Pew chief Andrew Kohut said the "’negative impact of Iraq is hurting not only Bush but also the Republican Party as well.’ No longer, Kohut said, is ‘terrorism alone enough to keep’” traditional Republicans in the party’s fold.
Bush Approval Dropping
Six polls taken within the last week have the president’s approval rating from 33% to 38%. Even after the London terrorist raid, CBS had Bush at 36%, Stale Gallup at 37%, and Zogby at 34%.
Dr. Charles Franklin, political science professor at the University of Wisconsin, said in an interview, “We know from the past that presidential approval does predict mid-term election outcomes,” although he’s not ready to predict a Democratic takeover of the House or Senate.
Part of the challenge for Bush is that Americans are less confident that we’re winning the war on terror. According to the Rasmussen Reports, only 39% of Americans are optimistic, a five-point drop in one month. In 2004, half the electorate thought we were winning. Conversely, those who think the terrorists are winning has jumped seven points in one month from 26 to 33%.
“Collectively, these numbers document one of the most pessimistic evaluations of the conflict we’ve found in the past two-and-a-half years,” Rassmussen writes
To make matters worse for the president, he is being assailed from all sides. Conservatives think he’s not conservative enough, and Pew has found that even moderate and liberal Republicans don’t approve of the job he’s doing.
Franklin, on his blog, Political Arithmetik, has noted that when a presidents rating falls into the 30% range, it’s usually “disastrous” for his party at the polls.
Republicans Doing the Old Two-Step with the President
Many Republicans are torn between the president’s ability to raise money for them and fear of being tainted by Bush’s low appeal. Jim Gerlach (R. PA) has said that the people in his suburban Philadelphia district are in a “sour mood.” The two-term Congressman is anxious to show his independence from the president to the point that his statement, "'When I think he's wrong, I let him know'" has become “a virtual campaign slogan, repeated in interviews and TV ads.”
According to the Post, Bush’s sinking approval is creating problems for Republicans across the country, but it’s most serious in the Northeast, where a Post-ABC News poll found Bush’s approval rating at 28% in that region with the Republican Congress in about the same straights. What’s giving Republicans concern is that the region is becoming more Democratic, which could make it hard for the GOP to recover seats lost in November. New York Republican State Senator Raymond Meier, running for an open seat, Reps. Rob Simmons (R-CT), Michael Fitzpatrick (R-PA), Curt Weldon (R-PA), Nancy Johnson (R-CT), and Christopher Shays (R-CT) are all in the fights of their political lives.
Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - gonzo marx
nice analysis Mark!
thanks fer giving us the numbers and sources to look over for ourselves, a MUCH better approach than the usual cherry picking that gets done when reporting this kind of thing
it's still WAY too early to tell anything, but we have passed the first two big hurdles... the Memorial day/4th of July weekends...
those showed increasing losses in the numbers for the GOP
the last big one will be what folks are talking about when they gather on Labor Day
if these trends continue, or even just flatten out, then it looks like the House will shift and it will be way close in the Senate
imo, as long as the Dems win either House or Senate then the Republic is well served by the restoration of checks and balances
and factors indicate more and more Americans are thinking the same thing
we can only Hope
Excelsior?
2 - Mark Schannon
Thank you, Sir Gonzo. There's so much stuff out there, it's amazing. This really is going to be a fascinating election. I do think the Dems can pull off the House if they get organized at the local level. The senate's harder but that would be amazing.
In Jameson Veritas
3 - Dave Nalle
Even the most generous analysts show the dems gaining a maximum of 12 house seats, so I don't see how you think they can get control of the house. The senate is actually closer to being possible, especially if Lieberman gets elected and chooses to caucus with the dems.
Dave
4 - Dave Nalle
Even the most generous analysts show the dems gaining a maximum of 12 house seats, so I don't see how you think they can get control of the house. The senate is actually closer to being possible, especially if Lieberman gets elected and chooses to caucus with the dems.
Dave
5 - G. Chell
"Even the most generous analysts show the dems gaining a maximum of 12 house seats, so I don't see how you think they can get control of the house."
Oh?
6 - Mark Schannon
Dave, no one I've taked to is willing to limit the Dems to 12 seats. I'll be talking to a pollster next week who is predicting that the Dems could take as many as 25 seats...which blew my mind. But he's a good friend of Franklin from U of W. I don't know where you're getting 12, though. Things are still to fluid.
In Jameson Veritas
7 - Dave Nalle
Odd, all of the polls listed on pollingreport.com come out way lower than that. I was wrong about the 12 figure, though. Two polls earlier this month (FOX and Ipsos) led to conclusions as high as 18, which are the highest numbers for the Dems in the past year.
Dave
8 - Dave Nalle
Chell, I think you may have misread the Cook report. It clearly shows a total of 12 toss-up seats and 25 leaning seats. Even if all of the toss-ups went Democrat and the GOP lost a third of the seats currently 'leaning' their way we'd be talking about only a 17 seat switch, and that's being very generous to the Dems. If just the toss-ups went all Dem they wouldn't win the house. If the toss-ups and the leaners all split evenly they wouldn't win the house. Though they would gain seats in both scenarios.
Dave
9 - gonzo marx
ummm.. one third of 25 is about 8
8 plus 12 equals 20 not 17
15 are needed
just helping Dave with his math
Excelsior?
10 - G. Chell
I did not misread cook. Read his analysis.
11 - Dave Nalle
Gonzo, it's 8 plus 10, not 8 plus 12, but I was off by one.
As for the Cook analysis, I can't access it because their membership system appears to be incompatible with Safari.
Dave
12 - gonzo marx
ummm..Dave sez...
*Even if all of the toss-ups went Democrat and the GOP lost a third of the seats currently 'leaning' their way we'd be talking about only a 17 seat switch,*
all toss up seats means 12, by your own words...
one third of 25 is 8 and a fraction...
so....20, for your hypothetical when you say...
*Even if all of the toss-ups went Democrat and the GOP lost a third of the seats currently 'leaning' their way we'd be talking about only a 17 seat switch,*
it ain't rocket science... hell, it ain't even 3rd grade Iowa test word problem...
just trying ta help
Excelsior?
13 - Dave Nalle
Yes, Gonzo, but some of the toss-up seats are already Democrats, so they don't add anything.
Dave
14 - gonzo marx
hey.. i didn't say shit about the accuracy of the analysis or the word problem itself
i was just doing the math
glad ta help...
heh
Excelsior?
15 - pleasexcusetheinterruption12
Great info Mark.
Well after looking at these numbers it looks pretty close to me, but I have to wonder if the current trend against Bush and towards the dems is going to continue. Bush has had some decent press in recent months amid the near constant stream of bad news from Iraq, and it doesnt seem to do much for his approval rating.
Looking to the future it seems to me there are plenty of ways for more things to go wrong for Bush and the GOP, but not many opportunities for success. I just have this sense that this trend is going to continue until something big happens to relieve the pressure off of Bush (either a dem takeover, major dem messup, or Bush impeachment come to mind).
16 - Mark Schannon
Thanks PETI. Things are "trending" away from the GOP, but CQ Politicis & Franklin at Wisconsin say if the election were held today, the GOP would win both houses. But given how volitile everything is and how crazy people are (I hate George Allen, but that comment could cost him the race here in VA! and that's truly absurd) I don't think anyone has any idea.
I'll be talking to that pollster who claims a 25 seat Dem win next week, but I don't know if he's going to let me publish it yet, since he's writing up his findings, but Franklin says he's one of the best. So who knows? The Shadow.
In Decaf Veritas
17 - Bliffle
What a turnaround! A couple years ago the GOP looked unbeatable, but now they lose ground every day. And they did it to themselves, since the democrats have done nothing to endear themselves to voters.
18 - David Ferrell
Keith Mitchell in the 163rd has NO POLITICAL EXPERIENCE. He is the LEADING DRUG DEALER around though, BOTH LEGAL and ILLEGAL!!!!
19 - Mark Schannon
Bliffle,
Yeah, it's ironic. If the Dems win anything, we'll have to thank the GOP! LOL
In Jameson Veritas
20 - Nancy
The Old Fart who's always voted GOP & I are in the same spot: both of us depise our current party leaders but can't stomach voting for the other fella. What to do, what to do...?
21 - Dave Nalle
Nancy, do what every sensible voter should do and vote for the candidates, not the party. If you do that and keep doing it and if everyone else does it too, eventually the parties will come to match your expectations.
Dave
22 - Mark Schannon
Nancy, who's the Old Fart?
Dave, with all due respect, (Bronx cheer)...vote for what candiates? I'd vote for a Lithuanian if I thought he or she had the brains of the scarecrow.
It's not a party matter...it's that the system is designed to keep good people from running for office.
In Decaf Veritas
23 - Dave Nalle
Despite the admittedly fucked up system, there ARE good candidates out there. You may not have the opportunity to vote for them in your particular district, but some of us will be offered a few good choices in the 2006 and 2008 elections.
I'd have no problem voting for a Barney Frank or a Arlen Specter or a Rudy Giuliani if given the opportunity, and they're just the tip of the iceberg. Plus, even picking the lesser of two evils is better than nothing.
Dave
24 - gonzo marx
just what i've always said...
there may or may not be someone around to vote FOR...
but there's ALWAYS someone to vote AGAINST!
just a Thought...
Excelsior?
25 - Dave Nalle
Oh for an election when we have Stephen Douglas and Abe Lincoln to pick from or John Adams and Thomas Jefferson. Hell, I'd even settle for John Quincy Adams and Andrew Jackson. But try to find choices that good in the 20th century.
Dave