I've said there could be a huge "surprise" win for Kerry in spite of the slanted polls:
The polls are off by a much larger amount than the "Margin of Error" they keep telling us about. What they're not telling us is that the samples on many of the polls are skewed.
Poll results reflect a more Republican opinion than exists in reality because the samples in many polls contain more Republicans than Democrats.
The electorate, however is comprised of more registered Democrats (33%) than Republicans (29%).
In spite of that, Gallup, for instance, samples 38-40% Republicans and 33% Democrats.
The voter turnout in last two presidential elections, however, has been exactly the opposite: 39% Democrats, 34-35% Republicans. [Slanted Polls: They Lean Right] (Story links open in new windows)
So with the poll results so close even with the partisan bias, I wouldn't be surprised if Kerry were to win by a margin of at least 6% of the popular vote (you heard it here first) in the real world.
But that may not be enough, now that Attorney-General John Ashcroft has stepped into the picture:
Bush Seeks Limit to Suits Over Voting Rights
Bush administration lawyers argued in three closely contested states last week that only the Justice Department, and not voters themselves, may sue to enforce the voting rights set out in the Help America Vote Act, which was passed in the aftermath of the disputed 2000 election.
Since the civil rights era of the 1960s, individuals have gone to federal court to enforce their right to vote, often with the support of groups such as the NAACP, the AFL-CIO, the League of Women Voters or the state parties. And until now, the Justice Department and the Supreme Court had taken the view that individual voters could sue to enforce federal election law.
But in legal briefs filed in connection with cases in Ohio, Michigan and Florida, the administration's lawyers argue that the new law gives Atty. Gen. John Ashcroft the exclusive power to bring lawsuits to enforce its provisions. [The Race For The White House 10/29/04 subscription] (Story links open in new windows)
Article comments
1 - RedTard
Fortunately, I don't think we will need lawsuits to determine the winner this go round. Bush is neck and neck in the polls but I agree that the polls are slanted towards Republicans. I believe that several groups that vote Democratic are not represented well by telephone polls. My prediction is Kerry by about 4-5% popular vote with a solid electoral win.
2 - Hal Pawluk
Picking myself up off the floor, where I landed when I saw the first comment:
Nice to see we agree on something, RT :-)
3 - RedTard
I didn't say I wanted Kerry to win I just think it is quite likely. I also hope, regardless of who wins, that this thing does not wind up in court as a repeat of 2000.
Despite my status as an evil right wing conspirator I don't really like seeing America in turmoil.
4 - Hal Pawluk
The result are going to have to be pretty strong for one candidate or the other, more than enouught so provisional ballots won't need to be counted.
If not, it's going to drag on.
5 - Jason Koulouras
Amazing how the Justice Department can even begin to argue that they have the exclusive right in this area - sad state of affairs. Ashcroft, remember this is a western democracy, not a centralised state
Cheers