Every day we live we're playing the odds. And the fact is that when it comes to mass murders, despite recent events, the odds are enormously on our side. Mass murders like this where more than 10 people are killed happen in the United States about once every three years and they've been happening at that frequency for generations. Most of them are not committed with guns. Bombs and arson are the most popular and the most lethal methods, used in seven out of the ten largest mass murders in US history.
We're all gambling with our lives just by going to work or walking down the street. Another Mark Barton could gun us down at our desks. Another David Burke could crash a plane into us on the drive home. Another Julio Gonzales could burn us alive inside our favorite bar. Don't feel safe if you don't live in the United States. In the last 30 years there have been similar mass murders in every major, populous nation. Don't think that stronger gun laws or even a police state are going to protect you. There have been similar killings in Australia, Canada, England, France, Spain, Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Japan, and Italy. And those are just the ones I've heard of and the countries where such killings are considered unusual enough to take note of. All of those countries have stronger gun laws than the United States and yet their home-grown crazies have found ways to kill lots of people when the urge took them.
The good news is that when you gamble your life on the hope that today won't be your date with the next Cho Seung-Hui, you're betting with the odds enormously on your side. In the last century the total number of deaths from mass murders (defined as killings of five or more non-family members) in the United States totals fewer than 500 people (not including the victims of 9/11, which is classed as an act of war or terrorism). During that time more than half a billion people have lived and died in the United States. That means that your chance of dying in a mass murder like the one Monday at Virginia Tech are about 1 in 1.6 million. According to the National Science Council that would be about the same odds as your chances of dying in a streetcar accident (if you can even find a streetcar to die in). The scary flip-side of this is that your chances are about 1 in 84 of dying in a car crash and 1 in 218 of dying in an accidental fall.
Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - Michael J. West
Thank you, Dave, for getting it right. The ONLY proper object for finger-pointing is Cho Seung-Hui. It runs no deeper, in any way shape or form, than a disturbed young man with violence in his sights.
I completely understand the need for blame: it makes people feel as though we have some measure of control over these things. But until we accept that life and death are matters largely out of our hands, we're playing a fool's game.
2 - gette
Very good editorial. I think we need to keep in mind what was discovered about Charles Whitman after his murderous rampage at The University of Texas in 1966: he had a brain tumor. That tumor was somehow responsible for his warped thinking (I am not a medical professional, so don't ask me how). How can anyone plan their lives around the anomoly of that?
3 - Dave Nalle
I'm not sure we need to be entirely fatalistic about it, but it would be nice to see people look on the positive side of tragedies like this. They really aren't all that common, and they're almost impossible to predict or control. There are so many better things to worry about that it's almost criminal for the media to hype them the way that they do so much out of proportion to any real threat.
Dave
4 - Michael J. West
There are so many better things to worry about that it's almost criminal for the media to hype them the way that they do so much out of proportion to any real threat.
True enough, and fair enough to boot. (Of course I've been saying the same thing for over a week about the Don Imus affair...:-D)
5 - Dave Nalle
The Imus thing was hyped even more than this looks like it's going to be, and more out of proportion because it was truly trivial and ridiculous, whereas this is at least a genuine tragedy.
The most ridiculous thing I've heard so far today is people expressing outrage at Simon Cowel of all people for rolling his eyes when one of the American Idol contestants mentioned the VaTech murders in his little post-singing interview. Truly a silly thing to make into an issue.
Dave
6 - Michael J. West
The silly, trivial issues are the only ones that most people genuinely understand, so they make them into the serious, major issues without even thinking about it.
Imus's comments are the obvious example, but damn it, the fact that he was fired over them doesn't deserve the hype and scrutiny it's gotten either.
7 - Clavos
As I mentioned on another thread, it's disappointing to me that the small heroisms of various students and faculty members such as Professor Librescu (who gave his life to protect the students in his classroom), haven't gotten more exposure in the MSM.
Not only do those individuals deserve the recognition, their stories can serve as inspiration and comfort to the bereaved, and indeed, the entire nation.
But you have to really dig to learn about most of them.
8 - Dave Nalle
When I decided to write on this subject it was a toss-up between taking this slant and focusing on Librescu and the other people who did what they could to save lives. Maybe I need to write a second article. For what it's worth I did notice that Librescu was the number one googled name on Google News today.
Dave
9 - Les Slater
A lot of people are distressed about this 1 in 1.6 million odds of it happening to them. I'll assume Dave's math is correct.
I just did a little research on lottery odds. A mid-November, 2005, 12-state Maga Millions prize reached $135 million. The chances of winning were 1 in 175 million. I remember such occasions. There seemed to be more excitement about winning than there is grief over the killings.
The emotion seems to be proportional to the magnitude with little regard for the probability of it effecting them.
In Vegas a slot payoff makes a lot of noise so many can hear it. Keeps the business well lubricated and profitable. The media makes more profit the more they can play on emotions. This is where Imus fits in too.
10 - Matthew T. Sussman
When you read first hand accounts of students who were nearby, you see no need for blame. Rather, you see them needing us.
11 - Lumpy
So what youLre saying is that u have no chance at all of being shot in a mass shooting and 10 times less of winning the lottery. What the hell is wrong with people that they fear one and believe in the other? Might as well believe in gnomes and pixies.
12 - Lee Richards
Dave,
I agree with most of your comments and especially the idea that running scared through life isn't the way to live or achieve much. I think you did a good job of putting unreasonable fears into perspective.
In this instance, I haven't found the media to be hyping the tragedy, as much as is sometimes the case. Of course that could be because where I live, so close to these events, we wanted and needed all the information and coverage we could get, local and national.
I would like to say something about the concern and efforts of George Bush for the families, students, and Tech community. Leaving out the politics, the war and all other negatives for once, I must say that Bush was truly compassionate in his response. On a personal basis, and just as he did in the aftermath of 9-11, Bush showed a humanity, caring and empathy that gave me new respect for the good he is capable of as a leader. Many of us in Virginia (and I have been strongly critical of his policies and leadership) were touched and heartened by his humbleness and sincerity.
13 - Dave Nalle
In this instance, I haven't found the media to be hyping the tragedy, as much as is sometimes the case. Of course that could be because where I live, so close to these events, we wanted and needed all the information and coverage we could get, local and national.
Between the daytime talkshows and the cable news networks and the primetime news magazines it's getting pretty much wall-to-wall coverage as much as or more than the Imus business. It deserves more coverage than Imus, but a lot of the coverage is awfully inflammatory and fearmongering and the rest is just relentlessly stupid and superficial.
Dave
14 - RJ
"it's almost criminal for the media to hype them the way that they do so much out of proportion to any real threat."
Yep. And by doing so, they are merely encouraging other demented people to engage in "copycat" crimes...
The media will have blood on their hands if there is another "incident" like this in the coming days/weeks...
15 - RJ
"On a personal basis, and just as he did in the aftermath of 9-11, Bush showed a humanity, caring and empathy that gave me new respect for the good he is capable of as a leader. Many of us in Virginia (and I have been strongly critical of his policies and leadership) were touched and heartened by his humbleness and sincerity."
Bush is a good man. He drives me nuts with some of his decisions, and some of the people he has chosen to surround himself with, but he is a good and decent and truly compassionate man.
It's a shame that it takes a horrible tragedy like this to get us to appreciate that fact. :-/
16 - Lee Richards
Dave,
Once again, it depends on your point of view. I probably would agree, given your perspective from a distance. A death in the family, though, is of far more significance to the family than to outsiders, so what you see as stupid and superficial is to others of us closer to the tragedy respectful interest and almost universal tribute.
17 - Servant
Wow. Thanks for writting such a nice article, and I have yet to see any negative comments yet(a first so far).
Although, as soon as I heard about the shootings I knew someone would blame video games. Ah, the bitter taste of victory.
18 - MCH
"Bush is a good man. He drives me nuts with some of his decisions, and some of the people he has chosen to surround himself with, but he is a good and decent and truly compassionate man."
- RJ Elliott
Tell that to the families of the 3200-plus killed in GW's cluster-fuck in Iraq.
19 - Dave Nalle
MCH, Les Slater said something nice about Bush. Why don't you attack him too? It's not a crime to note Bush's good qualities when he displays them. Your simplistic view of the world depresses me. Go stalk people on another thread.
Dave
20 - Clavos
Tell that to the families of the 3200-plus killed in GW's cluster-fuck in Iraq.
Interestingly enough, a significant number of those families support him...
21 - troll
Lee Richards actually
22 - Dave Nalle
Right you are, troll. For some reason I get those two names confused more often than not.
As for Bush's behavior, it has indeed been exemplary. There's no question he thinks of himself as a good man and tries to do the right thing. I would guess that's even the case in Iraq. But it's clear that all the good intentions in the world aren't enough to solve some problems.
Dave
23 - troll
excellent sentiment in the article btw
24 - ZZ Bachman
Without wading through all the previous comments, (which I will after posting this) I just want to commend you Dave on what, in my opinion, is a fair and balanced point of view regarding the violent world around us and the events of Monday.
Lulled into a false sense of security for years, 9/11 gave us a wake up call. We have lulled ourselves once again into a false sense of security since then and now this tragedy wakes us up again from our slumber.
While the media, politicians and America in general discuss all the BLAME and counter measures in an effort to lull ourselves back to that sweet comforting place of false security centrifuges are spinning in Tehran in the hands of madmen who also have visions of glory and making history. A even more sobering thought in comparison... As a nation will we block the doors with our bodies, hide under a desk, or recognize the threat before hand and act on it? Or ignore the symptoms and hope they don't amount to anything harmful despite all the psychiatric treatment being prescribed at the U.N. ?? An eerie parallel I ask our readers to ponder...
25 - MCH
[Entire comment deleted. MCH, if you don't stop this repetitive posting, I will seek permission to have you compulsorily rested. I absolutely don't want to, but if you leave me no choice, please trust that I will do it without hesitation. Thank you. Comments Editor.]