It is becoming increasingly obvious that the President of these United States is swiftly adopting a more aggressive stand on international security and defense issues. Prior to the recent controversial Nuclear Arms Non-proliferation Conference the President unveiled a new policy principle, that “the United States would not use its nuclear arsenal against non-nuclear states that abided by the nuclear non-proliferation treaty." We note that a nation which for one reason or another chooses to disregard that non-proliferation treaty might have cause to feel threatened.
In late March, two months ago, 47 world leaders participated in a two-day nuclear security summit in Washington. And now, in early May, 2010, many of the same world leaders are attending a month long debate at the United Nations on how to stop the spread of nuclear weapons.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was in the midst of explaining Iranian views on these important matters when the U.S. delegation, joined by several European delegations, including the French and British, walked out of the conference. At that point, Ahmadinejad was reiterating his position that The West has no credible proof that Iran is seeking nuclear weapons. Clearly those who “walked out” will still have access to Ahmadinejad’s words and positions, but this walkout seems a faux pas of negotiations. America still seems resolved only to “communicate” with those who agree with her. Does not the walkout send a “bad message”?
The G.W. Bush administration was staunchly supportive of a course that had been used in the past; the course of non- negotiation with terrorists. Bush felt negotiating “gave them credibility ... enhanced their stature on the world stage." Obama had seemed to reverse that lack of communication. Apparently the new thinking has abruptly ended.
Recall that In March of 2007, Ahmadinejad had planned to address a session at the United Nations. At that time Iranian rhetoric was less combative. But curiously the Iranian Visas from the United States were slow in coming, and that appearance by the Iranian President never came to fruition.
Iran in recent months has been stating that relations between that nation and the United States “might never heal,” owing to new sanctions imposed by the U.S. and her allies against Iran. Iran takes the position that the United Nations Atomic Agency has no authority to "poke its nose" into matters like missiles. Ahmadinejad maintains that despite contested elections last year, Iran is not “a republic of fear.”
Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - Ruvy
Well, boys and girls, we've been treated to another John Lake "special" [Personal attack deleted by Comments Editor]
Let's start with point 1. "He has been guilty only of vile rhetoric; he has yet to attack Israel, or any of Iran’s neighbors."
Iran has been intimidating its neighbors for years, both under the shah and under these theocratic bastards. But, hey, I don't give a damn about Persia's immediate neighbors. In 2006, Iranian soldiers were captured by Israeli soldiers along with HizbAllah forces that we had to fight in Lebanon. Ahmadinejad, and the evil bastards he represents, have attacked us once already. So, his oft-repeated threat to "wipe Israel off the map" is not an empty bag of wind. Mahmoud Ahmdinejad has been lucid, open - and most ready to go to war.
Point 2. Ahmadinejad resents Americans "poking their nose" into Iranian affairs - but the most noxious "Iranian affair" that deserved the long, arrogant American nose being poked into it was not. Curiously, it is illustrated by our self-proclaimed expert, John Lake. On page 1 of this article we see demonstrators in Iran protesting the stolen elections that Ahmadinejad rigged last year.
Ahmadinejad has been as open, honest and clear as Hitler was about his intentions - if you look at their totality and the totality of his actions. He has rebuilt the Persian Empire, gotten help from Pakistan to develop an atomic weapons force, and is determined to destroy Israel - so that he can present the next caesar of the world - the Shi'a Mahdi - from the Temple Mount in Jerusalem.
I don't waste my time on useful idiots like Obama who will merely do what the G-d of Israel has set out for him to do. I don't waste my time on the sycophants and pigs from Europe who think they have power and importance - but are nothing but old stale farts from a previous century. But, since I live in the Middle East, and know whereof I speak - my life is on the line when I do - I know about the evil stink of shit and genocide emanating out of Persia.
John, write what you know about. Tell us about the Windy City, that toddlin town, that land of scarred furniture salesmen, businessmen who only deliver the goods their customers want and kick mayors down the stairs of city halls, that land of thieves and liars with the governor in jail - the city that Billy Sunday could not shut down.
[Personal attack deleted by Comments Editor]
2 - John Lake
"I don't waste my time on useful idiots like Obama who will merely do what the G-d of Israel has set out for him to do. I don't waste my time on the sycophants and pigs from Europe who think they have power and importance - but are nothing but old stale farts from a previous century. But, since I live in the Middle East, and know whereof I speak - my life is on the line when I do - I know about the evil stink of shit and genocide emanating out of Persia."
I certainly agree that Ruvy has every right to his bombastic opinions, and I will maintain the lines of communication. And I believe too, we in America can learn from the residents of the nations we discuss.
3 - Deano
Well you lost me at "lucid, open, and diplomatic"....
4 - Super Analyst
Well, there is no possibility to sanction Iran with or without the help of Russians/Chinese. I think USA wants to blame its failure on Iran policy on others through such accusations. The truth is China and Russian do not hold much sway over Iran at all.The problem is, USA can not stop Iran's nuclear program just by bombing it from the air as has been indicated by department of defense. The reason for that is Iran is not Iraq or for that matter a back ward country. It worked with Iraq because Iraqis did not have an industrial base and scientists capable of indigenous scientific research. When Israel bombed Iraqi reactor, basically French pulled out of Iraq and that is why it was successful. Iraq could not build even a screw and had to import even assault rifles, so any thing bombed out as long as Iraq could not buy a replacement for it in international markets, was considered gone forever.
The problem with Iran is that they have a large population that is young and educated. Infact Iran's population is twice that of Iraq and Afghanistan combined, just as their land is twice as big as Iraq and Afghanistan combined. You can not bomb every thing in Iran since we do not know their exact locations as intel is bad from Iran. Also Iran has a large pool of engineers and scientists constantly at work. Actually Iran has the world's fastest growth rate in science and technology. That alone provides Iran with redundancy and multiple backup options for every kind of attack and sanctions. There are basically two different sanctions that work. Sanctions that prohibit a country's access to minerals, raw material and energy which is basically meaningless for Iran since Iran is one of the 10 most minerally rich and energy rich country of the world. They can live for centuries without any access to world markets. The other sanction prohibits a nation's access to technological products. Again Iran with its massive investment in education for the past 3 decades has already reached a self sustaining science and technology generation level that would make it possible for Iranian leaders to counter sanctions in long turn. Any product which is not made in Iran can be sanctioned for a few months or even for a couple of years but Iran has reached the technological level to research or reverse engineer the sanctioned product within months to a year max. And they are smart too. For example with gasoline sanctions which have not even yet taken effect, Iran has started an ambitious research and development program into refining technologies all the while converting its car fleets to CNG instead of gasoline. That has made Iran to have the world's fastest growing market for NGV's.
All this leaves USA only with one option and that is invading Iran. But with current state of affair in US military and economic affairs and the failure of US military in Afghanistan and Iraq, things do not look that great on that front either. Iran is much larger and much more scientifically superior than those countries. Their level of capabilities and sphere of influence across the middle east as well as among all the Shia's in the world make their power projection much broader than what US military is designed to cope with. Furthermore, any attack on Iran will mean massive damage to oil infra structure of Persian Gulf states since Iran has access to tens of thousands of ballistic missiles ready to go something Iraq or Afghanistan never had. In the aftermath of destruction of oil fields and facilities such as the vulnerable LNG facilities of Qatar, the energy prices will shoot up to perhaps unthinkable level of thousand dollar a barrel. Iranian mullahs know that their fate is not going to better than Saddam if Tehran falls so they would not go down alone, they would take with themselves half of the world's oil and gas fields. With current economic crisis and unpopularity of war in western countries, this would mean riots on streets of Europe and USA causing a threat to the current political order in the west. Still, there are other consequences, right now American military presence in Iraq or Afghanistan has alienated only the Sunni's and Shia's who are even more dedicated to their cause have kept peaceful. With attack on Iran the only Shia country in the world which is regarded by all Shia's as their center, something like what Israel is for Jews, Shia's all over the world will become radicalized against western countries. Also not to forget that Afghanistan is producing 93% of the world's illicit drugs amounting to more than 100 billion dollars according to UN, most of these drugs would end up in Turkey and eventually Europe in such huge quantities that is enough to keep all Europeans on the dope. Right now it is not happening because there is an effective government in Iran which is stopping the shipments. Infact UN has applauded Iran on its drug interdiction programs, as Iranian police captures more opium and heroine in the world than the rest of the world combined. After Iranian invasion and since USA does not have enough troops to pacify Iranian resistance which is going to be even bigger than any USA has ever seen since Iranians are highly nationalist people, will make an invasion a failure too. Even if USA opts to nuke Iran out right, at the end USA will lose, since Iran will definitely become nuclear after that, not only Iran but all nations in the world will get the wrong lesson that they should go nuclear too because the use of nukes would be a shock for international politics and all governments will start feeling insecure. Imagine what kind of that is going to be. After that USA is going to become highly un-popular and besides USA can not fight the whole world's wish if they want to become nuclear.
So what is the solution: only one solution USA has. Come to term with Iran. The more late USA does it, they are going to pay a higher price. If USA had come to some agreement with Iran in 2003, it had to pay a much lower price to Iranians than today. And a few years later the Iranian price might go so up that even USA might not be able to afford it. As the price of Iranians is going up exponentially. And by price I do not mean aid or foreign investment or trade. Iranians are not interested in that. They are highly nationalist and proud people who believe that they are special. By price I mean the sphere of influence, they want their own little empire. While in 2003, Iran might have been happy to have as its satellites just Syria and Lebanon, today that has widened to include Iraq and Persian Gulf. USA should accept it right now and cut its losses and stopping Iranian ambitions. Tomorrow Iran will demand much higher a price which might even include the whole of middle east and central Asia. Obama should not make the mistake of trying to belittle Iranians and containing them without direct negotiations since Iranians are going to get very humiliate and will redouble their efforts to push the boundaries of their empire. Iran's trick in success has not been its fanaticism but its huge investment in science and technology couple with a solid unique national religious identity which is attracting huge masses of Muslims as well disaffected anti-corporation westerners. Such kind of determined people and their leaders can not be stopped by empty threats and even invasions. Quite simply Iranians have played a very smart game, they have made any American " options on the table" so expensive that they know USA will never use those options as it would mean the end of USA as we know it today. Obama should stop arming anti-Iran groups like Jundalla and support the meaningless and now dead green movement which had been born on life support machine and would have never succeeded like the other color revolutions as Iran on the contrary has a solid plan and global ambitions unlike Georgia or countries like Georgia. The reason why Obama should not do it is because it will make any negotiation with Iran all more difficult. Obama should instead invite Ahmadinejad to a neutral third country for example Switzerland and hold direct discussions with him with followup discussions in Tehran and Washington, much the same way USA did with communist China. USA should not allow its long term survival and security be affected by Israel. That would be a mistake if USA put Israel before America. And Israelis should know that being a small country they are no match for Iran and they should put USA before themselves since with USA they are nothing. That is the reality. Their situation is pretty much that of Taiwan.
5 - Ruvy
Israelis should know that being a small country they are no match for Iran and they should put USA before themselves since with USA they are nothing. That is the reality. Their situation is pretty much that of Taiwan.
You may call yourself a "super-analyst", but your analysis ain't that super. Taiwan is not sitting on a clutch of nukes with a submarine force to deliver them. And the bottom line is that with the USA, we are nothing - so there is no gain to aligning ourselves with a huge loser that is going to fall like a giant timber.
THAT IS REALITY.
Better for us to go it alone and tell the American government, and all the fools who may support it, to go to hell. And finally, to incinerate Ahmadinejad, the mullahs who pull his leash, and the "holy city" they sit in, Qom. And to get rid of the command and control systems in Iran with whatever weapons we need to.
The world will condemn us and hate us - but they condemn us and hate us anyway - so the hell with what they think. We in Israel have to put the Will of G-d and the fate of the Children of Israel before any goyisher shit with the arrogance to tell us what or what not to do.
If our leaders do not do this, then Iran will attack us - and these leaders will fall - and leaders who do what I prescribed in the above paragraph will take their place.
I may not even live to see it, the attack on this nation will be so fierce - but if we are attacked, the traitorous government here WILL FALL. And true patriots and leaders will take their place.
6 - Super Analyst
In the end of my above comment I meant "And Israelis should know that being a small country they are no match for Iran and they should put USA before themselves since without USA they are nothing" Mistakenly I had dropped the word "Not". Sorry for that.
7 - Super Analyst
Again sorry for that, since I am busy here. It was not the word not but "out". Sorry again. ;)
8 - Super Analyst
@ Ruvy;
By the way, after reading your comments, I can say you are no less fanatic than mullahs of Iran. Ofcourse Israel is the only country in the world whose existence is based not on international law and regulations but on bible. That is quite something because in future all other countries might want to integrate their religious scripture into international law forexample hindus, bhudists, muslims etc. Anyways since Israel is basically a religious country it is understandable that it is going to be hurt by any negotiation between Iran and USA.
9 - Super Analyst
@ Ruvy;
Actually Taiwan chose not to go nuclear despite the fact that they are pretty much advanced in technology in return for USA guaranteeing their existence. Israel could do the same. Give up its nukes for a nuke free middle east in return for American guarantees.
10 - Ruvy
Israelis should know that being a small country they are no match for Iran and they should put USA before themselves since with USA they are nothing. That is the reality. Their situation is pretty much that of Taiwan.
Israel could do the same. Give up its nukes for a nuke free middle east in return for American guarantees.
The Taiwanese have my sympathy. They will be betrayed by the Americans, just as were the South Vietnamese, the Georgians and a whole pack of other nations - including the Kurds, the Shi'a in southern Iraq - and the Israelis, who are getting the shiv now. With the Americans, the betrayals are like the murders of Macheath - Mack the Knife - "the line forms to the right, dear".
11 - Dr Dreadful
Hmm...
It seems the Iranians have taken a leaf out of China's political blog how-to book.
They're better at it, too.
12 - Glenn Contrarian
To all -
We're not going to stop Iran from getting nukes - that's a fact. America won't stop them, and neither can Israel or any other country (short of outright invasion which is NOT on the table).
So in the end, that's our choice: either invade...or deal with them as if they were any other modern country. And you know what? Iran's not going to nuke Israel, because they know Israel would do the same to them. It can rightly be said that Iran (and the rest of the Arab world) and Israel are soon to have a choice - either annihilate each other...or learn to get along with a modern version of MAD - "Mutual Assured Destruction" - which more than anything else kept America and the Soviet Union from starting WWIII.
So Ruvy - if Israel attacks, it will be destroyed. Maybe not right away, but the destruction would come as surely as sunrise and sunset - a billion or so enraged Muslims (Shi'a and Sunni united) would make sure of it.
What YOU need to do is agitate for ever-closer business ties. Make them NEED Israel, and they'll be far less likely to go to war against you.
The idea, Ruvy, is not to conquer and defeat...but to survive. You can fight a billion people...or you can learn to live with them. Mighty trees don't always survive a typhoon. Grass which bends whichever way the wind blows...almost always survives the typhoon.
There is a time for war, and a time for peace. I think Sun Tzu would strongly agree that military belligerence by Israel would be ill-advised. Make the Muslims need you - THAT is the key to Israel's survival as a nation.
13 - Dr Dreadful
So Ruvy - if Israel attacks, it will be destroyed. Maybe not right away, but the destruction would come as surely as sunrise and sunset - a billion or so enraged Muslims (Shi'a and Sunni united) would make sure of it.
Glenn, the Islamic world isn't a homogenous, single-minded mass. Even were Mecca and Medina destroyed, it's just about impossible to get a billion people to agree on anything.
You'd probably sooner see a few Muslim countries at war with each other over which of them was now the spiritual center of the faith, than any of them attacking Israel.
14 - Ruvy
So Ruvy - if Israel attacks, it will be destroyed. Maybe not right away, but the destruction would come as surely as sunrise and sunset - a billion or so enraged Muslims (Shi'a and Sunni united) would make sure of it.
You really need to do your math - and you really do need to learn your geo-politics. If the Muslim world were so monolithically united, they would have destroyed us already. Secondly, if you add the Persians to the Arabs, you only get 20% of the Muslim world - about 300 million people. The combined Muslim populations of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are almost twice that much. And they don't give a rat's ass about Israel.
Look at it this way, Glenn. When David came at Goliat with a shepherd's crook and a slingshot, he went forward in faith of victory. That is how our soldiers fight - especially when they know it is for their lives. So we'll not be annihilated at the hands of the Arabs or the Persians.
Besides, go re-read my article on a path to peace for the Children of Abraham. If you are really paying attention, you may understand that the strategy to victory is a strategy not based on fighting.
15 - Super Analyst
@Ruvy;
Do you really believe if USA felt its own security and well being was in danger when Israel attacks Iran, then they would allow it to happen. As I remember some high ranking US officials including in US military had even said that they will shoot down Israelis missiles and aircrafts if they attempt to attack Iran, in a bid to protect Iran and there fore proving to Iran that they should not retaliate on oil fields and American oil companies in Persian Gulf. I do not think Israel can live without USA handouts and support. And surely Israelis government know that all to well. They can not move without first consulting with Americans. Also God forbid if a situation rises that brings the interests of Israel against that of USA, causing a war between USA and Israel, I do not think Israel would make it for more than a few hours. All that story about Goliath and David is good for bed time but Israel is nothing in comparison to US AIRFORCE and US MARINES. REMEMBER THAT TOO WELL. IF IT COMES TO THAT USA CAN TAKE OVER ISRAEL IN MATTER OF HOURS. And surely after that they would change the way things are running there. Perhaps even if Isrealis are not cooperative after invasion then they will make it Palestine again the way it was before second world war.
16 - Super Analyst
@Ruvy;
One thing more, never ever again threaten United States of America. Do not even dare to do it again. You are nothing compared with USA.
17 - STM
There you go, Ruve don't threaten Sup[er Analyst's adopted country.
Now, as for Ahmadenijad being lucid, open and honest, then he must have had a brain transplant.
Not sure they were able to find one though.
The US should be ever so wary of Iran at the moment. Even Iran's own people are wary of the rule of the mullahs, which says everything really.
18 - El Bicho
"I don't waste my time on useful idiots like Obama"
Your previous comments contradict you
19 - Al Barger
Brother Ruvy, may God bless and preserve you and yours amid the wicked malice of your neighbors and [Personal attack deleted by Comments Editor] Western "progressives" like Mr. Lake. Perhaps I'm wrong, and underestimate the human capacity for self-delusion, but I find it near impossible to believe that even a self-deluded American liberal could truly and in good faith say that they believe even what this guy says in just the TITLE of this article, let alone the substance.
I for one am glad that Israel has nuclear weapons, and thus does not ultimately depend on the patronage of American politicians for ultimate defense.
20 - Mark Schannon
This article is satire, right? I mean, aren't you supposed to put "satire" in the title so people don't get all riled up?
Achminijihad as calm, rational & sane is great satire. Very funny.
Super Analyst, however, is not satire. He's scary, Ruvy, so beware.
...never ever again threaten United States of America. Do not even dare to do it again. WTF? I don't know who you are, Mr. Self-Styled Super Analyst, which is about as obnoxious and self-masturbatory a name as I can imagine...but I'm born & bred American Y I'll threaten the good old US of A any damn time I want.
Hey, America, stop acting like a bunch of high school drop out hicks who think their brains are contained in the bullets in their guns. And while you're at it, stop the Health Insurance Company death squads from deciding who's to live or die. So there.
Otherwise, great satire.
In Jameson Veritas
21 - El Bicho
Gadzooks, Shark last week and now Barger returning to the fold. Who's next week's guest star? MacDiva?
22 - Ruvy
Super Analyst, ...never ever again threaten United States of America. Do not even dare to do it again....
Whattya gonna do if I threaten the United States, kid? You gonna call out the Marines? Man, you have me shaking in my boots. Oooooohhhh shiver!!!!!! [wait a minute, let me gets some boots on first - you gotta have 'em on before you can shiver; it's a rule]. Oooooohhhh shiver!!!!!!
[Personal attack deleted by Comments Editor] The United States is going to collapse on its own worthless currency, its own worthless word, and its own worthless morals. It's just a matter of time. If, before then, some dumbass dickhead of a leader of the Americans gets the idea to invade us (yes, it has been broached in a number of circles), what will happen is that bodybags of dead American kids will go from Shiloh in Samaria, to Shiloh in Virginia, from Hebron in Judea, to Hebron in Connecticut. Speaking for myself (and probably just about every Israeli with a pair of balls), I'd much rather shoot and kill an American than a fellow Jew. So, go ahead. Make my day.
I haven't had so much fun writing a comment in a long time....
[Personal attack deleted by Comments Editor]
23 - robert langdonzzzzzzzzzzzz
el bicho: "Your previous comments contradict you"
you’d think that would be true, but like most silly americans, you’re reading ruvy’s writings as if they were written to be read in english. the reality of the matter is that ruvy writes in what we ruvologists like to call the “ruvy code.” each of his messages, when one knows how to translate them (all one really has to do is look, but sometimes it's best to look upside down, which can be a real pain in the neck), forms a tantalizing piece of the larger puzzle. Ordering these pieces correctly is the most difficult part, but we here at R.U.V.Y. (ruvy) have been hard at work, tracking, translating and analyzing his comments for years.
it took us a while to figure out that he actually works on different “puzzles” (linear sets of codes) at a time, maybe 3 every month or so. the secret to discovering what goes where is hidden in his subject matter. every 4-6 weeks, ruvy has about 3 different thoughts, and he repeats them consistently. by noting which "thought" ruvy appears to be repeating, we can figure out which “puzzle” the comment’s “piece” belongs to. They do not follow a linear time line, but clues at the beginning and end of each help us to decide where they belong, although some are more easy than others, depending upon if the completed puzzle is a personal musing or a quote of some sort.
for example, ruvy’s “obama is a jew-hating shit smear” thought (labeled T#30035), one of his long-running current topics, is (and we have definite proof of this) currently writing out the lyrics to rod stewart’s “first cut is the deepest” (P/fk.rs.). it appears that he is actually writing out the complete backing vocals for three singers as well. he seems to bring up rod stewart songs in times of confusion and/or hopeless doubt as to the veracity of his online horoscope. his predictions have been notoriously off recently, at least since the swine flu epidemic didn’t pan out, and we theorize that he split from his usual horoscope site and has yet to find a new one.
--robert langdonzzzzzzzzzzzz, head ruvologist, R.U.V.Y. (ruvy)
24 - roger nowosielski
But what if "Super Analyst" has considerable influence over US foreign policy?
Something to consider before you inherit his wrath.
25 - roger nowosielski
Welcome to R.U.V.Y. land.