The Chinese have long been considered the closest thing the North Koreans have to an ally in the region, although they appear to be having trouble keeping some semblance of control. The relationship appears to be weakening between the two countries, with the Kim Jong-il’s government repeatedly pressing the conception of autonomy and antagonism towards outside powers.
China, once the brokers of the six-nation disarmament talks, is growing tired of North Korea’s antipathy and views their recent defiance of mediation as a sort of last straw. It is in China’s best interest to keep the North Koreans at bay, especially with the likelihood of immeasurable refugees streaming across into China should the regime collapse.
One also must consider the Japanese. Japan and Korea clearly have a bloody history, dating back to the Japanese imperial army’s occupation of Korea around the time of World War II. Some of Japan’s leaders are advocating for a shift in the country’s foreign policy and constitution, moving away from the current pacifist stance and into a greater defensive carriage. Some even call for Japan to develop its own nukes.
It is clear that North Korea continues to threaten Asian stability with its unrelenting threats and testing. A country in a persistent posture of war is difficult to deal with, but a nation obsessed with self-image in a perpetual hostile stance might prove impossible to reason with entirely. There are few options on the table with North Korea, with a would-be “stockpile” of nuclear weapons suspected to be tucked away at Yongbyon.
Some suggest that a “wait and see” position is all that can be really proposed from the rest of the world. Knowing anything material about the North Korean nuclear program is easier said than done, with the preponderance of information gained from propaganda and “official media” sources. Many analysts have suggested that the regime lacks necessary technology, like miniaturizing and hardening for nuclear warheads.
Others, like the United States, are moving forward with a more insistent stance. America recently renewed threats to “stop and search” North Korean freighters in an effort to intercept weaponry that some believe could be headed to the Middle East. North Korea maintains that such action would constitute an act of war.
Should the United States continue on its course of action, it cannot act alone. The Obama Administration is up to its elbows in conflict already and cannot afford engagement, especially with North Korea. A military intervention in the region would be most costly and America cannot attempt any sort of ground engagement. Further aggressive action in the region would also put more pressure on the South Koreans.
Article comments
1 - Ruvy
Nice job, Jordan. Nice to see something other than jíbaras on America's supreme court as a political topic being discussed.
You did a good job of explaining much of North Korea's political culture.
At the moment, it appears that the best possible customer for North Korean technology is some Arab country bent on destroying us in Israel. The only question is whether the Arab country(ies) in question can pony up enough money to pay the North Koreans sufficiently.
One of the very few westerners who spent extensive time in North Korea, Prof. Stephen Fox, suggested that Israel try to find some way to engage the North Koreans.
But I have not seen hide nor hair of Prof. Fox in two years or so.