With $20 milliion to spend New Hampshire could be the key to the rest of the election for Ron Paul.
A lot of folks are pinning their hopes for a great renewal in American politics on Ron Paul and his 'revolution.' Pollsters and pundits don't give Paul much of a chance when it comes to winning the Republican nomination, despite the unquenchable enthusiasm of his supporters. Their optimism tells them that all the polls and predictions are wrong and that Paul will surprise the world and come from nowhere and win primary after primary and seize the nomination by storm, and then be unbeatable with bipartisan support in the general election. Sure it's mostly pure fantasy, but it's a seductively appealing fantasy.…
Article comments
— go to most recent comments76 - Jacob
Most of those OBL recruited for 9-11 were from Saudi Arabia.
Add that to the dots.
77 - Clavos
Of course they were, jake.
The Wahabbi are Saudis, as is OBL himself.
What does that prove? Certainly not that 9/11 was retaliation for US troops on Saudi soil, who are there at the invitation of the Saud family, the rulers of Saudi Arabia.
So why hasn't OBL recruited Saudis to fly into Saud family palaces? US troops would not be there without their complicity.
OBL is pulling the wool over the eyes of the gringos; and at least in your case, apparently succeeding.
78 - Clavos
Of course they were, Jake.
The Wahabbi are Saudis, as is OBL himself.
What does that prove? Certainly not that 9/11 was retaliation for US troops on Saudi soil, who are there at the invitation of the Saud family, the rulers of Saudi Arabia.
So why hasn't OBL recruited Saudis to fly into Saud family palaces? US troops would not be there without their complicity.
OBL is pulling the wool over the eyes of the gringos; and at least in your case, apparently succeeding.
79 - Jacob
The CIA theory is BLOWBACK was the cause of 911.
The attack on 9/11, was a response to foreign occupation. In his 2005 book Dying to Win, political scientist Robert Pape examined a series of modern suicide campaigns and concluded that they are driven not by religious zeal but by foreign occupations.
In WWII the Kamikaze were driven by fear of foreign occupation as the US got close to their homeland.
80 - troll
Clavos - for your consideration
granted there aren't many palaces bombed
81 - Clavos
troll,
Thanks for the link. I don't see a discernible pattern in the attacks, but it's obvious Al-qaeda is quite active in Saudi, as they are pretty much throughout the ME.
As you point out, no attacks on palaces, and I didn't see any references to attacks on Al-Sauds, whether greater or lesser family members.
There are also far fewer attacks on American installations or citizens than one would expect if Al-Qaeda's primary beef is US presence there.
Overall, the series of incidents, while numerous, appear to be pretty random to me.
82 - Jacob
Clavos --
LOL!
83 - Clavos
Jacob,
The CIA's track record on anything, and especially their "theories," is much less than stellar.
Given the intelligence community's ignominious lack of success in the ME (especially in regards to 9/11), I give the CIA's take on any issue in that region very little credibility.
84 - troll
an awful lot of foreigners on the target list...something of a pattern
85 - Clavos
True, caballero.
But would you logically conclude from that pattern that the attacks are evidence of Al-Qaeda's (and OBL's) resentment of specifically, US troops in Saudi, which was the original point in contention in this part of the thread?
86 - Jacob
“One school of thought holds that Saudi Arabia is incapable of quelling the massive groundswell of anger and hatred towards the West engendered by the US-led invasion of Iraq and the Israel-Palestinian conflict that triggers such attacks.”
-- BBC News, 6 December, 2004
87 - STM
Dear Republicae, I live in a country where five years ago our dollar was down to about 70-80 cents against the US dollar.
Hence the proliferation of locally made Australian and or Japanese/Korean cars on the road - and virtually no American ones since the '60s. Now, American cars are making a return. I spotted about 50 of them on the road this morning on my way to work. Might not seem like a lot, but the US manufacturers are making a marketing charge and sales are increasing.
This is a very prosperous country, however, and the only problem came when our currency was valued lower was when you wanted to buy goods from overseas and only then from countries whose currency was valued higher than ours.
Now that our dollar has risen against the greenback, as has the Euro and the pound sterling etc, the only difference is that there are now more US-produced products on the shelves, for example in the fruit and vegetables sections of supermarkets during the off season.
Currency rates are only really an issue on the international currency exchange markets. In the case of the US, they were set at very artificially high levels.
I don't notice any difference to our prosperity now that our dollar is worth near a US dollar. And as for the euro and the pound sterling, all I know is that most Europeans and Brits get a lot less of them in their pay packets than I do, and all things considered, my standard of living overall is better.
Unless, of course, I want to go on vacation to Europe - that's when I lose. But if I want to go to the US, it's good for me.
And surely, you want more tourists coming to the US and spending their money there instead of somewhere else.
It's a multi-billion dollar industry after all, and that's one of the ways you win with a corrected greenback.
One of America's problems of late is that people haven't been buying its products. A fall in the greenback is one way to remedy that.
88 - Jacob
Clavos says -- "I give the CIA's take on any issue in that region very little credibility."
Clavos has a better source?
89 - STM
Does Jake wear camouflage pants and live up in the hills of Vermont?
90 - STM
Happy New Year BTW Jacob, Clav, Troll, everyone ... it's already 2008 here (almost 2pm Jan 1).
91 - STM
So this is a message from the future ....
92 - STM
I have had to go to work today. Everyone in the office is massively hungover and the everyone's breath stinks of stale piss (grog).
Our hangovers are yours - tomorrow ...
93 - Clavos
"Clavos says -- "I give the CIA's take on any issue in that region very little credibility."
Clavos has a better source?"
No.
Do I have to have a better one in order to disbelieve that one?
Intelligence is not a zero-sum equation.
94 - STM
How some us (not me, I wish) celebrated the New Year
95 - bliffle
I wouldn't drive car on new years eve on a bet. But my foster-daughter would, being a beautiful 30 yr. old, which is why I went downtown and renewed her lapsed cell phone bill saturday so that she can communicate with her no-fault foster-parents if necessary.
96 - Clavos
Hi Stan,
Happy New Year to you, too, mate!
The Missus and I are spending this one quietly at home; actually not so quietly: the neighborhood kids have already started with the fireworks (it's 22:15).
The fireworks actually aren't so bad; we have a much more dangerous custom in this city: at midnight, quite a few people shoot firearms into the air. Nearly every New Years, someone dies (often a child, even one indoors sometimes) from being hit by a falling round.
97 - STM
Thanks Clav. You too buddy, and your missus. Hope 2008 is a better year.
Bliff: been there too ... my 20-year-old son waits 'till he gets two bills and the threat of disconnection, then hands 'em to me to pay by phone banking.
The he gives me in cash a percentage of what I've paid so that he can say later: "Didn't I give you that money for the phone bills?"
The last one, though, he went up to the post office and paid it himself.
Today, however, it being near 2.30pm New Year's day, I can't raise him.
I just called and some sleepy voiced girl answered the phone. When I asked for him, she said: "He's kind of asleep at the moment".
Right, yep, gotcha ...
98 - STM
Clav: amazing that no one thinks about falling rounds when they shoot into the air.
You know, Sir Isaac Newton's law of gravity - what goes up, must come down.
Having lived in Baghdad, I'm familiar with the custom. People were always letting off shots into the air.
Wasn't too bad though, unless it was a tank, which actually did happen at one point. And not just one tank either.
99 - Clavos
The sad thing is Stan, that I don't think it's so much a case of not thinking that the round must come down, so much as it's a "don't give a damn" attitude.
I hope I'm wrong, but...
Tank rounds??? Now that's really hairy!! (And effing STUPID)
BTW, are you finding the site slow to refresh and preview/publish tonight? Or is it my ISP AGAIN?
100 - STM
Yes, struggling here with it. Must be a) the holidays, and b) lots of internet traffic??
101 - STM
Mate, one afternoon after school - 1967 I think - I was standing on the balcony of our place in the Alwiyah district, which was the Christian neighbourhood and right on the opposite bank of the Tigris to the Presidential Palace. The view from a fifth floor apartment was spectacular and I always liked to just stand there and drink in the scene.
Then I heard the roar of jets and half a dozen Mig 17s flashed past and began attacking the palace. I could hear the thump of AA fire, and bombs, rockets and what I presume was cannon fire both from the ground and the aircraft. Then they just flew off.
That night, there were tanks and soldiers in the streets, heaps and heaps of of small-arms fire, rifles, machine guns etc, some of which hit our balcony, and a curfew. Going to school the next day, we had to pass a number of checkpoints where the Iraqi Army had set up these dirty great roadblocks with these huge British Centurion battle tanks at the side of the road, with their barrels pointing directly at oncoming traffic.
Pretty freaky.
My father was pretty nonchalant about it all.
"Just an attempted coup," he said. Attempted being the magic word.
We discovered later that one of the air force generals had made a bid for power against the pro-west leaning government, which had been destabilised earlier by a "mysterious" helicopter crash (his was the only one if a flight of four to crash while returning from Basra) that had killed the president.
The air force general failed. I think he paid the ultimate price too. Not much changes there.
The next year, Saddam Hussein's Baathists seized power.
102 - Clavos
You know, I've seen more than once on these threads that you and Dave and Ruvy often don't agree with each other on a number of issues,, but all three of you have direct, long term experience actually living in the ME.
And, I find one common thread that runs through all of you guys' posts on the ME, (even if you don't always agree on the details) is that you all take the issue of the threat to the West from Muslim radicals very seriously.
That common thread is very striking, especially in light of the experiences and backgrounds of all three of you.
103 - STM
Oh, it's real all right. It's not always muslim extremists either. Before that, it was pan-Arab nationalism (Nasser-style) or Baathism.
That is the common thread. The desire to be fighting all the time over power, influence and wealth. It's post-colonial stuff, really, dating back to the Ottoman empire (which is only 100 years gone, remember). Then it was the British and French, now the Americans and British who are targeted.
I know Ruvy thinks the Saudis are a drama, but I think they've actually been a force for stability.
Except that some of them with more extreme religious views are prone to join causes like that of OBL.
104 - Clavos
Happy New Year; the US east coast finally joined the Land of Oz in 2008.
I just got off the phone with my sister, who lives in Ruvy's old stomping grounds of Minneapolis, and blew my eight year old niece's mind telling her that she was living a year behind me.
Poor kid couldn't deal with the concept and turned the phone back to Mom, who wanted to know what I had done to her child...
I love being an uncle; all the fun and none of the hassle or responsibilty, plus I get to spoil 'em.
Happy New Year to all my virtual friends and sparring partners on BC!
May you all have a safe, healthy, happy and prosperous New Year!
105 - Jacob
Happy year all you bums.
May you all be in heaven an hour before the devil knows you're dead.
106 - STM
There's yer Irish comin' out Jake (that was one of my mum's favourites, or something very similar, and she was from Cork originally). Happy New Year.
107 - Dave Nalle
And, I find one common thread that runs through all of you guys' posts on the ME, (even if you don't always agree on the details) is that you all take the issue of the threat to the West from Muslim radicals very seriously.
I hesitate to speak for anyone but myself, but I have to stress that while radical Islam poses a threat to the west, it is still quite far from the point where it is a direct, military threat or a threat of conquest in any normal sense, much though some might wish that it were.
The main real threats now for the US are from terrorism and other attacks on our economic and other interests overseas. I still rank domestic terrorism as a more serious threat inside the US than islamic terrorism. But in Europe the situation is much different. Their muslim minorities are larger and much less satisfied with their lot in life. They're less well integrated into society and feel more isolated. Muslims here find it easy to move into the middle class and find most Americans pretty accepting. In Europe they're poorer and angrier and feel exploited and left out. I think the problem can be controlled there, but it has the potential to become truly explosive.
Dave
108 - Amapola
Saying Ron Paul isn't showing up in the polls is such a distortion. Ron Paul hasn't even been mentioned (an option) in the polls they site.
He's won all of the text polls on the Fox debates, and you can only vote once because it uses caller ID.
He's one the online polls for just about every major network and then they take the poll down when he wins. If that isn't crooked, I don't know what is.
109 - troll
Clavos - re #85 *But would you logically conclude from that pattern that the attacks are evidence of Al-Qaeda's (and OBL's) resentment of specifically, US troops in Saudi, which was the original point in contention in this part of the thread?*
I think the 'data' suggests a broader resentment than one against US troops only...
the impression I get is that the problem is any occupation by infidels - economic or military
110 - Clavos
"the impression I get is that the problem is any occupation by infidels - economic or military"
At least. The impression I get (from reports of statements by various Muslim radicals) is that the existence of infidels (anywhere, not just in their territories) is problematic for them.
111 - Robert Edward Johnson
Why Ron Paul will win Iowa and New Hampshire, or at least place in the top three in both.
112 - Jacob
“The impression I get (from reports of statements by various Muslim radicals) is that the existence of infidels (anywhere, not just in their territories) is problematic for them.”
-- Clavos
In this context, “problematic” is problematic.
Many religious and nationalistic groups have radicals who resent any presence of foreigners with different religions or skin colors.
It should be obvious that most Muslims see non-Muslims in different ways.
The primary problem they see is the existence of military forces on their land. Economic issues are a different matter.
Economic presence is viewed depending on its economic impact.
The existence of US Marines in Lebanon was resisted primarily for nationalistic reasons.
The existence of hundreds of thousands of US Troops in Saudi Arabia was considered blasphemous. There you had a combination of nationalism and religious fanaticism which led to a violent result on 9-11.
So what did we do?
We withdrew the US troops from Saudi Arabia. (How did this gem of intelligence creep into Bush‘s brain?)
But he also put hundreds of thousands of US troops back into the Middle East by invading Iraq.
That’s like throwing gasoline on a fire.
And Bush now says putting out the fire belongs to the next guy.
113 - Clavos
Bush is a bad president, I agree; and for a lot more reasons than simply the war.
But neither Bush nor any other american president gave the radical Muslims the idea that ALL infidels must either convert or be eliminated, which is part of what I'm talking about.
For that, you have to go back centuries; even before the usa existed.
And ron paul neither acknowledges that, nor does he want to do anything about it.
Which is (partly) why he won't get my vote.
114 - Jacob
“And ron paul neither acknowledges that, nor does he want to do anything about it.”
He’s too smart.
115 - Jacob
“ALL infidels must either convert or be eliminated... For that, you have to go back centuries; even before the usa existed.”
-- Clavos
If you want to go back centuries... go.
But if you do, you will have to re-create the environment which you postulate.
There may be a small number of radicals now, but that is a basic fault of man. The Bell Curve shows that some of us always come close to dropping off the edge.
We have to learn to avoid them. We cannot make everyone see things our way. The best thing we can do is show our way by good example.
Bush-wacking them with 500# bombs doesn’t do it.
116 - Clavos
OK, we'll have to agree to disagree.
117 - Tom
I'm a Dem and I'm considering Paul. I think he appeals to a wide range of people. And contrary to a comment someone made above Paul is a stout believer in the separation of church and state.
118 - Clavos
Stan,
Re my #96 above:
It DID happen again this New Years!
An 11 year old boy living in an apartment lost his life, because his idiot neighbor fired his weapon at midnight.
Almost every year!
119 - Dr Dreadful
That happens here too. As in Miami, there's a large Hispanic population, and the New Year tends to be greeted by some of them with overmuch enthusiasm. If you're outside at or just after 12, sure enough, you'll hear the crack-crack-crack of gunfire in the distance*.
The police, though, are starting to figure out exactly which households are trigger-happy, so they park around the corner and can be found swinging on the offenders' doorbells within moments of the first shots.
* Hopefully.
120 - STM
Clav, that's really bizarre stuff. My daughter was terrified when some idiots in my street let off railway-gang warning detinators, which are really loud.
I thought they had illegal fireworks, but no: they were those things railway gangs put on train tracks, which go off with a loud bang - a very, very loud bang - if a train goes over them, just in case all the other safety systems fail.
They get stolen every year. She thought they were gunshots.
At least I was able to tell her that gunshots aren't that loud, so not to worry and go back to sleep.
I'm sure up in the country though a few rounds get fired off every year. Hopefully, only the odd 'roo gets hit.
121 - Dave Nalle
Saying Ron Paul isn't showing up in the polls is such a distortion. Ron Paul hasn't even been mentioned (an option) in the polls they site.
Actually, now that he's doing over 5% regularly he's showing up in pretty much all the polls. They were never singling him out. If someone has a complaint, talk to Alan Keyes. He's running and they didn't even invite him to the debates, much less put him in the polls.
He's won all of the text polls on the Fox debates, and you can only vote once because it uses caller ID.
I have access to maybe 7 or 8 phone lines. People who work at large businesses can access even more.
He's one the online polls for just about every major network and then they take the poll down when he wins. If that isn't crooked, I don't know what is.
Online polls measure nothing but enthusiasm and are worthless otherwise.
Dave
122 - Dr Dreadful
Alan Keyes is running again?!?
123 - Jim Peterson
In a vacuum I am an avid war hawk and I did vote for Bush in 2004. I crawled over broken glass to vote for him.
But now I understand that we have worse enemies in Congress. John McCain, for instance, wants to regulate the Internet so we are all background checked just to be able to comment anywhere.
Romney and Julie Annie want to regulate men. Julie Annie wants to make it illegal for American men to sleep with foreign women in their countries. Romney say of the Duke fake rape case and men being falsely accused of violence against women "That's tough"...meaning he is in bed with the feminists.
Huckabee's campaign manager is a feminist.
So, despite disagreeing with Ron Paul in his lack of Churchillian views on foreign policy, the takeover of our Congress by worse enemies than Islamofascists puts me in Ron Paul's camp.
Ron Paul says no to all special interests.
124 - Jim Peterson
That said, I don't believe the nonsense that the pollsters are only calling 2004 primary voters. They are mostly calling people at random (on landlines, yes) and asking "Will you vote". That sounds like a reasonable method of polling if the pollsters are honest (and some of them must be if only to preserve their reputations). I am greatly concerned that Ron Paul will get no more than 10% in both early states (and lose to Romney and come in 2nd in Wyoming on the 5th).
This is because Ron Paul is making the mistake of stressing the anti-war part of the platform where the only way to crush McCain in NH is to stress McCain's Internet Regulation penchant.
125 - Clavos
"John McCain, for instance, wants to regulate the Internet so we are all background checked just to be able to comment anywhere.
Romney and Julie Annie want to regulate men. Julie Annie wants to make it illegal for American men to sleep with foreign women in their countries. Romney say of the Duke fake rape case and men being falsely accused of violence against women "That's tough"...meaning he is in bed with the feminists."
Do you have a citation (with links) to a credible website (i.e. their own) for each of those outrageous statements?
Otherwise, I call bullshit.