After my brilliantly successful (in attracting comments, if not accuracy) predictions on the Iowa primary, I'm ready to follow on with my prognostications about New Hampshire. For Iowa I did fairly well with the Republicans and totally missed the boat on the Democrats - too much confidence in Hillary did me in.
For New Hampshire the situation is sort of flipped. The Democrat situation looks pretty stable, but the Republican polling isn't convincing and is taunting me into making wild conjectures. That said, working from the latest polls and adding my personal insights, here are my predictions:
The Democrats
Barack Obama - 39%
Hillary Clinton - 26%
John Edwards - 16%
Bill Richardson - 10%
Obama is still bouncing from Iowa, and New Hampshire was a pretty receptive state to start with. It's a great place for preaching the message of change, and the heartland of white liberal guilt, which works in his favor. I think he'll lose a point or two from his current strong lead, but Clinton isn't exactly surging either.
I'm still not convinced that anyone in their right mind would vote for Edwards, looking uncomfortable in his catalog-bought common man clothes and mouthing populist platitudes. I dock him points for pure smarminess. But why the hell is Bill Richardson averaging under 6% in the polls? He's clearly the best qualified candidate and he ought to be doing better. He even performed well in Sunday's debate. It's totally subjective, but I think Richardson will do a bit better than predicted. Not enough to make a difference, but he's really running for Secretary of State or Vice President anyway.
The Republicans
John McCain - 35%
Mitt Romney - 24%
Ron Paul - 16%
Fred Thompson - 10%
Mike Huckabee - 9%
McCain showed strong in the Sunday debate. I'm still skeptical about his high poll numbers in New Hampshire, but his honesty seems to have an appeal there and he's got some momentum, so I believe the polls that show him with a strong lead. Accusations of push-polling have been raised against McCain today and we'll see if that backfires and damages his prospects.
Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - Dave Nalle
It occured to me a bit too late, but now that I think of it, registering as a candidate in the New Hampshire primary might be a damned cheap way of advertising my personal blog. Have to keep that in mind for 2012.
Dave
2 - Debrar
Hope you're wrong. I'm for Mitt Romney 2008 whom I find to be a great and effective leader, one who is very impressive, intelligent, and a man known for his morals and integrity.
3 - Dave Nalle
And damned good looking with even better hair than John Edwards.
What part of his morals and integrity is represented by his diametrically opposite changes of position on immigration, abortion, gay marriage and other issues? Is it integrity to have no core beliefs and just say whatever will get you elected?
BTW, I like the old liberal Romney better.
Dave
4 - Clavos
You mention Wyoming being penalized by the RNC by canceling 50% of their delegates for having moved their caucus earlier.
The same thing will happen here in Florida, and for the same reason, but the DNC went even further than the Reps here, and canceled (disqualified?) ALL of the Democratic delegates, thus effectively disenfranchising their own voters' primary votes.
5 - Clavos
You mention Wyoming being penalized by the RNC by canceling 50% of their delegates for having moved their caucus earlier.
The same thing will happen here in Florida, and for the same reason, but the DNC went even further than the Reps here, and canceled (disqualified?) ALL of the Democratic delegates, thus effectively disenfranchising their own voters' primary votes.
6 - Dave Nalle
Wow, that seems extreme, and with Florida being such a populous state that could have some real repercussions. Are they still hiolding the primary anyway? That will notify the candidates who ought to be raising a stink about it.
Dave
7 - Clavos
You mention Wyoming being penalized by the RNC by canceling 50% of their delegates for having moved their caucus earlier.
The same thing will happen here in Florida, and for the same reason, but the DNC went even further than the Reps here, and canceled (disqualified?) ALL of the Democratic delegates, thus effectively disenfranchising their own voters' primary votes.
8 - Michael J. West
GOP is canceling 50% of Florida's delegate? And Giuliani has put all his eggs in Florida's basket? That was a risky move anyway; now, it's simply incomprehensible.
9 - handyguy
All the Dem candidates pledged not to campaign in Florida under pressure from the DNC. The GOP-controlled Florida legislature pushed through the earlier date knowing there would be consequences.
And Romney was the only GOPer to campaign/advertise in Wyoming, which may explain the results.
I believe Dave is underestimating Huckabee and Giuliani in the NH primary. Of course, those votes will have to come from somewhere.
10 - Michael J. West
I'm still not convinced that anyone in their right mind would vote for Edwards
I expect him to win the South Carolina Democratic primary, actually. S.C. won't vote for Hillary, and they'll probably try secession again if Obama is elected.
11 - Clavos
Yep. And the Dems canceled 100%.
Check it out here.
12 - handyguy
Michael, SC is where Oprah held her best-attended mega-rally for Obama. At least half the voters in the Democratic primary there will be African-American. And as a Democrat who grew up in the South, I am pretty sure there are more white liberals in SC who will vote for Obama than you may imagine. The general election is a different matter.
13 - Michael J. West
I'm a Democrat who grew up in the south too, Handy. And while I'm sure there are more white liberals in SC than I would initially guess (considering that I would initially guess 20), I still expect Edwards to win the primary. But perhaps I'm wrong.
That said, I'm still betting on secession threats during the general election.
14 - Adam Evans
It's over a year before it starts....President Obama....vice president Edwards. Don't have to be a political junkie to figure it out!
15 - Clavos
"The GOP-controlled Florida legislature pushed through the earlier date knowing there would be consequences."
While it's true that the Florida legislature was controlled at the time by the Republicans, it's also true that the Florida Democrats voted unanimously for the change.
Here's what my Congressional Representative, Debbie Wasserman Schultz had to say:
Whether to seat Florida’s delegates at the convention would ultimately be up to the presumptive nominee, said Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz, a Democrat from Broward County. Rather than risk the wrath of Florida voters, Ms. Wasserman Schultz said, the party nominee will undoubtedly seat the delegates.
16 - RJ Elliott
Hillary Clinton breaks down!
In my opinion, these were calculated crocodile tears. She's trying desperately to appear "human" and score some sympathy votes from naive female New Hampshire voters.
But it may just work. And all that polling might be out the window... :-/
17 - Clavos
"I still expect Edwards to win the primary. But perhaps I'm wrong."
Don't forget he wasn't able to ensure Kerry carrying SC in '04...
18 - RJ Elliott
"It occurred to me a bit too late, but now that I think of it, registering as a candidate in the New Hampshire primary might be a damned cheap way of advertising my personal blog."
A grand is a "cheap" way to advertise a blog? Hell, just pay me a thousand dollars and I'll spam your link all over the interwebs. ;-)
19 - handyguy
It's impossible to prove whether RJ's interpretation is correct, although it is certainly predictable.
If it's a stunt, it's a risky one, and one she can only pull once. Remember what happened when Ed Muskie cried in New Hampshire. And a female candidate, vide Pat Schroeder, faces even more damage from public tears.
Much as you may resist believing it, she actually is human. All the candidates are under pressure, running on adrenaline with little sleep. So cut her a little slack, and resist, for once, your dittohead tendencies.
20 - RJ Elliott
"I expect him to win the South Carolina Democratic primary, actually. S.C. won't vote for Hillary, and they'll probably try secession again if Obama is elected."
Probably half of the registered Democrats in South Carolina are black themselves...
21 - RJ Elliott
"While it's true that the Florida legislature was controlled at the time by the Republicans, it's also true that the Florida Democrats voted unanimously for the change."
Yup. And Karen Thurman, head of the Florida Democrat Party, decided against an alternative method of choosing convention delegates that wouldn't have run afoul of DNC rules. So, the blame for this deserves to be spread around.
22 - RJ Elliott
"So cut her a little slack"
No.
There are only two possibilities here.
1 - she was fake crying in a desperate attempt to garner the sympathy vote from mushy-hearted morons one day before the crucial New Hampshire Primary. If that's the case, it's disgusting, dishonest, and manipulative.
2 - she was legitimately crying because she's losing. She wants power sooo bad, that when it looks like she isn't going to get it, she breaks down like a little girl who had her dolls taken away, pushing back the feminist movement about 50 years in the process. And also proving she is incapable of being President and Commander-In-Chief during a time of war.
Either way, this should be the end of her campaign. But really, it entirely depends on how the MSM spins it for the spoon-fed yokels out there.
23 - RJ Elliott
*RJ'S NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY PICKS*
Democrats:
Barack Hussein Obama - 41%
Hillary Rodham Clinton - 26%
John Edwards - 23%
Bill Richardson - 5%
Dennis Kucinich - 3%
Assorted Communist Moonbats - 2%
Republicans:
Mitt Romney - 33%
John McCain - 32%
Ron Paul - 11%
Mike Huckabee - 9%
Rudy Giuliani - 8%
Fred Thompson - 3%
Duncan Hunter - 2%
Assorted Fascist Kooks - 2%
24 - RJ Elliott
"His [Romney's] big score in the debate was on immigration, but it's an issue which polls show ranks lowest in importance among major issues with voters."
Evidence suggests otherwise.
Two months ago, Rasmussen surveyed 628 Likely GOP Primary Voters, and here are the results:
4* If a police officer pulls someone over for a traffic violation, should the officer automatically check to see if that person is in the country legally?
80% Yes
12% No
9% Not sure
5* If an officer finds that a person pulled over for a traffic violation is an illegal alien, should that person be deported?
73% Yes
9% No
18% Not sure
6* If police officers are required to check the immigration status of every person they pull over, does that create the temptation to discriminate against people based on their name, their accent and the color of their skin?
20% Yes
67% No
13% Not sure
7* Should undocumented immigrants be allowed to get a driver’s license in New Hampshire?
5% Yes
92% No
3% Not sure
25 - handyguy
There are only two possibilities here.
All too typical of your ideological "reasoning."
As is your snarky choice to use Sen. Obama's middle name in a context where it serves only your partisan purpose and alleged fratboy yuks.
This brings out the worst in you. Too bad.