President Bush's popularity, after a brief improvement, has again dropped below the magic 40% number, according to the four most recent polls taken in July. In an earlier BC story, Charles Franklin, Professor of Political Science at the University of Wisconsin and author of the blog Political Arithmetik noted that when a president’s approval rating falls below 40%, mid-term election results for his party are in the “disastrous” range. Above 40%, the likely fallout is simply “bad.”
At the same time, Greg Giroux in today's Congressional Quarterly Politics (CQ) said that while the Democrats are still far from nailing down the 15 seats they need to take over the House, "Democrats dominate the list of the best-financed challengers" to Republican incumbents.
The four polls on Bush's rating are AP/Ipsos, which has approval at 36%, the same as the recent Fox News poll. Time has the president at 35% while Gallup still shows the president at 40%. Ben Barnes, Democratic analyst and lobbyist and author of the recent book, Barn Burning, Barn Building, in a recent interview, said, "If Bush's rating go below 40%, barring some catastrophic event, the Democrats will take back the house and possibly the Senate because the Republicans aren't going to run a Karl Rove-type campaign of scaring people. People just won't believe it."
Barnes added that if Bush's ratings go above 40%, "they're going to be able to wrap themselves in the flag and do a red, white, and blue campaign — in other words, "you're more secure with Republicans.'"
Franklin is careful to emphasize that it's too early to determine "whether the upturn in approval that began May 12th has now flattened or even turned down." That takes more poll data than is currently available.
One example of Democratic House fundraising success is CQ's report that in Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional district, "Superb fundraising gives [Democrat Joe] Sestak a shot against [10 term-Republican Curt] Weldon." Sestak's surprisingly strong fundraising and other factors have resulted in CQ changing its rating from "Republican Favored" to "Leans Republican," and, as Ben Benenson, editor of CQ Politics has explained, "Leans Republican" means the Republican is a fight for survival.The fundraising numbers suggest more problems for a beleaguered Republican party. According to CQ, "The eight House challengers with the most cash on hand as July began are all Democrats, and they had an average of $1.3 million banked. There are 34 House challengers who had at least $400,000 cash on hand, and the partisan breakdown is 26 Democratic and eight Republican."
Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - Miguel
The Republicans will hold the House and the Senate after this year's elections. The Democrats are too far out to appeal to the center and have no real proposals for solutions to any of the nation's problems.
2 - mschannon
I'm not ready to make any predictions--nor are any of the political commentators or pollsters I talk with. It is likely that the GOP will keep the House but with a smaller margin.
3 - Sherman Sisco
The nation maybe finally beginging to understand that President Bush's economic and foreign policies are "disastrous" for this country. Look at the gas prices, look at the stock market, look at the body count! Look at how our international reputation has sunk. Also, what other world leader would be so crass as to attempt to give a female world leader a neck massage? Come on less have some class!
4 - dibdib
Very strange!Where did that 40% come from?
5 - Jason
Democrats are "too far out to appeal to the center!" What exactly is the center? Is it the massive supermarket chains, the insurance companies, big oil, the military industrial complex, or simply the rich? If so, then yes the democrats do not appeal to the center. As far as the answer to our country's problems: Republicans have had control for six years and we still have no answer. Even if democrats cannot come up with the answer, we still need a change of guidance in this nation.
6 - Christine
The Democratic party is the party of the working people. It is not the party of the uber-rich and corporate giants. I find it interesting that loyal party Repubs are able to take all the bad news over the past 5.5 years of the Bush Administration and think it's going to improve if we keep going down the same roads. I also find it interesting that they throw out these talking points that Dems have no plan although they never say why they say that. Please visit here! democrats.org
7 - Todd
"The Democrats are too far out to appeal to the center and have no real proposals for solutions to any of the nation's problems." Hmm, fascinating. I guess the majority of Americans or too far out of center to approve of Bush's attempt to run a country.
8 - charlo2
With a dropping 40% approval rate, the Democrats may be getting a little closer to that appeal dont you think? The Republicans cant play Pied Piper to the citizens forever. The public no longer accepts blindly what they are being presented.
9 - Triniman
President Bush's popularity, after a brief improvement, has again dropped below the magic 40% number, according to the four most recent polls taken in August.
August? And the article was only written in July! Carnac the Magnificent would be proud.
Clay Shaw of FL
Ever see the movie JFK?
10 - Pug
The Republicans will hold the House and the Senate after this year's elections. The Democrats are too far out to appeal to the center ...
The former Navy vice-admiral running against Curt Weldon must be a real screwball.
11 - Snobalz
"The Democrats are too far out to appeal to the center and have no real proposals for solutions to any of the nation's problems." Actually, the Dems have a very viable plan to halt the nation's problems. Vote out the Republicans & represent the majority of Americans. Simple.
12 - Snobalz
I for got to mention that I am Republican - for now.
13 - Garcon Dantoine
The Republicans will lose seats, but not as many as the democrats will want.
Bush is a klutz and not fixing things, but creating different problems.
Bush's change on Medicare is a disgrace too. It was better before, than now. Nobody enjoys the donut hole reimbursement system.
Imminent threat in the middle east and south east asia? Yes.. but Bush's tough talk is going to crap(the Axis of evil speech) as we, as a country, are bankrupt from the war in Iraq..(against a threat that supposed to be for WMD's.) Saddam is a WMD but Iran, Hezbollah? They were more of a problem to begin with! Also Al Qaeda.
Let's all think about Lebanon for a minute here. Yes.. Hezbollah is a threat... but they are instilled in Lebanon's government and many non-Hezbollah people are actually dying.
Do you think people of Lebanon will suddenly support Israel?
Fighting Hezbollah in Lebanon is like fighting the "green party" in the U.S. The green party isn't a terrorist group.. but they are a small political group comparable to the size of Hezbollah.
If the "green party" were bombed.. and democrats and republicans were killed.. don't you think all parties(though most people here don't support the "green party" and most people there don't support "Hezbollah")... all parties would unite?!?? If their own party affiliations are killed?
A seize fire is necessary.. conditions must be given. If it can't be agreed upon.. let the bombs start.
The U.N. was created for peace.. not war. Peace first, then war. Our country and Israel? Proactiveness to end a way not agreed upon.
Yes, we all have the due process of the law in the U.S... but if you live outside of the U.S... the U.S's stance, under Republican rule, there is no due process. Why do you think the judicial system stopped Bush from trying Al Qaeda operatives through a military tribunal?!?
To opt out of adhering to the Geneva Convention is absurd.
Democrats
Democrats have solutions but not one unified solution. I'm tired of hearing Republicans say there are no solutions from Democrats. Republicans have one solution.. Proactive action to prevent terrorism. However, there is fault to that ideology as there is rush to judgement and no thinking or planning beyond handing over our children an extreme debt and depleting our retirement compensations. Good luck people, I feel the most sorry for our elderly and future elders and victims of hurricane Katrina.
How much did the U.S. Government spend on Hurricane Katrina? $10, $15, $25 billion? Wow.. the war in Iraq is 10 to 20X's that!!!! Now there is something very wrong with this administration if they are willing to spend money on bombs and war, rather than protect it's own people at home.
(3000 people died on September 11th.. estimates of over 100,000 Iraqi civilians have died in Iraq.. and guess what?!?! They weren't even responsible for Sept 11th.)
-Garcon
14 - H.
I think the Republicans are out the door - and yes, I am infact green-party. Big deal. I think I will vote Democrat again this year, frankly anyone is better than Bush - they sent monkeys to the moon, and there' s one in office - figures. I've lost relatives in this war, and none of whom supported it. I'm as patriotic as the rest of my family, all my brothers served and are serving, and my own husband is in the military. But I still don't support this war.
It is true, the Democrats don't have unified solutions - but they are alot better than the problems Bush is generating. Is he "slow" or something? Is he not at home? I wonder with his vetoing of the stem-cell research, now my grandmother will suffer because another hope for a cure is gone. He's making this place a theocracy, and it's all flying in the face of the constitution.
Vote democrat, let's hope they do better. The Democrats are for the rest of us, and I'm tired of paying the rich.
15 - H.
I meant they sent monkeys to space, sorry.
16 - malcontent
Republicans will win because they will go to war with Iran or Syria or both. They don't have any problems with killing brown people in order to gain and maintain power and their base loves it when they do. If they are muslims then it's double points. Christians love nothing more then dead muslims.
17 - RedTard
"The Democrats are for the rest of us, and I'm tired of paying the rich."
Repeating that moronic lie doesn't make it any more true. Democrats are against success, that's why the true leftists hate america and the rich, they're both examples of success.
The leftist ideology is attractive to life failures who need some excuse, someone to blame, for their personal shortcomings. If you run the stats all sorts of people who have faced hardships, made poor decision, and generally failed in life, from the convicted felon to the minority with a victimhood comples to the single welfare mother, vote democratic.
Successful, intelligent, hard working folks, business owners, professionals, and non-union workers vote mostly republican.
You can make excuses all you want, but the only reason the Democratic party is ever even close to competing is because of bitter, jealous failures who want to punish those build, work, and manage the world we live in.
18 - RedTard
"They don't have any problems with killing brown people in order to gain and maintain power"
More race baiting bullshit from the 1920's leftist playbook. It's sad that so many still fall for this crap. Leftists have carried out 4 of the 5 greatest genocides in history. Brown, black, red, and white people have much more to fear from you loons than they do from the Republicans.
19 - Donald Cleveland
After all is said and done I think that Bush will go down in history as the worst President this country has ever had. His Presidency has been managed wrong from the start and I wonder why Americans voted him back in office. I am a staunch Republican but I have to tell you I am strongly considering jumping ship and going Democratic this next election. I can’t afford to stay Republican anymore.
20 - Allan K.
"Christians love nothing more then dead muslims."
I am a Christian and that statement is simply wrong. Please speak for yourself.
21 - Dave Nalle
The leftist ideology is attractive to life failures who need some excuse, someone to blame, for their personal shortcomings.
This isn't really fair. A lot of these folks who support the democrats aren't failures, they just have low expectations. They lack the confidence to strike out for themselves and think or act independently and take control of their lives. They'd rather have someone else tell them what to do and how to live. A lot of them buy into a group mentality and identify with a particular group, be it at work or in a social circle, or a particular class they think they belong to, and let that group determine how they think and the goals they set.
Accepting that sort of lifestyle can be the result of fear or a lack of self-esteem or a feeling of persecution or just being brought up in an environment which encourages dependency and discourages initiative. And the truth is that an awful lot of people live this way and are perfectly happy and functional in society. In fact, that kind of shut-down, self-limiting mentality is essential for certain types of work, so society needs these people, even if they tend to vote democrat.
Dave
22 - God-Bless American
Why it took 5 years for Americans to realize Bush is a disaster dissapoints me.
Republicans will keep their seats bringing up election-year issues that don't matter but drive voters to the polls, like flag burning, gay marriage and school prayer. People fall for it every time. Who cares the party is extremely corrupt, support Christian fundamentalists the way Bin Laden supports Islamic Fundamentalists, and screw the small guy?
23 - Bliffle
"The leftist ideology is attractive to life failures who need some excuse, someone to blame, for their personal shortcomings.
This isn't really fair. A lot of these folks who support the democrats aren't failures, they just have low expectations. They lack the confidence to strike out for themselves and think or act independently and take control of their lives."
etc.
Sounds like racism.
24 - God-Bless American
Oh, yeah, and isn't it funny how much Republicans court the Hispanic vote by saying a few words in Spanish in a speech, but then blame them for all the ills of this country when courting their core voters?
25 - Rep Man
Record deficits.
Corruption.
Disastrous war, that rather than hurt terrorism, has provoked more terrorists to join the ranks and given Iran and North Korea room to develop some real WMD.
Reasons for this war found to be bogus.
Ignoring the constitution and their convenience.
Ignoring warnings, like the impact of hurricanes hitting the Gulf Coast, global warming and pre 9/11 memos.
Tax breaks helping the economy? People would like to find out whose economy is exactly helping.
Where's Bin Laden?
One scandal after another.
And you know what? I'M VOTING REPUBLICAN. Because it's the immigrants and gays fault anyways. Plus, my pastor and Fox News say the Democrats are losers. And my pastor and Fox News ALWAYS tell the truth.