The discerning reader will recall that on April 15 I courageously took the position that the missiles paraded by North Korea’s youthful leader, Kim Jong-Un, in celebration of 100 years of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) founded by his grandfather, and of his own ascendency to the leadership position, were probably replicas. They were, I suggested, mock-ups, or empty shells.
Now, in an article in the Los Angeles Times dated April 26, experts are quoted as having drawn that same conclusion. The Times article points to “odd inconsistencies” in the missiles' design. In fact, not one, but six missiles were paraded that day (a surprise to me). Markus Schiller, senior associate at Schmucker Technology, a Munich based consulting company, and the company's own Robert H. Schmucker allude to the fact that no two of the six were exactly the same; a “glaring issue” for weapons that must be carefully engineered. The experts additionally note that the celebratory warheads appeared incapable of separating from the missiles. The surface of these missiles is thin and undulating sheet metal, which couldn’t withstand atmospheric reentry. Schiller said, “That's plain impossible. It’s like looking at a train that has steam exhaust and electricity at the same time.”
I asked the question later that day, in a comment on that Blogcritics article, whether if the missiles were indeed mock-ups or empty shells, would they then need to be transported by Chinese built trailers? Recall that China was accused of violations of international law in connection with the supplying of the tractors. I wrote at that time that:
In an odd turn of events experts from more than one agency have noted that the trailer used to transport the missile or replica of a missile as many believe, must have come from China. These experts suggest a violation of sanctions by China. Wendell Minnick, a reporter on Asian military developments for Washington based Defense News says the size of the vehicle "represents a quantum leap forward"; and suspects that it is unlikely to be of North Korean origin, owing to its technical sophistication. He construes China as the probable source.
Pieter Wezeman, arms transfer expert with the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute noted the technical implausibility, but said there was not a likelihood of intentional violation by China.
These conjectures tend to increase the loss of face of North Korea following the failed missile launch in recent days, and that disdain might be at the source of the outcries. In addition it is not clear whether these suspicions would remain, in the event that the missile being transported was simply a much lighter hollow shell.
State Department spokesman Mark Toner said China has provided repeated assurances that it is complying fully with UN Security Council resolutions sanctioning North Korea. “We take them at their word,” he told a news briefing in Washington.
Military analyst Richard Fisher of the International Assessment and Strategy Center near Washington calls the trailer a product of the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC) for export to North Korea. Fisher notes that alignment of the sixteen wheels would necessitate a sophisticated onboard computer system which the North Koreans probably have yet to develop.
In truth I question whether some of these issues should have even been brought up, and if some minor damage may result from the nitpicking.
Article comments
1 - Glenn Contrarian
I saw a comment somewhere wherein the writer said he'd hate to be a North Korean rocket scientist right now. NK did lose immense face, and between their culture and the bureaucratic insecurity that is endemic in any tyranny, it doesn't take much to reason out that right now a witch hunt of epic proportions is making its rounds in North Korea. They've played at brinksmanship for so long that I'm not sure they know any other way to conduct intercourse with nations other than China. Problem is, now it's a relative kid who's nominally in charge, and there's lots of generals with far more experience in life-and-death politics that are probably more cutthroat than anything since Stalin purged the Soviet military in the 1930's.
No, I suspect NK is rather unstable right now. If it can get through the next two years without a coup, then it will be stable for another lifetime of a Kim. Otherwise...I just hope it doesn't spill out over the DMZ.
2 - John Lake
And we recall that American politicians are openly working toward the uniting of the Korean peninsula.
3 - John Lake
I should document that previous comment:
In speaking at the Seoul Nuclear Summit and to South Korean University students at Hankun University, President Obama spoke eloquently” The United States has no hostile intent toward your country and is committed to peace. There will be no more rewards for provocations. You can continue down the road you are on, but we know where that leads. It leads to more of the same --- more broken dreams, more isolation, ever more distance between the people of North Korea and the dignity and opportunity they deserve." Then Obama offered a prediction: “The Koreas, North and South, will someday be united and free.”
4 - peter petterson
I read some time that the old Soviet Union used to display 'shells too in many of its military parades. Comments, John?
5 - John Lake
The display of military hardware isn't illegal, but there was some question as to whether North Korea had that many missiles, and if China had supplied the tractors, which might verge on being illegal.