The numbers are there. It’s not outside the realm of possibility that George Bush will be facing a Democratic Congress for the last two years of his term. Democrats winning the House is more likely than their winning the Senate, but the level of volatility and the enormity of the issues leave the pundits staring into crystal balls that are more cloudy than clear.
A month ago, we analyzed the traditional view of Congressional elections – that they are primarily driven by local issues — in the article “Voter '06 Congressional Election Intentions: Keep Your Tea Leaves Handy.” The question that everyone’s asking and no one can answer is will national and international issues be unusually powerful in determining voter behavior in November – and which party will benefit? (It needs to be noted that some of these interviews were conducted before the latest war in the Mideast.)
As Ben Benenson, editor of Congressional Quarterly Politics (CQ) noted:
“There hasn’t been an election with this degree of instability in many years...perhaps going back to 1980 with the Iran hostage going on, an energy crisis, stagflation, and runaway inflation. This kind of confluence of issues is very unusual, and if the Democrats have their way, Bush is going to be on the ballot symbolically, and the Republicans can’t avoid that.”
Scott Reed, a senior Republican strategist, in an interview, noted, “Iraq, immigration, Bush’s popularity, gas prices, the state of the economy—polls are showing a lot more anxiety about the direction the economy is going in, and all these are often barometers for midterm elections.”
Chuck Rund, president of Charlton Research, believes that the overall issue structure both for ’06 and the presidential election in ’08 are motivating people to take more interest in the elections. “The numbers say that this is an important election.”
So if non-local issues play a role, what are they, and which party can best capitalize on them?
America’s Image and Role in World Events
Polls show that Americans are more concerned than ever about their image in the world and more confused than ever about America’s rightful role in world events. “It’s something the American people are addressing,” Rund said, “even though they haven’t come to a consensus about it.”
Article comments
1 - Jet in Columbus
All Bush has to do is keep being his party's worst enemy and the Dems will have it made.
Tantum meus sententia
Jet
2 - Mark Schannon
Were it only that easy. The more I study the political system, the more complex and mysterious it gets. And check out the section on Security again--unless something really horrible happens, it's going to be a GOP strategy & it's a powerful one...especially because, as I'll write about later, the Democrats are tongue-tied.
In Jameson Veritas
3 - Jet in Columbus
The downfall of the democratic party will be motivation. Bible beating church goers were motivated to go to the polls in bus loads. The Dems can't find an issue for that purpose.
Bush always screams about his Mandate from the People, but truth be told only about half the popular vote, and worse yet-a small percentage of the total population of the US voted for him when you take into account how many didn't vote at all.
With the off year election the Dem's only hope is Bush continuing to screw up.
4 - Matthew T. Sussman
Yes, way more complicated. Locals may continue to support their incumbent representative when they actually favor the other party.
Pie Iesu Domine
Dona Eis requiem
5 - John in Mo.
We have got to get the current Senators out of office for the good of our Countgry. Both parties are at fault in putting us in the current situation.
The silent majority better start being heard before it's too late. We have to go back to represenation for the POEOPLE by the people
6 - Jet in Columbus
So what we need here is to get this country off its complacent asses and go vote before we give away our right to.
Tantum meus sententia
Jet