Bolstered by a $1.3 million cash infusion from his Tea Party "moneybomb" on Monday and a massive nationwide campaign to try to swing libertarian-leaning votes away from independent Joe Kennedy, Massachusetts GOP Senate hopeful Scott Brown has assumed a 4 point lead in the latest poll.
The Suffolk University poll conducted for WGBH found Brown supported by 50% of those polled with Democrat Martha Coakley trailing at only 46%. Libertarian independent Joe Kennedy's support has dropped to 3%.
This is the first poll to show Brown with a clear lead, but follows a trend demonstrated in a Rassumussen poll from Tuesday where he had closed to within 2 points of Coakley, up from being behind by 9 points last week. If this trend continues Brown could win a historic victory
It raises the possibility of an historic political upset in Massachusetts, with a Republican taking a seat which has been held by Democrats in a heavily Democrat dominated state for 57 years.
The shift to Brown seems to be based on the opposition of independent voters to Democrat fiscal policies and efforts at health care reform. Although Massachusetts leans more than 2 to 1 Democrat over Republican, independents in the state seem to be following the national polling trend of breaking 2 to 1 in favor of Republicans. Massachusetts has one of the highest percentages of independent voters in the nation, estimated at around 45% of the population.
This contest in Massachusetts is being watched nationwide as a referendum on the policies of the Obama administration and as an indicator of voting trends for the interim congressional elections later this year.