In terms of an actual war, North Korea’s best options lie with its incalculable ground troops. The nuclear technology is dubious, while the medium-range missiles aimed at South Korea are substandard to their neighbour’s technology. Any sort of definitive outcome would not be favourable for Kim Jong-il’s establishment, but the civilian costs from North Korean counterstrikes on Japan and South Korea could prove colossal.
While the situation cannot be treated with kid gloves, it is also difficult to avow any sort of attitude in regards to the North Koreans without risk. The intimidating postures of the Obama Administration threaten to toss the over-extended troops into further conflict and this may be playing right into Kim Jong-il’s hands. The leader could be seen as defending his people against the cruelty of the West and the war of idealism, couched in decades of misinformation, would not be easily won by Western forces.
The best possible posture may be no posture at all, at least for the time being. North Korea believes “all the world’s a stage” and Kim Jong-il relies on response from the West and his neighbours to stimulate his substantial self-image. The Juche Idea and his regime’s propaganda thrives on the sort of impetus his enemies can bring through belligerent actions.
The United States and its allies must prove to the people of North Korea that they are not enemies. The West cannot presently assume a hostile, hard-line standpoint due to the risks involved.
The Obama Administration should observe from a distance and should stand down from its aggressive threats in North Korean waters. The international community should press allies to remain guarded and for continued negotiation involving the Chinese. China has twice cut off supplies to the regime, so a similar approach could have an impact as North Korea will not risk conflict with its more powerful neighbours.
Additionally, Kim Jong-il is at a period of transition and will name one of his three sons as a successor. Perhaps the change will open a brighter future for diplomatic opportunity and perhaps cooler heads will ultimately prevail.
Article comments
1 - Ruvy
Nice job, Jordan. Nice to see something other than jíbaras on America's supreme court as a political topic being discussed.
You did a good job of explaining much of North Korea's political culture.
At the moment, it appears that the best possible customer for North Korean technology is some Arab country bent on destroying us in Israel. The only question is whether the Arab country(ies) in question can pony up enough money to pay the North Koreans sufficiently.
One of the very few westerners who spent extensive time in North Korea, Prof. Stephen Fox, suggested that Israel try to find some way to engage the North Koreans.
But I have not seen hide nor hair of Prof. Fox in two years or so.