Is McCain's unorthodox campaign running under the radar of the punditocracy and setting us up for an election day shocker?
Watching the Sunday Morning talking heads on Meet the Press and This Week was kind of a surreal experience. For a minute I thought it was next Sunday, because they were all talking about the election in the past tense, with questions like "when was it that John McCain lost this election?" The discussion came down mostly to how much of a landslide the election is going to be for Obama, with no consideration of the possibility of any other outcome.…
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26 - Baritone
And another thing! In the past 2 elections the Democrats had no real ground game. Conversely, that is in part at least where Bush found his victories (other than disenfranchizing hundreds of thousands of voters, pressuring the Supreme Court, etc.) The Dems didn't have a clue.
It may be just the opposite this go round. The McCain campaign has been disjointed from the get go. The Obama machine is organized to the hilt. My being a very small part of that machine, I have at least a modicum of insight as to how thorough they are and have been. They still may lose, but it won't be due to a lack of preparation and execution in all phases of the campaign, including the ground game.
I will say though, that a McCain loss certainly won't be unexpected, and while the Reps would have to spend some time licking their wounds, the fact that they will have to wholly reorganize almost from the ground up is a given.
On the other hand, an Obama loss would truly be devastating to the party. To have flubbed the pass and dropped the ball again, especially in this, perhaps the most favorable climate the Dems have found themselves in since Johnson/Goldwater or even Ford/Carter, would be horrendous. I will have to admit that it would mean the Dems are just on the wrong page, perhaps reading the wrong book entirely. I would not want to have to help pick up the pieces in the event of an Obama loss.
B
27 - Baronius
Dave, one other consideration in support of your argument: the high voter turnout could also be motivated by anger against Congress. The Dems are hated for what they haven't done, the Republicans are erroneously getting blamed for the bailout, and there's still lingering frustration over the immigration bill (and who knows how that could affect the top of the ticket).
That being said, it still looks like McCain would need every break plus Pennsylvania, and I can't see that happening.
28 - Dr Dreadful
Kenny Gs assistant?
We don't see much of him in the Politics section, B-tone, but 'Kenny G's Assistant' is an occasional Blogcritics sprite who indignantly and vehemently attacks any commenter imprudent enough to disparage in any way the musical talents of Mr G.
Having satiated his bloodlust, he is gone as abruptly and mysteriously as he came.
29 - Cindy D
RE # 25
Zedd,
Excellent, excellent, excellent post!
I loved it all, but I particularly loved this part:
If we were really smart, it would be difficult for anyone to come to power.
30 - Cindy D
Dan,
I like the name of the BC electoral map.
"LOL at leftists!"
31 - Independent Voter
The sad fact is that regardless of whose shoes are under the bed in the White House, the country is in the tank with no simple way out. The problems didn't come about last month or last year. It's been building for decades.
There was a prescient book written in 1992 (Bankruptcy 1995) that was right except for the date. And now the problems outlined in 1992 have gotten an order of magnitude worse.
It’s not just that government has been spending more than it takes in... most Americans caught the same virus.
Hang on for a long, long rough ride...
32 - Cindy D
Independent Voter,
Thanks for that book reference! Holy smokes...that lead into a wealth of interesting information.
One of the two authors is University of Arizona economics professor Gerald Swanson, who wrote another book entitled: AMERICA THE BROKE 2004.
Swanson"who makes the challenging subject of economics understandable, interesting, and even enlightening"teaches hundreds of students at a time in the large lecture format, the hardest format in which to affect students, and has been called “a rock professor” due to his strong following. This past spring Swanson’s profound accomplishments were recognized when he was named the Thomas R. Brown Chair in Economic Education with a $1.5 million gift to the Eller College from the Thomas R. Brown Private Foundation. Swanson’s first book Bankruptcy 1995 spent nine months on the New York Times bestseller list.
I have been reading articles, for example one from Time in 1992, "If you want a really good holiday-season scare, be sure to pick up this half-baked Figgie pudding of doomsday scenarios and vague nostrums." the Time's article's author says.
This will be an interesting look from the past into the present. I have ordered both books.
I am also learning more about leveraged buy-outs and there toll on the deficit.
Thanks again!
33 - Cindy D
whoops did I say deficit? I meant the debt load.
34 - Zedd
Dave,
This is one of your sad PR stunts. Hope it works for you. As I recall, you did predicted the internet....
35 - Shark
Dave "Vox Populi" Nalle: "...The McCain campaign is not like other Republican campaigns of recent years. It targets different people and may be using Sarah Palin and Joe the Plumber and strong negative arguments against Obama to more effect than anyone realizes."
Heh.
Brilliant!
Your usual uncanny insight into politics!
xxoo
shark
PS: um, Dave/Vox...
it
was
a
fucking
LANDSLIDE.
PPS: Bush gave birth to a baby named Obama -- and aborted an evil, hypocritical, mentally impaired baby elephant named "GOP". Thanks, George!
36 - Dave Nalle
Shark. I wonder. Do you even bother to vote?
You clearly have little interest in making the world a better place.
Dave
37 - Lisa Solod Warren
Cindy
Wanna read something interesting? Read the interview with young Galbraith in Sunday's NYT. About today's economists and why they did not predict what happened....