While the Democrats are certainly their own worst enemies, as demonstrated by passing a health care bill which is overwhelmingly opposed by the public and will likely lead to the loss of the House and Senate in 2010, that may just be the beginning of the challenges to their current political ascendancy.
The voters you alienate in one year can probably be won back in the next, though the level of anger against the Democrats is so high now that it may take more than a year and more than a few more earmarks to get back in the good graces of the voters. But it's a lot harder to fight against the implacable forces of demographics, and they're turning against the Democrats too.
In an article in National Journal, Richard E. Cohen observes that preliminary projections of the 2010 Census have been released and they point to a demographic trend which is not surprising, but which is going to be very significant for the nation's political future. Population is shifting from the northeast and midwest to the southeast and southwest and that means from Democrat-dominated blue states to Republican-dominated red states.
To some extent this is also a fate which Democrats have brought on themselves. The states losing population and seats in Congress are run by Democrat legislatures, administrations, and city governments. These are states which Democrats have chronically mismanaged for years. They are overtaxed and burdened with debt, unfriendly to businesses and as a result saddled with high unemployment and declining populations. People want to get out of states like New York and Ohio and Indiana and Michigan and they're moving south to states which are better managed, where people are taxed less, the cost of living is lower, and there are jobs. Not coincidentally these states like Texas and Florida and Georgia and South Carolina are largely run by Republicans.
The shift in seats in Congress is substantial. Cohen analyzes it as an 11 seat shift in Congress, but it's really potentially much more than that. If you count borderline states which leaned Democrat in 2008 the shift is closer to 18 seats and that's almost enough to turn the House of Representatives over to the Republicans even without any major change in voter preferences.
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Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - Heloise
It's cold in Chicago and lots of folks are moving to Texas. In fact heard that we were #1 in new residents and Wyoming #2. I moved there in 1995 and there was a wave of both legal and illegal residents right behind me and the tide has continued since.
This does not bode well for Dems you're right. I voted for Perry and Obama and Bush...go figure. Michigan is a sorry state and people are leaving in droves.
There are so many yanks teaching schools in Texas it's not even funny. I wondered if it was because of Texas not so hot public school system or because people were leaving states like New Jersey and Michigan like it was on fire?
Anyway, I am not going anywhere and will continue to vote for GOP governors.
Heloise
2 - Arch Conservative
What good is replacing useless Democrats with useless Republicans going to do the citizens Dave?
Yes Texas is the reddest of red states. So are you Texans just going to roll over while the New World Order builds their North American Super highways right at your doorstep or are you going to stand up and do something about it?
3 - jman
everyone is surely leaving CA
4 - Christine
Didn't Alabama Congressman (Parker Griffith) switch to the Republican party this week?
"Our nation is at a crossroads and I can no longer align myself with a party that continues to pursue legislation that is bad for our country, hurts our economy, and drives us further and further into debt."
Let's hope more Dems and voters see the light.
5 - Silas Kain
Indeed, Christine, but is the GOP in its present form the alternative? I think not. We need a vibrant political system which affords more opportunities for alternative parties like Libertarians, Whigs and Constitutionalists. We have to break the spine of the two party system and put the jackasses and elephants on notice. As much as conservatives detest Bernie Sanders, one cannot take away from him the fact that he's his own man. He has adhered to his principles, without equivocation. He's one of the few members of Congress who doesn't place a price tag on his votes. That's what the rest of them should do. I'd have more respect for the ultra conservatives if they would establish their own party like the Christian Republican party or Christian Democrat Party. If they're going to use God, let them proclaim the good news right from the git-go.
I wish that more voters would see the light but it is not to be. Most voters think that their vote only counts in Presidential elections. I would rather see voters cast ballots when they count most - in the off years or in special elections. Not to sound like a broken record, but I can't even begin to tell you how disturbed I am by the lack of voter involvement in this election to replace Ted Kennedy. Massachusetts, the cradle of American liberty, is the least patriotic of the original 13 colonies. We've completey forgotten the scarifices made by the original settlers in forging a new nation. That, Christine, is immorality.
In the meantime, have a wonderful Christmas and may good health, prosperity and peace find its way into your heart and your family in the coming New Year!
6 - Heloise
Spain is doing the super highway. They will be right at home because it's official: Spanish the official tongue of USA. Can you beat that Arch?
7 - Christine
Very good points, Silas. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you and your family!
Hope 2010 is better than 2009...olitically and personally!
8 - Christine
politically. My cat is on my lap wanting attention. lol
9 - Dr Dreadful
I don't think Dave's prediction necessarily follows. Is Joe P. Citizen necessarily going to start voting Republican just because he's moved from Massachusetts to Mississippi?
In the short term there might be some shift in power, but in the long term this will probably get balanced out as some states which are currently red start to turn blue.
10 - Cynde L. Hammond
I hadn't heard about Congressman Griffith's (Alabama) switch to the Republican party, but I really like what he had to say. It shows that he has some integrity.
I also agree with the comment about forming a third party (Libertarian/Constitutionalist), and the more I hear of what Ron Paul has to say, the more sense I think he makes. He does not make any apologies for strictly following the guidelines of the Constitution, nor does he shrink from following the leading of the Lord.
I, too, am disappointed in the level of involvement by our voters. Don't they realize what a privilege it is to vote and that it's the only way we have of making sure our voices are heard?
Thanks for listening and Merry Christmas!
11 - Dave Nalle
Cynde. Ron Paul is a Republican. And he's sticking with the GOP because he can see that it's easier to change the GOP and return it to constitutional values than it is to start a new party from scratch and try to win voters away from the Republicans while running with the same positions on so many issues.
As for Democrat immigrants in the red states and how they vote, one hopes that the experience of losing their job and seeing the debacle which Democrat rule has caused in their prior state would wake them up and make them aware that it's fiscally responsible government which differentiates the states like Texas from the failed states of the northeast and midwest.
Dave
12 - Silas Kain
Well, time to eat humble pie. Our illustrious Attorney General has earned my vote for Senate after all. Yesterday her office issued details of a suit she brought against an insurance agent which has been a long time in coming. I've consistently lamented at the AG's lack of action in insurance fraud. The case she announced yesterday isn't politically motivated - if it were she would have released it at a better time from the perspective of news cycles. So, I'm willing to give Senator Coakley the benefit of the doubt. She's got two years to prove herself as a Senator, and with this action she has proved herself worthy of my vote.
With regard to Ron Paul, he's far from a Republican. He's Libertarian. And, for what it's worth, my car was the only one in my community which had a Ron Paul for President bumper sticker during the entire 2008 Presidential campaign.
Finally, I would like to thank Barack Obama and the Democrat Leadership for giving the American people the greatest Christmas present of the decade - a reason to vote them all out of office for pushing this health care bill to the next level.
13 - Cobra
What are you folks talking about?
The core of the Republican Party relies almost exclusively on a White voting bloc.
What happened last year?
"Overall, whites1 made up 76.3% of the record 131 million people who voted in November's presidential election, while blacks made up 12.1%, Hispanics 7.4% and Asians 2.5%. The white share is the lowest ever, yet is still higher than the 65.8% white share of the total U.S. population."
By 2020 the White share will 70%. By 2032 it will be 63%. Don't forget that President Obama carried 50% of all Whites voters under 30 years old, which makes the change generational, and CERTAINLY means that the demographic future for a DIVERSE, INCLUSIVE party like the Democrats is pretty damn bright.
--Cobra
14 - El Bicho
The title is off since nothing has been added as of yet and there are no woes currently. It's a little early to take Dave's warped view of the world as gospel
15 - Dan(Miller)
Silas,
I'd have more respect for the ultra conservatives if they would establish their own party like the Christian Republican party or Christian Democrat Party. If they're going to use God, let them proclaim the good news right from the git-go.
Not for me. I am an agnostic and I am a conservative; maybe even an "ultra conservative," as you put it. I detest the things the Democratic Party has been up to of late, and some voice of sanity has to prevail; soon. A tad more sanity in the Republican Party would be a boon as well.
It might be interesting were there multiple political parties, but that doesn't seem at the moment to be an option. So, it seems that we conservative agnostics and others need to find some accommodation with the religious right. I have no idea whether, or how, that might happe -- maybe Neptune or some other pagan god knows; I don't, but unless it happens, we have a big mess with which to deal, and I don't see much light at the end of the tunnel.
Dan(Miller)
16 - Dr Dreadful
I might have guessed you'd be a Neptune worshipper, Dan... :-)
17 - Dan(Miller)
Well, Doc, I must confess. Back when we were sailing, Neptune and I would happily share a tot of rum at daybreak; I assume that Neptune enjoyed his little bit of the tot I dumped overboard, and he never complained (as far as I know) that it was just a tad less than half. Please don't tell him.
Anyway, and consistently with my linked article, Merry Christmas or whatever.
Dan(Miller)
18 - FitzBoodle
Consider the sorry state of the republicans.
They made the fight over Healthcare. They refused every offer of bi-partisanship from the White House. They threw down the gauntlet and drew the line in the sand.
The republicans setup to make a "Waterloo" (I suppose they intended it to be Obamas Waterloo, and not their own). Pretty bold. But bold threats have consequences. 2500 years ago Aeschylus said "who draws the sword against the King must discard the scabbard". Most people can figure out the import of that statement, but apparently not the fat and lazy repubs who thought they could get everything they want just by bullying, so they would be spared a real fight.
They miscalculated. The SCOTUS (ironically composed of rabid republicans) must throw out the Mandate and the Anti-abortion clauses based on Equal Protection and Stare Decisis, though they may hate to do so.
The health reform will emerge unscathed and free of those loathsome prejudices.
The repubs have painted themselves into a corner with their blustering.
19 - Dave Nalle
Cobra, you can keep talking about how the GOP is a party of white people and non-inclusive, but the fact is that the GOP is a party based on principles which have nothing to do with race, and people of all races who embrace those principles are welcomed in the party. As I've pointed out many times before, members of minority groups who do join the GOP find themselves welcomed enthusiastically and made to feel at home.
I realize that the left has a vested interest in telling minorities that they cannot succeed and cannot think for themselves, but when they realize that it's all lies meant to kept them servile and dependent then they will come to the GOP where they are treated as equals.
Dave
20 - Cobra
Dave writes:
"As I've pointed out many times before, members of minority groups who do join the GOP find themselves welcomed enthusiastically and made to feel at home."
Where does this happen? At anti-Obama teabagger parties? During Health Care town hall meetings? In the midst of ACORN undercover college-punk sting videos? While riding alongside Minutemen border patrols?
Come on, Dave. The base of today's GOP is basically a loose amalgamation of corporate money changers, pro-life ideologues and Confederate nostalgists. The loudest voices in the party are right-winged zealots who most conscious minorities abhor.
Reasonable Republicans who actually want government to work are cast as "RINOs" by the reactionaries, while anti-intellectuals and insipid cults of personality like Sarah Palin are lionized.
Hell, Ronald Reagan would be labeled a "RINO" by this hard right crowd by their standards.
Now Dave, I understand your point. The Principles of the GOP may have nothing to do with race. I cannot say the same thing for the policies, platforms, candidates, elected officials and supporters of the GOP.
--Cobra
21 - Ruvy
Still peddling delusions, Dave? The Republocrats are one big mafia with two heads. You have one Fascist party in the United States - the Republocrats - carefully designed to look like two competing parties. It's just like Poland or Bulgaria under the commies - but done up a lot more convincingly.
So many of you Americans just cannot see the truth - the "democrats" represent the bankers, an the "republicans" represent the oilmen. But it's all one overarching elite that ru(i)ns your lives and steals your money. That an intelligent man like you cannot see that surprises me.
22 - Arch Conservative
Ruvy's the only one making any sense on this thread.
They all suck. They're all bought and paid for.
Even this latest opposition to this horrible healthcare bill by the GOP isn't borne of some great concern for this nation but it is rather a pure political move....the public doesn't support the bill and the GOP wants to pick up as many seats as possible in congress next year so they oppose it.
It's all a big game and they've become very good at it as evidenced by the amount of bickering that people on thie site an at large do about which party is going to deliver us to shang gri la.
I'm not in the habit of quoting Kennedy's but i think this one from JFK is quite germane to the times we're living in.....
"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible, make violent revolution inevitable."
tick tock, tick tock
23 - Arch Conservative
but on a more upbeat, cherry festive, holiday note I found this story which proves that there is still some justice being meted out in this world......
Apparently Bernie Madoff was roughed up pretty badly in prison but the official story is he "fell out of bed"
Enjoy...
24 - Dave Nalle
Where does this happen? At anti-Obama teabagger parties?
Yes. I previously provided video, in fact.
During Health Care town hall meetings?
Yes. Again, I previously provided video.
In the midst of ACORN undercover college-punk sting videos?
Not so far. Plus he's a grad student.
While riding alongside Minutemen border patrols?
The Minutemen aren't generally GOP members. They tend to be independents.
Come on, Dave. The base of today's GOP is basically a loose amalgamation of corporate money changers, pro-life ideologues and Confederate nostalgists. The loudest voices in the party are right-winged zealots who most conscious minorities abhor.
Bullshit propaganda, as usual. Go to HHR spend some time there. Inform yourself.
Reasonable Republicans who actually want government to work are cast as "RINOs" by the reactionaries,
Big government Republicans are history. They will not be tolerated in the future. Small government works better anyway.
while anti-intellectuals and insipid cults of personality like Sarah Palin are lionized.
Or so the media would have you believe. It depresses me that you provide such clear evidence that the big lie theory really is true.
Dave
Hell, Ronald Reagan would be labeled a "RINO" by this hard right crowd by their standards.
Now Dave, I understand your point. The Principles of the GOP may have nothing to do with race. I cannot say the same thing for the policies, platforms, candidates, elected officials and supporters of the GOP.
25 - Dr Dreadful
Did the end of that last one go a bit squiffy?
Triptophan kicking in, Dave...?