark? Forty months to go till November 2008?. Try 29 months! You wouldn't happent to need a bookkeeper, per chance?
13 - RogerMDillon
"If Condaleeza got elected..."
You'd awake from your dream hours later. She won't even get a sniff at the nomination. You can talk a good game, but your mindset gives you away. You wrote, "I hope the new president, whoever he is..." Thanks for playing.
14 - Glen Boyd
The Democratic field looks pretty uninspiring on paper so far and Hilary doesn't have a prayer. I'm sorry, she's just too polarizing a figure to win the big one, regardless of her name recognition.
I can't see Gore running again, at least not successfully, and I think Kerry's 2004 campaign leaves him as pretty much damaged goods. John Edwards on the other hand? Could be a dark horse.
I used to like Joe Biden a lot, but didnt he get caught up in a plagarism thing that derailed his last run for the White House? It'd be like Gary Hart running again I think.
On the Republican side, I'm just glad another Bush isn't in the mix. Jeb's not planning on a run correct? God, I hope not. Please say not another fricking Bush okay?
I've always liked John McCain but I can't see the GOP establishment getting behind him during the primaries and the nomination process. I don't think they view as the sort of true ideologue the activists would support, even though for my money he's one of the most intelligent politicians out there.
For such a wide open race, I'm not really seeing anyone who gets me too excited.
-Glen
15 - Nancy
I wish Colin Powell would run - but his wife won't let him, plus he's a man of integrity & has already been screwed during his brief tenure among the bottom feeders surrounding Junior. I think he's had his fill of politics, more's the pity.
Don't count Kerry out: he's making noises like he plans to run again, God help us all! Jesus H. Christ - between the fecklessness of the Dems, & the corrupt sqalor of the GOP, we need a 3rd party. I swear to god if Al Qaida were to set up a 3rd party platform, I'd consider it as long as they weren't affiliated with either group of currently entrenched congressional scumbags.
16 - gonzo marx
Colin Powell? fuck no...he lost any chance he had at "integrity" after the whole UN WMD speech fiasco
as for Condi, or Whitman...either have much LESS a chance than Giuliani of surviving Iowa/NH/SC primaries...much less Super Tuesday...however, a McCain/Whitman ticket could win a general election if played right
my bet is for the GOP to put up McCain as the "annointed"...with a MUCH younger "born again" candidate...so that Falwell and his ilk can crank out the holy roller vote by promising to pray for McCain's martyrdom when they get into office , so their boy can declare himself "Pope of America"
but i digress...
on the Dem side...scratch the GOP fever dream of Hilary or Edwards...Hil may take it, but if so...lose the general election...Edwards has NO chance..a 1 term senatro who couldn't even carry his home state in '04...puh-leeEEEEeeeeeze
Evan Bayh best bet so far fer the Dems...
but i would guess that some midwest or southern governor or ex-governor will toss his hat in for '08 out of the blue
we will see....November is FAR more important to the Nation...
but yas knew that
Excelsior?
17 - Nancy
Colin was too trusting; he was given bad info & passed it on, thinking it was 'real' when actually he got lied to like the rest of us. I think he was set up, m'self. Junior didn't like that Powell wouldn't lick his ass like the rest of them do.
18 - gonzo marx
well Nancy..either way, i just can't go for him...
if he was "set up"..then he is incompetent to run the Nation, if he was "in" on it...then, well you know...
since he was a member of the Joint Chiefs among other military duties, he fucking well KNOWS how the Intel community is, so he doesn't get a pass for Ignorance on this one...
hey..we are speculating here...i'll go with what i typed
(BTW, good to *see* yer doing better Nancy, get well soonest!)
Excelsior?
19 - Dave Nalle
Gonzo is living in the common fantasy world where he thinks that the best candidate gets the nomination. If that were the case Kerry probably never would have gotten nominated - you could see his problems coming down the road early in the primaries.
The best ticket for the GOP would be Giuliani with someone like Tancredo or Brownback to motivate the ultraconservatives and/or fundamentalists. It has the key combination of an older moderate local politician with a younger conservative legislator which has been the winning GOP combo every time they've won since WW2. This is a combination which would beat almost anything the Dems could offer. While the GOP has a record of picking that kind of smart combo, that doesn't mean that they will this time. I have a feeling that this is the year the party sits back and lets the various extremes humiliate and destroy themselves by offering up a completely impractical ticket.
As for the Democrats, they ALWAYS go for mediocrity. They pass over the better qualified and more exciting canddiates who have ideas to go for the candidate who won't ruffle any feathers or else they pick a dark horse who is non-threatening but an outsider. Look around for the next Dukakis and tack on a loony as a running mate and you've got the ticket.
Dave
20 - gonzo marx
and comment #19 proves once again that value of Haliburton stock + tax cuts = selling soul to Rovian "family values" and shows that this commenter suffers from having too large a stick wedged up his ass, thus inhibiting him from even seeing his toes...much less his dick..
"yes your Honor, it's tru...he has no dick" Ghostbusters
but i digress...
spare me the snark...i gave an honest assessment based on my thinnking around past and current circumstances...
where do you see me doing the "fantasy land" bit of pointing out "the best"?
nice try at smearing, typical, in fact...
how about this, toss out yer own Opinion...critique if you have something insightful to share...but keep yer ad hominems in with yer grits
just a Thought
Excelsior?
21 - Nancy
The only GOP criteria in the past several elections they've won seems to have been who they could foist off on the public who would also dance best to the strings pulled by Big Business & sell out those they were pledged to serve & protect.
As for the Dems, I don't know what the hell is the problem with them. It's like, having had Bill (who, while sexually predatory & at least as slick as any of the GOP-ers who tried to prosecute him), now they've blown their mental & political wad & they're running around without a plan, a center, or any particular reason to exist...or rather, they've got too many plans, centers, and reasons to exist. They need to pare them down, throw out the loonie fringe, and get a platform besides We-Aren't-The-GOP.
22 - Dave Nalle
Sheesh, gonzo. I'll remember not to mention your name in the future. I was just using you as an example since you were the most recent person to make an optimistic projection. As for my 'smearing', how is it a smear to inject a note of realism into the discussion. It's not like it's a bad thing to be idealistic, which is basically what I accused you of. God forbid someone accuse me of having a positive worldview.
Might want to rein in the paranoia just a tad, Gonzo.
Dave
23 - gonzo marx
comment #22 sez...
*Sheesh, gonzo. I'll remember not to mention your name in the future.*
best...news....all....year!
nuff said
Excelsior?
24 - Dave Nalle
Nancy, your mistaken assumption is that there are ANY nominable candidates who won't "dance best to the strings pulled by Big Business & sell out those they were pledged to serve & protect" at least as you see it.
Some of us see that as representing the best economic interests of the country and protecting the nation despite endless carping from the opposition. But then we don't all think that a strong economy is a sign that satan is at work.
Dave
25 - Dave Nalle
Oh, and as far as projections, I'm not about to make one. It's way too early. I can tell you who I'd like to see in the White House, but at this point I have no reason to believe it will happen. The perfect combination IMO would be Rudy Giuliani and Mark Sanford, but it's not going to happen because they're both state/local politicians and Sanford is the wrong kind of conservative. But I'll take any president so long as Sanford gets the VP slot as a platform for pushing his agenda.
Dave