As Election Day draws closer, political campaigns are heating up across the country. And one of the hottest races is the Democrat Primary battle in Connecticut.
Incumbent Senator Joe Lieberman, first elected to the Senate in 1988, is running for a fourth term. And he is a shoo-in to win reelection against any candidate the GOP puts up against him. But he needs to win the Democrat Party's nomination first.
Lieberman's opponent in the August 8th Primary is a multi-millionaire leftist named Ned Lamont, who is partially self-financing his campaign.
At first, Lamont got little attention from the media, and therefore registered only scant support in the public opinion polls. However, his relentless attacks on Lieberman's unwavering support for the war in Iraq has boosted his public profile, and now his support among liberal Democrat voters in Connecticut is growing quickly. Lieberman was out-polling Lamont by nearly 50 points just a month ago, but now his lead has been trimmed to 25 points.
This surge against the incumbent has put such a scare into the Lieberman campaign that there is now serious talk about the incumbent Democrat seeking to gather enough signatures to get on the ballot as an Independent, as a fall-back position should he fail to secure his party's nomination.
Because of these developments, I can easily see the following scenario playing out:
- Lieberman's support among Connecticut Democrats continues to plummet, while Lamont's continues to grow
- Lieberman is then forced to openly solicit signatures for an Independent slot on the ballot
- This enrages Democrats nationwide, who are already questioning Lieberman's allegiance to his party due to his support for the war in Iraq and some other Bush policies
- Lamont wins the Democrat Primary in August; Lieberman is humiliated at being forced to run as an Independent
Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - Dave Nalle
If Lieberman were a congressman he'd be totally screwed here because the DCCC is run by Rahm Emanuel who is trying to purge their candidate base of anyone even vaguely moderate. As a Senator he's probably in somewhat better shape as far as party backing.
Personally I wouldn't welcome the fascist bastard in the GOP at all.
Dave
2 - RJ Elliott
Why do you think he's a "fascist"?
3 - Dave Nalle
For the obvious reasons - his opposition to free speech and support of censorship, his strong support of the war on drugs, his enthusiasm for the patriot act, and his generally pro-state and anti-individual policies.
The only thing Lieberman has ever done that I liked was to back Bush on social security privatization.
Dave
4 - Steve Rhodes
Problem is Rahm Emanuel backed Tammy Duckworth over a more progressive candidate to try to take over Henry Hyde's seat.
And don't count on Lieberman winning if he runs as an independent. Or caucusing with Republicans if he does happen to win.
5 - RJ Elliott
Steve:
I'll admit that the scenario outlined above was purely hypothetical. But it seems plausible, given the facts...
6 - Windowdog
Schumer seems to be doing an expert job of playing this both ways. He's supporting Joe just enough that if Lieberman wins in the end it'll be "hey sorry about the crazies in your state, we always loved you." If Lieberman really tanks and Lamont wins then Schumer stops returning his phone calls and Reid gets to look tough on dissenters by stripping Joe of his committee seats when he goes independant.
Any way you slice it Joe sees himself as a Democrat, there is really no reason to switch caucuses. Jeffords felt completely opposed to the actions of his caucus, Lieberman is one of the more powerful Senators in the party. He'd lose all that by switching. More likely he'll follow McCain's route and just buck party line stuff more openly. Considering he's already a regular on Hannity it won't be hard to do.
7 - RJ Elliott
UPDATE:
Latest polling data here:
Senator Joe Lieberman (D) might be better off skipping the Democratic Primary and running as an Independent this November. The latest Rasmussen Reports survey of the Primary Election shows Lieberman leading challenger Ned Lamont by just six percentage points, 46% to 40%. The survey was conducted Monday night, June 12.
8 - RJ Elliott
"Any way you slice it Joe sees himself as a Democrat, there is really no reason to switch caucuses."
Not now, no. But what about a few months from now, when his own party is attacking him, and he is forced to run as an Independent?
Sean Hannity is in love with Lieberman, and so is John McCain. I can easily see Lieberman siding with the GOP if he is forced to win re-election as an Independent...
How about...McCain-Lieberman in 2008? Stranger things have happened...
9 - RJ Elliott
From the Hartford Courant:
[I]f Lieberman quits the primary and bases his campaign on an appeal to Republicans, unaffiliated voters and conservative Democrats, he suddenly will have to argue that Lamont really is allied with a far-left minority within the Democratic Party.
"The message shifts overnight, and that's the hard part," said George Jepsen, a former Democratic state chairman and state Senate majority leader.
Or, as Lamont's campaign manager, Tom Swan, said: "Is Ned a Republican, or a `left-wing weirdo?'"
Although theoretically Lieberman could withdraw on the eve of the primary, analysts in both parties say that to embark on a successful petition candidacy, he'd need to commit no later than the middle of next month.
10 - RJ Elliott
Lieberman 'proud' to work with Republicans
11 - RJ Elliott
LIEBERMAN WILL RUN AS AN INDEPENDENT!
12 - Dave Nalle
RJ, that last link is no good. Reuters seems to have pulled the story. If true it's a major, major political breakthrough and someone - you - needs to write it up in detail for BC.
Dave
13 - Jet in Columbus
You're right Dave, when I googled it many were "Page can not be found" however from associated press...
Lieberman Weighing Run As Independent
Jun 14 2:00 PM US/Eastern
By SUSAN HAIGH
Associated Press Writer
HARTFORD, Conn.
Democratic Sen. Joe Lieberman, warily watching his primary challenger advance in the polls, must soon decide whether to start collecting signatures for a possible independent bid this November.
Lieberman's campaign contends that it's focused only on winning the Aug. 8 primary, but the Democrat has not ruled out petitioning his way onto the November ballot as part of a backup plan to secure a fourth term in the Senate.
"I am not going to close out any options," the senator recently told reporters.
Lieberman has until Aug. 9 _ the day after the Democratic primary _ to collect 7,500 signatures from registered voters to gain a spot on the ballot as an unaffiliated candidate.
But any effort to gather signatures before the primary would be a sign of weakness, indicating that Lieberman, the Democratic vice presidential nominee in 2000, fears that he could lose to businessman Ned Lamont. The effort also would rile Democrats who already question Lieberman's party loyalty and his perceived closeness to President Bush.
The senator has been a strong backer of the Iraq war.
Christopher Kukk, an associate political science professor at Western Connecticut State University, said it's a risk Lieberman may be willing to take as Lamont continues to make gains in the polls.
"I think he'll alienate Democratic voters, but to be honest with you, I think he already has alienated Democratic voters," Kukk said. "If Lamont is gaining ... I think you'll see Lieberman jump."
According to a recent Quinnipiac University Poll, 57 percent of registered Democrats in Connecticut said they would vote for Lieberman, compared to 32 percent for Lamont. A month ago, Lieberman drew 65 percent to Lamont's 19 percent.
The poll found that if Lieberman runs as an independent, he would win with 56 percent of the vote, compared to 18 percent for Lamont and 8 percent for Republican Alan Schlesinger. Lieberman enjoys higher ratings among Republicans and unaffiliated voters than Democrats, the poll found. Unaffiliated voters are the state's largest bloc of voters, followed by Democrats and then Republicans.
Lamont, a multimillionaire owner of a cable television company, launched an ad campaign this week asking for Lieberman's support should he win the primary, and promising to back Lieberman should the senator prevail.
"What do you say, Senator?" Lamont asks in the radio ad. "May the best Democrat win."
Lamont's campaign manager, Tom Swan, said Democrats want to know what Lieberman will do.
"If Joe Lieberman is considering abandoning the Democratic Party, the people have a right to know it," Swan said. "Ned is agreeing to abide by the process and respect the choice of the people. Will Joe?"
No matter what Lieberman does, Kukk said he believes the veteran senator will win re-election. Lieberman still enjoys a strong lead over Lamont, and Kukk said if Lieberman runs as an unaffiliated candidate, it likely won't hurt him with the general electorate because party loyalty isn't very strong anymore.
"I think they are thinking of it," Kukk said of a possible Lieberman independent run. "If you're looking for your political survival, you'd be silly not to."
14 - Dave Nalle
Weighing a run is not the same as 'going to run as an independent'. I'm looking forward to writing about an independent Lieberman candidacy myself, but it looks like he's not going to commit until after the primary which is a full month off.
Dave
15 - Jet in Columbus
Well excuse me for trying to help!
16 - RJ Elliott
Try this link instead...
17 - Dave Nalle
Same problem, RJ.
Dave
18 - RJ Elliott
Grr...how about this one?
19 - Jet in Columbus
Very strange, the first time I clicked it it didn't work, second time to be sure it did, that just now it didn't again.
Hmmmmmmm
Gremlins?
20 - RJ Elliott
And another...
21 - RJ Elliott
This post has a ten-point prediction on what will happen over the next few months in Connecticut.
Point 1 - "Lieberman's support among Connecticut Democrats continues to plummet, while Lamont's continues to grow" has already occurred
Point 2 - "Lieberman is then forced to openly solicit signatures for an Independent slot on the ballot" has now happened as well
Point 3 - "This enrages Democrats nationwide, who are already questioning Lieberman's allegiance to his party due to his support for the war in Iraq and some other Bush policies" well, just watch the news over the next couple weeks...
22 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
JR,
Nice job with the analysis. There seems to be only one point you may have overlooked. Lieberman as an Independent can cut a deal with the Democrats for decent committee assignments. As a Republican, he is at the bottom of their totem pol(e)...
23 - RJ Elliott
Ruvy,
After November, when Lieberman wins re-election as an Independent candidate, and has spent the last few months being attacked by fellow Democrats, and the GOP retains control of the Senate...well, I feel the Republicans might be likely to offer some sort of Chairmanship of an important committee, while all the Democrats can offer is apologies...
24 - RJ Elliott
Here is the ten-point scenario I predicted back in mid-June:
1 - Lieberman's support among Connecticut Democrats continues to plummet, while Lamont's continues to grow
2 - Lieberman is then forced to openly solicit signatures for an Independent slot on the ballot
3 - This enrages Democrats nationwide, who are already questioning Lieberman's allegiance to his party due to his support for the war in Iraq and some other Bush policies
4 - Lamont wins the Democrat Primary in August; Lieberman is humiliated at being forced to run as an Independent
5 - The leftist "netroots" are able to attract hundreds of thousands of dollars in donations to Lamont's campaign
6 - Various Hollywood kooks publicly offer their support to Lamont
7 - Some Democrats in Congress even go so far as to openly support Lamont over Lieberman
8 - Election Day arrives, and Lieberman (who has universal name-recognition and is generally popular in his state) wins in an absolute landslide, by at least 20 points over Lamont, with the Republican barely getting double-figures
9 - Lieberman, newly minted as an Independent Senator and still angry about his rough treatment by fellow Dems, decides to "pull a Jim Jeffords" and aligns himself with the Senate Republicans
10 - Leftists go completely berserk
1, 2, 3, 5, and 6 have already happened. If 4 happens (seems pretty likely), then 7 has already happened as well, since numerous elected Democrats have pledged to support "The Democrat Nominee," even if that ain't Lieberman. Also, if 4 happens, then 8 is pretty much a given, and so is 10.
The only real question left is 9...
25 - RJ Elliott
Lieberman now down by 10....