Democrats Jon Corzine and Timothy Kaine have won the off-year gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia. In New Jersey, Sen. Corzine won, 53-44 percent, with more than 95 percent of the ballots counted. With 99 percent of the ballots counted, Virginia Lt. Governor Kaine won, 52-46 percent, despite last-minute campaigning by President Bush for his opponent, former Attorney General Kilgore. Analysts had termed both races too close to call.
Traditional Republican strongholds, like northern Virginia, went Democratic. Given that these off-year elections are sometimes used as a crystal ball for the following mid-term elections, what does this mean for the Republican party? After all, in 1993, Republicans captured Virginia and New Jersey; in 1994, the party swept into power in Congress.
There can be little joy at the White House. A Pew survey released today put Bush's job approval rating at 36 percent, the lowest of his presidency in this survey. It is down from 40% in October and 50% at the start of the year. He is suffering a large drop among moderate/liberal republicans (from 82% approval in January to 66% in November).
Virginia is historically a Republican-leaning state; Bush took Virginia by 9% last year. However, counties where popular Governor John Warner had lost four years ago turned Democrat this year. AP Political reporter Ron Fournier contends that "Bush put his wispy political prestige on the line in the Virginia governor's race and lost Tuesday when the candidate he embraced in a last-minute campaign stop was soundly defeated."
University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato: "Is it a harbinger? Who knows. But it's unadulterated bad news for Bush and the Republican Party and great news for Democrats as they attempt to make a comeback in 2006."
But Ken Mehlman, chairman of the Republican National Committee, contends, "[New Jersey is] a tough state, and our candidate was overwhelmingly outspent." As for Virginia, he said that since 1973, the party that took the White House had lost the governorship in Virginia the following election.
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This article first appeared at uspolitics.about.com.
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