Republican hopeful Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas, would lose badly to any of the top three Democratic presidential candidates, according to the latest CNN poll. He'd lose to Hillary Clinton by 10 points, to Barack Obama by 15, and by a whopping 25 points to former Senator John Edwards.
The fact that Edwards often comes out on top in the electability horse race ought to be as big a story as Huckabee's ascendance in the Republican field. This is only the latest poll to show Edwards beating potential Republican opponents by larger margins than Clinton or Obama. But Edwards's populist passion on the stump, hardworking campaign organization (especially in Iowa), and excellent general election poll numbers aren't getting him into the mainstream media. Why? Mainly because he refuses to accept special-interest money, working instead within the system of federal matching funds that the other major candidates have declined. Hence he doesn't have the budget for as much nationwide exposure as Clinton or Obama.
Part of Edwards's high poll numbers may simply stem from his having fewer negatives than the other top-tier Democrats. A lot of people, including important swing voters, don't like Hillary Clinton, for reasons that are at root primarily sexist. Obama, despite his star quality, faces a racial barrier, and many consider him insufficiently experienced. Edwards, however, is a white male Southerner, just like the last two successful Democratic presidential candidates.
Edwards is the most progressive of the top three Democrats, and his positions have populist appeal, in line with Democratic America, which, confronted with an enormous health care crisis and disgusted with the persistence of widespread poverty, is swinging generally leftward. Importantly, Edwards also gets points for sincerity, and the American electorate is serious about sincerity, as Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton are finding out to their dismay. (On the Republican side, Rudolph Giuliani has benefitted from being forthcoming about his rather wretched personal life and his support for liberal positions on social issues.)
In sum, Edwards has two big things going for him, and no major negatives except the big one: not enough money. Something is wrong with this picture, but we all knew that.
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Article comments
1 - Barbara Barnett
I felt so validated in seeing those poll numbers, and then I wondered why he's in third place amongst democrats. Obama and Clinton have been pushed and pulled to the forefront by the mainstream media for a year as a mega contest. Lots of fun for the talking heads, but not a reflection of reality.
Also--I love the Guthrie Asch recordings. I have some of those on 78 rpm discs. I was raised on a steady diet of Guthrie and the Weavers!
Barbara Barnett
2 - Pam Johnson
I agree with your comments about John Edwards. I am an Afro-American female who is not in love with Hillary or Obama. Edwards resonates with me and the other females in the family. I still thing that Edwards has a great chance to squeak through. We already know who he is.
3 - Jacob
The decision voters have is simple:
1. Do they want a Democrat indebted to and controlled by big money?
2. Do they want a Republican indebted to and controlled by big money?
3. Do they want someone not controlled by big money?
The choice should be obvious.
4 - REMF
Montana For Obama!!
- MCH
5 - Baronius
There are two important things to remember about these kinds of matchup polls. You noted one of them, that they measure lack of negatives rather than positives. The other is that the impression of a candidate changes as he gets the nomination.
- win after win reinforces the positive image
- constant press coverage
- party unity behind the candidate
- the convention
- the other candidate's gaffes
6 - Dave
Thank you for making these obvious points. With few signs that the mainstream media's deliberate sidelining of Edwards will abate, I can only hope that Iowa caucus-goers are aware of Edwards' strength in general election match ups, and take that into serious consideration on Jan 3.
7 - handyguy
McCain leads on the Republican side in these same polls. Part of the reason is that most 'normal' people haven't been paying close attention to the race yet. McCain and Edwards have more national name recognition.
Iowa and NH are small states, but the likely primary voters there have been paying more attention [not all of it voluntarily - I'm sure TV and radio are saturated there]. Many of them are 'true believer' conservatives and liberals who are looking for new faces. Thus they go for candidates who haven't run before.
I'm an Edwards supporter, but describing this poll and the discrepancies in which candidates are considered front runners as evidence of the prejudices of the mainstream media and pundits is just foolish paranoia.
Chris Matthews does great coverage of this sort of thing, btw. Worth watching every night. He has real guests, who disagree with him and each other, and the show is becoming a must-watch for the politically informed.
8 - Zedd
Baronius, Jon
I think that we are ignoring a very important factor.
There has always been a viable White male candidate running for office. That is not news. We have for the first time a White Female and a Black male who have a very good chance of being President of the United States.... leader of the free world. That is news. It's huge! It's an important marker in our evolution as a nation and it should be followed closely. With our history?
Also with both of these candidates it's a "what came first, the chicken or the egg" scenario. They both brought something to cover before they were followed. Obama was raising eyebrows and gaining momentum with little coverage prior to his bid until the media had to stand up and notice. Hillary is who she is... She is after all the former first lady. The most openly viable one since Eleanor Roosevelt; a controversial and therefore titillating figure. Off course she is going to get coverage.
It dulls the discourse to simply jump to media bias when ever a political topic is presented. I'm hoping that we can start getting to the meat of the matter instead of waddling the the talk radio stigh.