This is a developing story, and from the standpoint of news, the who, what and where of what I write here will be outdated by the time it is published.
I learned about the swine flu while sitting in the doctor's office on Monday, 27 April 2009, looking at a commuter paper called yisraél hayóm, Israel Today. The front page displayed a headline in Hebrew, "Security [Defense] Minister: 'We will handle the swine flu!'" This is the typical bragging style of Security Minister Ehud Barak.
Inside the newspaper was a map of the world showing where cases of swine flu had broken out as well as the locations of suspicious cases, the ones in Europe which have since proved to be swine flu.
Mexico, where pork is an important food, led the list with over 60 dead (this was Monday's paper) and at that time there were cases in the USA, Canada, New Zealand, and — wouldn't you know it — one case here in Israel, in Netanya, where the pork-eating Russian immigrants abound. Apparently there is a price to be paid when you have an achin' for bacon, one that goes beyond heart attacks and high cholesterol. Another case was reported Monday on the 12:00 Voice of Israel radio news and was confirmed to be swine flu by health officials here.
According to Alex Jones reporting on Saturday, a doctor at a Mexican hospital sent an e-mail to the BBC, telling them that the real number of deaths from the pig flu was over 200 (as opposed to the then-reported 60). It wouldn't be a surprise to discover that the Mexican government was massaging the numbers in reporting the number of dead. The Egyptians and Pakistanis did the same when the bird flu was killing their people a while back.
But the really interesting data came at the Recombinomics website, which reports that this is evidently a human-to-human variation of the H1N1 virus, mixed with the H1N1 swine flu virus; very similar, in other words, to the 1918 Spanish Flu.
On YouTube there were also various video updates from the BBC, from stations in the States and elsewhere, all talking about the severity of the swine flu in Mexico (over 150 deaths reported) and how the swine flu is attacking young and healthy people.
Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - Dan
I'm thinking of stocking my freezer with a lot of cheap pork chops.
2 - Clavos
LOL, Dan!
Don't forget the bacon...
3 - zingzing
when/if this thing proves more deadly than the regular old flu, then i'll believe that this is a serious threat and not a media-hyped creation. maybe it is serious, but comparing this to 1918 is just a little on the hysterical side.
#1, it's not 1918. back then we didn't have penicillin or even microscopes, if that tells you anything, and death rates from these kinds of flu viruses have dropped over 90% since that time.
#2, the infection/mutation rate was greatly accelerated by large concentrations of soldiers living in dirty, close quarters.
#3, bird flu! bird flu! or swine flu, pt 1 (1976)!
stay scared. i'm getting on the damn subway and going to a packed bar now.
4 - zingzing
ahem. electron microscopes, i mean. before anyone gets started.
5 - Clavos
That's what I get for being slow on the uptake...
6 - roger nowosielski
I wish I could join you, zing for a couple of stiff martinis. What's your favorite NY bar, BTW? I used to know all the joints in the Wall St. district. A "Commuters' Bar," by the tubes, was a heck of a place. You'd catch all the floozies on their way to Jersey.
7 - Ruvy
Well, zing, since your comment seems most dismissive, we'll address it first.
This flu has killed a whole bunch of people in a very short time after the flu season came to an end. That is why the WHO is taking it seriously. If you wish to be scared or not is your business. Given that you live in New York, you will likely not avoid infection. Being infected with this airborne virus is not the issue. The issue is, "do you fall sick from it?" and then the second issue is, "if you do fall sick from it, will it be serious enough for your body to generate an immune response (atypical pneumonia) that will kill you?"
On an individual level, those are the only real questions, zing. On a larger level, the issue is, "will this swine flu follow in the footsteps of the Spanish flu?" This means killer waves of influenza in October-November.
You have the link to the raw footage at WPXI, footage I suggested you watch. Beyond all that, the choice is all yours.
8 - Ruvy
Roger,
A "Commuters' Bar," by the tubes, was a heck of a place. You'd catch all the floozies on their way to Jersey.
Spoken like a true New Yorker....
9 - Ruvy
Clavos,
I think this is your work in publishing, no? There is one error I made.
This sentence, Taking the "conspiracy" angle out of this podcast and treating this as a natural event, the information includes this raw footage from WPXI,.... should read, Taking the "conspiracy" angle out of this podcast and treating this as a natural event, the information reflects this raw footage from WPXI,
TIA,
Ruvy
10 - Ruvy
While the previous comment reflects my error in one word, I wish to emphasize to everyone else reading, that I'm not buying any conspiracy theories about this swine flu or its spread, no matter how convincingly presented.
11 - zingzing
roger: " What's your favorite NY bar, BTW?"
my favorite bar, and it's in brooklyn, of course, is call fette sau. it's a place that serves american whiskeys and vinger bbq. they also serve some great american beers. there's a place across the street, called something ridiculous (meaning, it's not called "something ridiculous,) that serves a load of great world beers. it's owned by the same people. so you go get some great beer, you go next door, get loaded up on pork (so fitting) and then drink a bunch of whiskeys. i'm not a big gin fan (in fact, i prefer a vodka martini--gin is a dirty drunk,) so, for martinis, you might have to go somewhere else.
but if you want to see new york, fuck manhattan. brooklyn. best place in the world.
12 - zingzing
ruvy: "Given that you live in New York, you will likely not avoid infection."
hasn't hit me yet. nor anyone else, far as i can tell.
"Being infected with this airborne virus is not the issue."
airborne? i don't think it's quite floating around like that yet. it's not quite that serious. really, only one person in nyc has died of it, most symptoms have been mild. it's just like a cold.
"The issue is, "do you fall sick from it?" and then the second issue is, "if you do fall sick from it, will it be serious enough for your body to generate an immune response (atypical pneumonia) that will kill you?""
obviously, i hoping not. i hope you're hoping not, too. i've got a good strong immune system. if this thing is anything like the spanish flu, i'll die from it. but it hasn't really gotten that bad yet. maybe it will. who knows?
yes, we should be careful. but i'm not wearing a mask or wearing gloves on the subway. fuck that. when this thing turns into the plague, i'll figure it out. there are plenty of places that will go first. i'll have all the warning i need.
but this is all shit. i was talking to my mother tonight (who i am going to visit for mother's day, fuck you very much) and she said, "you know, your dad and i lived through swine flue in '76," and i said, "everyone lived through it," and she said, "that's true."
13 - zingzing
oh christ,
i['m] hoping not
&
flu
thanks. it's 3:30. leave me alone.
14 - zingzing
shit, look it up. this stuff comes up every 10 years or so. 1976, 1988, 2009. alright, so the 1990s didn't have one, but so what?. this is total hysteria. just go about your day. all will be well, unless it's not, and in either case, you're fucked, so fuck it. really.
15 - Ruvy
Israel's Ministry of Health raised this nation's level of alert to five today, following the discovery o two new swine flu cases reports Arutz Sheva. Israel apparently has a phased alert level that mirrors that of the World Health Organization.
In other news, an Israeli start-up has developed a system to detect swine flu and other animal diseases before they spread.
16 - roger nowosielski
The problem, to the best of my understanding, is not the present strain but the possibility of its mutation in the immediate future.
17 - Clavos
Ruvy #9:
Fixed, amigo.
18 - Ruvy
Muchas gracias, Clavos
19 - Ruvy
The problem, to the best of my understanding, is not the present strain but the possibility of its mutation in the immediate future.
Yes and no. This article in the International Herald Tribune gives you a flavor for the arguing going on over this among virologists.
From the article:
While some scientists looking at the virus genome debated its origin, Peter Palese, chairman of microbiology at Mt. Sinai School of Medicine, found cause for optimism about the future. All the pandemic viruses of the last century " the 1918, 1957 and 1968 flus " had a mutation in the gene coding for a protein known as PB1-F2 that is thought to make a virus more lethal. The mutation, he said, is not in the new strain.
Dr. Niman, looking at the same sequences, saw a mutation that, at the same position in H5N1, appeared to speed the virus’s spread in Egypt.
20 - roger nowosielski
Hey, Ruvy,
You did have problems posting, no? I'm still cold to the new BC site; and I'm not alone, it seems. The participation level must be down to forty percent or less than in had been.
I'm not certain if I'll warm up to it again. The interactive/immediacy aspect appears to be gone.
21 - Joanne Huspek
Ruvy, I laugh at the swine flu. Well, not really, but several tens of thousands die from flu every year. The way I figure it, if it's your turn to go, it's your turn.
Roger... I'm with you. It took me all of yesterday to get my article in. Something kept eating it. I'm no computer geek, and it took a long time to look up my links and place them. Your point on the interactive problem also strikes a nerve with me too. And, since I'm old and in the complaining mood, the bright white is hard on the eyes.
Of course, maybe the participation is down because it's finally spring.
22 - Dr Dreadful
zing2, your assessment of why the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic shouldn't necessarily be looked at as the model for what's about to happen leaves a bit to be desired.
Yes, you caught the microscope thing but some of your other points are a bit wide of the mark.
Even if penicillin had existed in 1918 it wouldn't have done a blind bit of good, since it's an antibiotic and flu is a virus.
You correctly point out that soldiers living in close confines (not to mention that they were in many cases already weakened from fighting and being gassed) provided the perfect transmission medium. A second exacerbating factor was that the resources of the medical community were already stretched to breaking point by the war, and could not adequately cope with outbreaks in the civilian population.
Furthermore, the medical consensus was that the flu was caused by a bacterium rather than a virus. Consequently, the wrong drugs were being used to combat the disease.
These are all important points. This is not 1918 and the world is far better equipped to cope with a pandemic: which is why the bird flu outbreak a couple of years ago (which Ruvy held out great hopes for), while extremely nasty, was very limited in its impact.
And BTW, just to clarify, Tamiflu is not a vaccine. It's an ingestible drug for the treatment and, in certain circumstances, prevention of flu infections.
23 - zingzing
i'm pretty disappointed with the comments section. the breaking up of the pages, the ads, the design of the "recent comments" section, the loss of the old "author comments," (so you can go find what people said about what way back when,) and so many other things.
the site could have used an update, but this drastic overhaul might end up doing more damage than good. it took me a while just to adjust my eyes to it.
24 - roger nowosielski
It doesn't have yet the right feel, Joanne. Too antiseptic to my taste. Good for advertisers, I suppose, but us. . . I almost feel as though I'm disconnected.
Just think. I haven't seen Cindy online for two days now - one of the most prolific of commenters - and I miss it. I have to email her just to learn she's still alive. It's a bummer.
Let's hope it will improve, and soon.
25 - zingzing
doc: "Even if penicillin had existed in 1918 it wouldn't have done a blind bit of good, since it's an antibiotic and flu is a virus."
the point is that medicine has advanced since 1918. i wasn't trying to be specific to any viral medicine.
so point #1 is that medicine has advanced, point #2 is that conditions are different and point #3 is that we've heard this shit before.
which is exactly what you said. so what did you get out of your comment that was "left to be desired" by mine? i dunno.