Just a week after declaring he would form an exploratory committee, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois faces the litmus test of his presidential hopes. Long before the first primary vote is cast in the snowy towns and hamlets of New Hampshire next year, Obama needs to stay competitive in a primary possibly more important than the one for electoral votes: The "media, momentum and money" primary, or in short, "the M3 primary". All three are intertwined, as Senator John Kerry's sudden string of victories in the 2004 Democratic primaries proved.
So, where does Senator Obama stand? It does not seem too bad, but there is work to be done before his juggernaut translates into primary victories. ABC, as part of the positive coverage of Hillary Clinton's entry, published the figures of a national poll in which Hillary Clinton leads Obama 41-17, a 24 percent margin.
So far, so good. However, it is important to mention that (contrary to conventional wisdom), national polls at this stage are, frankly, worthless. Why? Because, in perfectly simple terms, we have state primaries, rather than one national primary. If there is one poll that one can trust, it’s the numbers coming out of Iowa and New Hampshire. In Iowa, he currently places second behind John Edwards, with Hillary Clinton merely fourth behind Iowa's former Governor Tom Vilsack. In New Hampshire, Obama had a lead over Clinton of four percentage points. Hence, the stratospheric national numbers must be taken with a big pinch of salt.
Also, Obama has the ability to capitalize on the electorate being tired of "politics as usual", Republican and Democrat. His best shot at winning the nomination would be to portray himself as the harbinger of real change, an approach that was visible in his announcement that he would form an exploratory committee.
He could also attempt to contrast himself with Hillary, affirming that she has been a good Senator for New York and a valuable force for change, but that a President also needs to be more than a policy wonk. He or she needs to lead with strength and vision. Especially after eight years of a divisive presidency (and no Republican, Democrat or Independent will deny this, unless they are driven by deep ideology, rather than common sense), this message may resonate quite well with voters.
Article comments
1 - Arch Conservative
Fuck Obama!
2 - zingzing
Fuck Archie!
3 - Baronius
Comments 1 & 2 aside, nice article.
4 - Arch Conservative
"he needs to show that he would be a President who could truly be "a uniter, not a divider""
What kind of tired bullshit is that? There will always be people with differing opinions on the issues in this nation and those people will always fight to advance their sides of the issue. Thus there will never be a president from either side of the aisle that unites every American as we all stroll down the yellow brick road together holding hands.
Uniter not divider sounds like liberal bullshit speak to me. If the candidate is a liberal with the MSM's tounge up his ass like Obama he's a uniter but if the candidate is a conservative Republican he is a divider?
Give me a fucking break!
5 - seatoshiningsea
Alright, Arch Conservative, you have made your point â€" and you have spoken sufficiently clearly to clarify your affiliations (yes, I do include your very first comment on my article). Now, let me clarify mine:
Yes, I firmly believe we need a uniter, not a divider in the cherished monument that is our White House. Precisely, Arch Conservative, not a Republican White House, not a Democrat White House, but our White House. After all, aren’t we supposed to be the United States of America? Despite the fact the sheer intellectual paucity of your comments does not really merit any response, I would like to deconstruct each and every one of your assumptions:
„What kind of tired bullshit is that?“ To start with, I am surprised that values conservatives like you (I presume you are for faith, family and country, just like most of us) have to use such disrespectful and impolite language. Ist this not precisely the kind of tired, old negativism most Americans, Republicans and Democrats are tired of? After six years of President Bush, you still haven’t gotten it. We are a country at war. We cannot afford to be partisans, like we used to be during the Clinton era. I, and frankly, most Americans have had enough of the divisive forces in our society, whether their names are Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter, Arianna Huffington or Al Franken. We have had enough of people who are using the citizens of a great country, our United States of America, to sell their books, pit us against one another and decry the opinion of the other side of the aisle as being the devil’s work. I have seen Republicans do it during President Clinton’s term, and I have seen Democrats do it for most of President Bush’s term as well. So, next time before you utter a word of negativism and pessimism against someone who tries to construct a roadmap of where our country could be without such divisive forces, try to think properly. Is this the kind of discourse our Founders would have wanted? Well, not that you really care. The absence of anything even resembling intellectually well-argued discourse just proves the weakness and shallowness of your school of thought, the one that sees America as being divided into red and blue states. Have you even once thought about not scoring political brownie points?
„Thus there will never be a president from either side of the aisle that unites every American as we all stroll down the yellow brick road together holding hands“
Have I ever called for one who unites every American? Clearly, you have not really understood the main thrust of my article. Of course, there need to be differences, that is perfectly part of a functioning democracy. But a President needs to be more than a mere fundraiser for his party, he needs to be a leader, a visionary, someone who can bring people together and achieve the best for America â€" someone who can call on the higher angels within every American citizen. We are a country at war, Arch Conservative…I am surprised you would rather have an establishment party hack, Democrat or Republican, in the White House…the very executive residence inhabited by great statesmen like Washington, Adams, Lincoln, the two Roosevelts, Eisenhower, Kennedy and Reagan. Unlike you I want a republic that finally protects our borders, lowers taxes, secures our values and strengthens our health and education. One that is not beset by ideology, whether it is Democrat or Republican. I want a President who will take the best approaches from both parties and turn them into American solutions.
"Uniter not divider sounds like liberal bullshit speak to me"
Liberal-speak you say. Let me be absolutely clear about my personal positions. I am a Republican, and a libertarian one at that. I believe that the Republic comes first, not my party. Does this make me a worse Republican than you? Maybe. Does this make me a worse American than you are? Certainly not. Next time you write a comment, please do me, all of us on Blogcritics, and frankly every American a favour: engage in intelligent debate that does not insult the name of conservativism and its values. I believe that John McCain and Rudy Giuliani are candidates worthy of the presidency, but so is Barack Obama. You may not believe so, and that remains your legitimate right. But please express your disagreement with politeness, respect and intelligent argument, not abuse and vitriol â€" this is the kind of Limbaugh/Franken politics of the radicals on both sides of the debate most Americans are sick and tired of.
Oh, and by the way, you use the word "liberal" as if it some kind of dirty rag lying on the roadside...you know what? It was liberals who ended slavery and preserved the Union. It was liberals who introduced the Social Security and Medicare facilities that you benefit from. It was liberals who gave women the right to vote. It was two liberals who won the two World Wars, Woodrow Wilson and Franklin Delano Roosevelt. It was liberals who introduced the G.I. Bill that allowed most of our men in uniform to attain greater educational opportunities. It was liberals with their incredibly shallow values who created millions of new jobs by balancing several budgets in a row in the 1990s, and left the country with a strong budget. So next time you call me or any other libertarian Republican a liberal, I will be proud, because being free (look it up, the word "liberal" is derived from the Latin word for "free") is the essence of America's greatness. Don't you ever dare lecture me about my patriotism, or question it.
True conservatives have so much to offer to America, just like liberals...not the likes of Franken and Coulter trying to pretend that they share mainstream American values. Because they just don't...and we are sick and tired of their cultural wars, whether leftist-liberal or rightist-nationalist.
6 - Zedd
"I showed the people of Texas that I'm a uniter, not a divider. I refuse to play the politics of putting people into groups and pitting one group against another."
-George W. Bush 5/6/1999 In interview with David Horowitz
7 - Arch Conservative
I will express myself however I see fit Seatoshingsea.
The fact is that the extremely liberal biased MSM is in love with Obama just because he happens to be liberal and half black. It's been Obama this and Obama that 24-7. Why?
What's so friggin great about Obama? He can give a good speech? Whoopty friggin doo.... so can't millions of other Americans. They're not qualified to be president either.
Obama's a nobody with no proven experience of leadership or management and the MSM and liberal posters on this sight kiss his ass while they wouldn't give the time of day to someone like Mitt Romney whose experience and abilities put Obama's to shame just because he happens to be a conservative Republican.
It is typical liberal bullshit talk too because every time a Democrat liberal candidate is being discussed the liberals say "oh he's so great.. he represents everyone.....he's mainstream AMerica" but if it's a conservative gop candidate the libs say "oh no he's a religious nutjob he's a right wing whacko."
It's bullshit to say that someone who shares your values represents all Americans but someone who disagrees with you doesn't. At least when I support my guy I have the honesty to say that while he doesn't represent the values of every American he does represent me and my values, and that's why I like him. Sure he doesn't represent liberals but I don't care because liberals and their values suck so screw them!
When I use the world liberal I am referring to far left radicals that have hijacked the Democratic party. You know........the abortion loving, sociliastt/communist, politically correct, christian bashing ones.
You're tired of culture wars? So in effect you're saying that you don't care what happens to the American culture?
Let me sum it up for you seatoshingsea.
"Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions."
-Gilbert K. Chesterton
8 - Clavos
It was liberals who ended slavery and preserved the Union.
You do know Lincoln was a Republican, right?
9 - Arch Conservative
Not too mention the fact that Republicans supported the 1964 Civil Rights Act and the 1965 Voting Rights Act in much higher percentages than Democrats and the Democrats actually attempted to filibuster the 1964 civil rights act.
But I hope all you good modern day progressives won't let silly things like the facts stand in the way of you revisionist accounts of history.
10 - Mike O
Clavos,
But Lincoln was a liberal. A liberal Republican.
Arch Conservative,
Conservatives in both parties opposed those two pieces of legislation. You've got to realize that the term liberal is not synonymous with Democrat. I think in American political culture the meaning of the term has become distorted over the years. I see myself as a classical liberal - I believe in small government, the free market, allowing the individual to determine his/her own affairs with as little government interference as possible - in the traditions of Adam Smith, John Locke, Thomas Jefferson, Milton Friedman.
Liberalism is a noble tradition. I think you're confusing it with socialism.
11 - J.J. Hunsecker
Arch knows a lot about revisionism as evidenced by his support of Mitt "My views change depending on the political opportunities in front of me" Romney.
12 - Dave Nalle
When I use the world liberal I am referring to far left radicals that have hijacked the Democratic party. You know........the abortion loving, sociliastt/communist, politically correct, christian bashing ones.
We know Arch, but it's a misuse of the word in virtually every way. Join me in just calling them leftists.
Dave
13 - Christopher Rose
I don't understand why anybody would want, seemingly dismissively, to refer to such a disparate group of people as leftists - particularly when there are people that could just as loosely be called rightists that would also support abortion and/or bash Christians - but hey, far be it from me to try and drag a diverse bunch of people with such dated, quaint and simply missing-the-point-entirely views into the more nuanced modern world we actually live in...
14 - Arch Conservative
JJ.....I dare you to show me just one major politician in the last thirty years who hasn't appeared to flip flop on at least one issue during their career.
15 - Baronius
Arch, what's with the fixation on Romney? As Sea's article points out, there are a lot of hurdles between now and primary season, and there's no guarantee that any of the current possible candidates will make it. It seems like Romney hasn't even asked you to the prom yet, and you've already got your ankles in the air. I'm still waiting to hear the sweet talk. This is a creepy analogy.
16 - Arch Conservative
My "fixation" with Romney is that he is the only halfway decent candidate with any real success and experience to speak of. Hillary's a commie carpetbagger. Obama's a nobody with no real experience or accomplishments. Edwards is an ambulance chasing bafoon. Mccain is a RINO. Guiliani is too liberal.
Why do I get grief for supporting Romney while it's a nonstop lovefest for Obama? Look at all the ridiculous posts touting Obama in the past few weeks. Yet there are none touting Romney even though he has much more experience.
Obama doesn't even belong at the prom. He's strictly JV.
17 - Baronius
(OK, I'm going to embrace the tangent. Bad board manners, but what the heck.)
Arch, Obama is in the dream position of getting buzz about the amount of buzz he's getting. That's got nothing to do with his long-term viability. Is the press overdoing the praise? Probably. But it's closer to their jobs than what they usually do. They're supposed to report on what's going on. "Mormon Has White Mother, White Father" isn't a news story.
Remember this is the crucial 92nd week before the election.
18 - Clavos
Remember this is the crucial 92nd week before the election.
Heh
19 - Mohjho
Be interesting to see if Obamas charismatic juggernaut can keep up with Clinton's money juggernaut. Things are looking kinda grim.
No, Fox news will not apologise. They have no journalistic integrity to uphold.
Don't worry about arch, his caustic attitude is what is all wrong with modern conservative thought. All shit talk, no substance. Once the conservatives got complete power, they threw all their so-called ideals out the window to get rich. Now its back to politics as usual. Thanks arch, what a waste.
20 - Heloise
The liberals in the North, held slaves. The family version, versus the plantation version. Even Jews, who could get more leftist than them, had slaves, lots of slaves. So much for liberals.
Yes, Lincoln was a Republican.
Heloise
21 - JustOneMan
Obama Sucks...he is a phoney who fails to tell people he was raised by his WEALTHY WHITE family..he has nothing in common with the average american - black, white, brown, etc.
MY PREDICTION - he will be swift boated by his own party...the libs cannot afford to have a black man in power..how else will they keep their consituents "pikin cotton" for their fucked up entitlement programs..
OBAMA SUCKS
JustOneMan
22 - Normal straight guy that went to college
Obama can't become President. He sucks. That's it.
People think it's great to have a black candidate but he is not even really black. Man.
The republicans will put up someone gay. That is where America is going to: Choose between gays or blacks. What will be next?
23 - fred
I dunno - I just think of the dude from MAD every time I see him