The army has sent about 15,000 men into the area supported by helicopter gunships against about 4000 lightly armed Taliban whose main advantages are situational, as they already control strongpoints and have a panicked civilian population to hide behind.
Despite the concern about the chaos in Pakistan and the oft-repeated concern that Taliban forces are within 50 miles of the capital, the truth is that the tribal and ethnic divisions in Pakistan are geographical, and the unsettled conditions in the north of the country and particularly Waziristan are unlikely to spread farther south so long as the government remains in control of the army and continues to have the support of the civilian population in the Punjab and Sindh regions.
However, with the Taliban having almost free reign over the very long border between Pakistan and Afghanistan, their ability to spread chaos and violence is not going to go away unless something is done to bring Afghanistan under control, and the longer conflict continues the more ineffective it renders the Pakistani government and military whose participation is essential to bringing peace to the region.
Article comments
1 - Dan(Miller)
Dave, I don't quite grasp the last sentence in which you appear to suggest that support from Iran [for Pakistan's military] . . . is essential to bringing peace to the region.
I assume that Iran would expect to gain substantially from what you seem to suggest, but don't understand why Pakistan would be willing to pay what could be a very high price, or why her current allies would acquiesce.
This is merely a question; I have no better alternative to suggest.
Dan(Miller)
2 - Dave Nalle
Iran is the other big player in the region. I was writing in terms of stabilizing Afghanistan, though Iran could play a role in Baluchistan as well. If Iran could be persuaded to turn against the Taliban -- who are not Shiites and therefore religiously at odds with them anyway, it would help take pressure off of the US and Pakistan on that front.
Dave
3 - Ruvy
Dave, Dan,
Dave, you certainly realize, something you should state up-front that Pakistan is terribly divided. Essentially the country represents an idea - that Moslems should not have to live under Hindu rule. Tat said, the second largest Moslem population on the planet is in - wait for it - India!
So, the very concept of Pakistan is a failure.
Therefore, what you need to say right up front, is that in addition to having an army that is divided, a secret service that created the Taliban, and a civilian government that is burying its head in the sand, it is bitterly divided among Sindhis, Baluchis, Pathans and a whole bunch of others who, besides than being Moslems and being willing to speak Urdu, share little in common and no love for each other.
Dan, Afghanistan has never been really subdued by a foreign power. It will not be subbdued now, unless the yosefzai, rabanizai, and afridi, representing the Israelite tribes of Yosef, Reuven and Efraim, decide they have something better to do than scream alláh hu akbár!! while beheading kaffirs on video.
4 - Cindy
From what I have read there might be a couple more problems, similar to the problems faced by the US military forces in trying to fight in Afghanistan. I'll post the article here when I find it.
I found you on twitter. Your 'inexplicable' following is likely a result of this comment in your bio: Chairman of the Republican Liberty Caucus