In most election years the conventional wisdom would be that a Democrat incumbent in ultra-left San Francisco with the high profile of Nancy Pelosi would be virtually unassailable. In the past, Republican challengers for her House seat have been lucky to top 20% in the polls and haven't been able to raise enough money to cover trolley fare.
This year things are different. Her challenger is John Dennis who is a Liberty Republican and former Vice Chairman of the Republican Liberty Caucus of California. While Pelosi supports the nanny state and foreign wars, Dennis is anti-war, in favor of gay marriage and has endorsed Proposition 19 and the legalization of marijuana. In any other part of the country a Republican like Dennis (and there are more of them than you realize) would be avoiding those issues and focusing on jobs and the economy, but Dennis is in the unique position where he can effectively run to the left of Pelosi on social issues and to her right on fiscal issues.
The situation in San Francisco makes me envious of John Dennis. I wish I could be there campaigning for him and voting for him. I've done what I can by appearing on several of his radiothon fundraisers, but I wish that Liberty Republicans everywhere could have the luxury he has to be open about his beliefs and have it be an advantage rather than a gamble.
Dennis has done remarkably well in his campaign. He has drawn in money from all over the country, including support from many mainstream Republican organizations which just want to see Pelosi's feet held to the fire. He has raised over $2 million while Pelosi has raised barely a third as much and is hardly even campaigning, taking victory for granted.
But is her reelection a sure thing? Voters in San Francisco may have lost confidence in Pelosi. It's already a certainty that she will no longer be Speaker of the House, and rumors are circulating that she plans to retire after her next term. Her approval ratings are at record lows and she's avoiding San Francisco and spending her time campaigning for other losing Democrats and ignoring her own constituents. Why should they remain loyal to her when they have a better candidate on the ballot?
Article comments
1 - Alan Kurtz
Dave, I'm unsure how Dennis, in your words, "has made his campaign the model for others all over the nation this year and in 2012."
As you point out, he's running in ultra-left San Francisco as anti-war, pro-gay marriage, and pro-Prop 19 to legalize grass. "In any other part of the country," you write, "a Republican like Dennis would be avoiding those issues … but Dennis is in the unique position where he can effectively run to the left of Pelosi on social issues and to her right on fiscal issues."
How, then, can a candidate in such a unique position also be "the model for others all over the nation this year and in 2012?" Dennis's template would work in few other places.
2 - Dave Nalle
Not necessarily the issues he's running on, but the way he's running, drawing support from outside his district and relentlessly holding his opponent accountable for her actions and being true to his principles. The campaign is well run and achieving an amazing amount because it is being run with courage and that's the example to follow.
Dave
3 - Alan Kurtz
Dave, I know nothing about politics. But is "drawing support from outside his district" really a good thing? I mean, does that go on routinely? It makes me uneasy to think that my congressional representative could be bought and paid for by special interests outside my district. I'd feel much better about someone with local support.
4 - pablo
comment 3
"Dave, I know nothing about politics"
quoted for truth!
5 - Alan Kurtz
But unlike you, pablo, I've got an inquiring mind and am willing to learn.
6 - Alan Kurtz
Why don't you try explaining things instead of insulting me at every turn?
7 - pablo
Alan,
I refer you to the DNC article in that case.
8 - zingzing
"Dennis is in the unique position where he can effectively run to the left of Pelosi on social issues and to her right on fiscal issues."
if that's a republican, i'd vote for him. if republicans can run to the left on social issues, they'd not be so repugnant. fiscally, i might agree with them in a lot of ways, but the social issues are key. i have no idea why fiscal ideas are connected to social ideas, but they seem to be a lot of the time. it's unfortunate.
9 - Arch Conservative
San Fran Nan is just about done whether or not she loses in her own little leftist Shang gri la known as the City by the Bay.
The loss of her speakership is the loss of all her political power for all practical purposes and judging by her poll numbers most Americans will be regaling with rousing choruses of "ding song the wicked with is dead," this time next week.
10 - Marcus
@Alan: The thing is, Dennis isn't getting bought and paid for by special interests.... Also, if you have people outside your district supporting you, odds are, they are donating to you. Which is a good, thing, especially if you want to try to win.
11 - John The Diver
John Dennis is an honorable man trying to do the right thing. Represent all americans in his district not biased by special interests. He is a man driven by convictions and values. Should the victims of Nancy Pelosi wake up from thier stupor and vote for John Dennis we just might have a chance to save America, not just San Francisco.
we all want the right to live free without opresive goverment intervention in our lives. Why are we convinced that if we are in every nation we will be somehow safer? This flawed foriegn policy has done nothing but alienate our great nation. We should be the focal point of fredom yet we have become a police state bulling other nations and killing inocent woemen and children. John Dennis want to stop this madness. Nancy thinks that if we bomb children we will some how be safer. Those that survive will be forever enimeies of the United States ergo this policy is cyclical madness. Give Peace a chance Vote for John Dennis and stop the killing Stop the madeness
12 - Dave Nalle
if that's a republican, i'd vote for him. if republicans can run to the left on social issues, they'd not be so repugnant. fiscally, i might agree with them in a lot of ways, but the social issues are key. i have no idea why fiscal ideas are connected to social ideas, but they seem to be a lot of the time. it's unfortunate.
Mark this day. I agree with Zing 100%. And I look forward to welcoming him to the GOP in 2012 once we have completed the process of reforming the party to be what we agree it should be.
Dave
13 - zingzing
unfortunately, dave, it looks like the gop is sliding further to the right on social issues. and if you are going to "reform the party" within the space of a year, you are going to have use some strongarm tactics. frankly, reforming the gop to my satisfaction on social issues, especially now that the tea party is in the mix, just isn't going to happen for a long, long time.
also, i count health care reform as a social issue, even if it is also a fiscal issue. social trumps fiscal every time.
14 - Joseph Cotto
I have been following John Dennis's campaign since he won his primary over Dana Walsh back in June. It seems as if he is poised to have the best showing for a Republican in California's eighth congressional district since about 1950, according to a poll that I read a while back. If his support has solidified since then, which it must have since Matt Gonzalez and Cindy Sheehan both endorsed him, then he may shock everyone by coming relatively close to Pelosi. I do not believe that he will be able to beat her, but I am willing to go out on a limb and say that, in an election cycle such as this, nothing is outside of the realm of possibility. I agree with Dave's opinion that Dennis is paving the way for a new wave of socially moderate-to-liberal and fiscally conservative GOP candidates running in urban environments. In time, they could become an effective counterbalance to the "forget the separation of church and state" crowd which we currently have running the show in virtually all rural and a few suburban areas.
15 - handyguy
To Dave's dreamy claims of a 'reformed' GOP coming as soon as 2012, I have only two words to say:
Jim DeMint
16 - Joseph Cotto
In reference to handyguy's comment, Jim DeMint is a particularly revolting throwback to the Dixiecratic era who somehow managed to slither his way into the South Carolina GOP along with the rest of the pickup truck parade in Greenville after they felt that their longstanding political home, the Democratic Party, veered too far to the left on social issues.
He and his ilk are most certainly not the future of the Republican Party due to the fact that they could, when all is said and done, care less about it. DeMint has publicly admitted this by stating that he hopes to see the Democrats hold their Senate majority in order to attain ideological purity for the GOP caucus, as well as with his support for fringe candidates such as Christine O'Donnell in Delaware who has absolutely no chance of winning against dangerous, far left lunatics like her opponent, avowed Marxist Chris Coons. DeMint and his fellow travelers simply see the GOP as a vehicle for their own power. As political nomads by nature, they will not hesitate to discard the GOP as one would a used napkin if and when a Tea Political Party is formed.
I, for one, would have absolutely no qualms about this.
17 - handyguy
DeMint is beloved and respected by many Tea Partiers, including Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Sharron Angle and Christine O'Donnell.
The connecting thread is fundamentalist Christianity as part of their politics, with accompanying social conservatism. DeMint proudly repeated recently his belief that gays and single mothers should not be allowed to be schoolteachers. I'd be surprised if probable new senators Paul and Rubio disagree.
This strong vein of social conservatism, particularly concerning gay rights and abortion, is the most disturbing part of the tea party movement, which has never been as purely libertarian as Nalle would like to portray it.
[The other disturbing part is the hyperbolic negative rhetoric about socialism, fascism, destruction of liberty, etc. You should be able to win an argument by your positions on the issues; you shouldn't have to ignore facts and portray your opponents with lying caricatures.]
18 - Arch Conservative
wtf......
I'll start I guess.........
"Ding Dong! The Witch is dead. Which old Witch? The Wicked Witch!
Ding Dong! The Wicked Witch is dead.
Wake up - you sleepy head, rub your eyes, get out of bed.
Wake up, the Wicked Witch is dead"
19 - handyguy
You speak Munchkin very convincingly, Arch.
20 - handyguy
The numbers in this race ended up Pelosi 80%, Dennis 15%, not that it matters. She may resign anyway. Then perhaps he can run again.
And now Sharron Angle can start planning her campaign against John Ensign, should he be dumb enough to run for re-election.