Either way, a split of the Progressive Conservatives is pre-programmed.
Similarly, the Liberal Party will have a lot of bruised egos to salve come Sunday morning. By all accounts, a victorious Michael Ignatieff would have the biggest potential of splitting the party.
To many (if not most) Liberal party members and supporters, Ignatieff is a tad too right-wing or radical for their taste. Additionally, a Liberal Party led by Ignatieff would most certainly increase votes for the New Democratic Party (NDP), because the traditional swing voter who keeps alternating between Liberals and NDP from one election to the next would not be able to stomach Ignatieff.
I am actually prepared to predict that the NDP would see a drastic increase in its seat count with Ignatieff at the helm of the Liberal Party. Conversely, a Liberal Party under the leadership of Bob Rae or Gerard Kennedy could wipe out the NDP.
Many delegates, it is said, will choose a leader based on electability, i.e., his chance of beating Stephen Harper in the next election. At this point, the issue of electability has become a purely academic one, because Harper has done himself so much damage that a re-election is no longer in the cards for him. In other words, the Liberals will almost certainly win the next election no matter who their leader is.
Naturally, once this happens, the Liberals will gather around their new leader and then-prime minister, but the wounds and rifts inflicted during this long leadership campaign won’t just go away.
In order to prevent a major split, Liberal delegates would be well-advised to choose a leader with the best chances of uniting the party. Or, to put it somewhat more pessimistically, the one candidate who offends the smallest number of party members and voters across Canada.
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