Watching the Sunday Morning talking heads on Meet the Press and This Week was kind of a surreal experience. For a minute I thought it was next Sunday, because they were all talking about the election in the past tense, with questions like "when was it that John McCain lost this election?" The discussion came down mostly to how much of a landslide the election is going to be for Obama, with no consideration of the possibility of any other outcome.
Apparently the media has entirely convinced itself that exit polls of early voting can accurately predict the overall outcome of the election, despite the fact that it has been definitively proven that people lie pathologically to exit pollsters, as was demonstrated in 2000 and 2004. In addition, all of the polls are using weighting systems based on hypothetical assumptions about demographics, voter turnout and voter attitudes which have no basis in anything except the partisan wishful thinking of the pollsters and their employers. With McCain running such a wildly unconventional campaign, clearly based on a completely different set of assumptions, the talking heads seem foolishly arrogant in their premature conclusions. It is almost enough to raise the suspicion that they are engaging in psyops-style vote suppression and attempting to convince people not to vote because the outcome is predetermined.
One of the fundamental mistakes the punditocracy and the pollsters seems to be making is the assumption that high voter turnout means that lots more Democrats are voting and that independents are turning out to vote Democrat. This seems to be based on the theory that only Barack Obama can inspire people to vote and that those people can only be voting for him. They seem to be overlooking the reality that Obama is a polarizing figure and his power to turn out voters may very well include the power to turn out a lot of voters who oppose him. This is clearly what the McCain campaign is banking on by painting the Obama's negatives in broad strokes and making sure that those who have concerns about Obama are given plenty to worry about.
Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - Dannielle
This is the type of article the main stream media USED to write.
Absolutely fair and informative. Congratulations and thank you.
2 - Dave Nalle
Thanks, Danielle, but I wouldn't even go that far myself. This article is biased in its own way, if only because I'm being the devil's advocate to balance out the media's leaping to conclusions.
Dave
3 - Glenn Contrarian
How can we count the chickens before they hatch when Diebold hasn't had the chance to modify the totals yet?
4 - RJ Elliott
Good article, Dave.
I will be writing my own predictions about the presidential election result tomorrow. I politely request that you, or another BC editor, publish it ASAP, as it will (obviously) be a highly time-sensitive article.
5 - Dr Dreadful
"The third mistake is the chronic Democratic assumption that voters are stupid and uninformed."
Because of your kinda-disclaimer in comment #2 above, viz. that you're playing devil's advocate, I'm tempted to let this one slide for now.
But I do feel compelled to remind you that this same assumption was one of the central pillars of your argument for reforming the electoral college, which appeared on the site yesterday.
Anyway, we'll know in a couple of days or possibly months Florida behave yourself whether you were right.
And if you're wrong, I'll be interested to hear from Stan, who's been insisting for months that there was no way America was ready to elect a black man, which he's prepared to cough up - London or the brick?
6 - Matthew T. Sussman
Dave, I think this is wishful thinking on your part. Obama is leading McCain in newspaper endorsements by an overwhelming 240-114. Thirty more editorials for Obama's way and he has enough to win the presidency.
7 - Clavos
If only editorials counted for anything more than their author's egos...
8 - El Bicho
"with no consideration of the possibility of any other outcome."
That's because of the campaign itself. They couldn't even be bothered to wait until the election was over before they stated pointing fingers at who was at fault, mainly Palin.
9 - bliffle
Dave seems to have no qualms about revealing himself as biased and elitist:
"The third mistake is the chronic Democratic assumption that voters are stupid and uninformed."
Also, this is dangerous to Dave's ego, since if Obama wins then Dave must concede that dems do NOT think that voters are stupid.
Regardless, IMO opinion Daves analysis goes in the wrong direction and misses the point. I am impressed that so many southerner whites and blue collar whites are determined to vote for Obama to help rid the country of the curse of racism. IMO the post election analysis will show that the REAL white race vote in this election worked in Obamas favor and outweighed both the pro-obama black vote and the anti-obama white vote.
What that will mean is THE END of white racist politics in American life. Good riddance. Only scattered individual racism will remain and it will be without the powerbase racism has had for so long in the political system.
10 - Dave Nalle
Also, this is dangerous to Dave's ego, since if Obama wins then Dave must concede that dems do NOT think that voters are stupid.
Or I could just conclude that the Dems are right and voters ARE stupid.
Regardless, IMO opinion Daves analysis goes in the wrong direction and misses the point. I am impressed that so many southerner whites and blue collar whites are determined to vote for Obama to help rid the country of the curse of racism.
And I think that you're wrong, and that when it comes down to it the big swing factor will be midwestern and mid atlantic working class voters who may coincidentally be white, who vote McCain not because of race issues, but because of a fear of change.
Dave
11 - Dan(Miller)
We must all do our best to save the bull.
Dan(Miller)
12 - zingzing
oh, there are many of us democrats who are still crossing our fingers, not daring to believe a damn thing until wednesday morning.
still, things are looking good right now. of course, i was pretty shocked when bush pulled out the election four years ago. and i would never put it past the republicans to pull of the improbable.
i'm voting tomorrow, although my vote is pretty well wasted in this area. but i'm voting. just because i had better if i expect every other democrat out there to do the same.
still, everyone is taking you to task for that "democrats assume voters are dumb or misinformed" comment...
i think that if you changed that to "democrats assume republican voters are dumb and misinformed," you'd have a pretty strong argument. how anyone could vote republican is beyond me. lalalala.
13 - Lee Richards
Dave, This is just more of the same from you--a completely partisan "analysis" seasoned with the usual diatribe. So predictable.
Now if you'd shared your insights on how McCain specifically is going to get 270 electoral votes, it would be much more interesting and worth considering.
14 - Cindy D
Don't hatchet your counts before they Chicken.
15 - Baritone
I still make no predictions. Dave is correct that it could go either way despite the polls and pundits.
However, I do take issue with his assumption that people fear change - at least in this instance. Ordinarily, I would agree. People often prefer the status quo in that, even if it is bad, it is at least familiar.
But, I believe that Bush & Co. have pushed that envelope beyond the breaking point. To many, change seems far more attractive than standing pat. McCain does NOT represent any real change. Obama does. Obama offers hope. McCain just offers a fight.
B
16 - Baritone
Another point. This is a great post for Dave. If McCain wins, Dave is a genius. If he's wrong, he just shrugs and says, well, it was a long shot.
So, I think that if Dave IS proven wrong, BC should make him listen non-stop to Kenny G recordings until the inauguration.
B
17 - Dr Dreadful
Which inauguration, B-tone? 2009 or 2013? :-)
While theoretically McCain could still pull this off, according to a computer simulation by math professor Brian Adams, it's a virtual statistical impossibility.
Assuming Adams's methodology is sound, if McCain does win then the integrity of the vote most assuredly needs to be scrutinized.
Poor Dave. It must cut like a knife...
18 - Dr Dreadful
And B-tone... you're trying to lure Kenny G's Assistant out of the woodwork, aren't you?
19 - Dave Nalle
BT, any mathematical analysis is only as good as the assumptions behind the polling data on which it is based.
Since my thesis is that the weighting of the polls is seriously flawed, the mathematical analysis becomes equally suspect.
Dave
20 - Baritone
That the polling methodology is flawed is Dave's opinion. We'll see tomorrow if his opinion holds water or is a sieve.
Doc,
2009? 2013? Whichever you prefer. The latter might give us a bit more peace, though. Kenny Gs assistant?
B
21 - bliffle
I predict an Obama landslide. Just because the turnout is huge and people vote AGAINST incumbents in large numbers, but seldom do you get a large affirmation turnout.
IMO people regard Bush as a radical who has wrecked the economy and mired us down in an endless war for no significant national interest, and McCain as a puppet and they want a return to normalcy.
The only questions remaining are the size of the Obama mandate and the dem margin in the senate.
22 - Dave Nalle
Now if you'd shared your insights on how McCain specifically is going to get 270 electoral votes, it would be much more interesting and worth considering.
That article is in 'pending' status right now, Lee.
Dave
23 - Dan(Miller)
Dave,
Where, oh where, the did the electoral vote projections on the BC Politics home page originate? Seem
rightcorrect to me.Dan(Miller)
24 - Dan(Miller)
Re Comment #23,
Ah ha. Now I know. It was here.
Good show.
Dan(Miller)
25 - Zedd
Ditto to Baritone #15
""The third mistake is the chronic Democratic assumption that voters are stupid and uninformed
I have to disagree. The public is stupid and uninformed. Sara Palin mania, Obama is a Muslim and will be taking the oath on the Koran, GW twice, family values, prayer in school, Afghanistan/Iran-same thing- they are all terrorists, Apartheid (constructive engagement), and Jim Crow (separate but equal). Stupid is a long running theme with the public; Hitler, the inquisition, the monarchy (scam of all scams)??? STUPID.
If we were really smart, it would be difficult for anyone to come to power.