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Peavy Dealing Again

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Jake Peavy is interested in leaving San Diego, and the Padres are more than willing to move him. They aren't really going anywhere in a hurry, and they know it's wise for them to move their best player at a high value so they can get chips for rebuilding.

There's only one problem: Peavy has a full no-trade clause in his contract with the Padres, so he has to approve any trade that comes his way. Granted, I don't know Peavy to be a prick, so he isn't going to sit there and be ornery about exactly what team he goes to if the Padres are going to get a great return for him.

That being said, Peavy has only cleared five teams at the moment as teams he would definitely be willing to accept a trade from: the Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals, or Houston Astros.

So what are the odds Peavy gets his wish? I'm going to go with "not good" at the moment. Or, rather, it is unlikely that both Peavy and the Padres will get what they want. Lets look at the teams Peavy apparently has his eye on:

Dodgers: This one makes the most sense. For one, Peavy would get to stay on the West Coast. He also would get to stay in the NL West and play the bulk of his games against the teams he is most familiar with. Plus, he winds up in the one home ballpark that is as hitter-friendly as the one he currently calls home. On top of that, the Dodgers have a bunch of talent to give up and a less than amazing GM. THen again, the genius of Ned Colletti is a double-edged sword.

Braves: Outside the honor of playing for Bobby Cox, I'm not sure I see the benefit here. Acquiring Peavy improves the Braves' rotation from "a bunch of nobodies" to "Peavy and a bunch of nobodies," which is certainly not enough to leapfrog back to the top of the NL East. The trade doesn't really benefit Atlanta unless they get more than Peavy, and I don't think they have enough pieces to make that size trade work.

Cubs: As much as it might be nice to add Peavy to their rotation, I'm not sure the Cubs can afford to add him without cutting into the money they would need to keep Ryan Dempster from signing somewhere else. It's also iffy for Chicago as to whether they have enough talent to send back for the trade to be worth San Diego's time.

Cardinals: This came up whenever the Cards were briefly mentioned as suitors for Jason Bay near the trade deadline: they don't have any prospects worth talking about beyond Colby Rasmus, and they have more problems than they can solve by acquiring Peavy. This is likely a dead end.

Astros: This one blows my mind. Ed Wade turned some heads this season. Sure, his team made some progress, but he traded away what little young talent the team had to acquire mediocre players like LaTroy Hawkins and Randy Wolf. There is no way they can afford Peavy, nor would acquiring him solve anything.

So of the teams that Peavy has OK-ed thus far, only one really makes any sense. As far as the rest of the league is concerned, there are very few teams that have the prospects and/or payroll to take on Peavy. It's the same story – if you're talking about trading a superstar player, the only teams who can truly compete for him are both Los Angeles teams, the Yankees, the Red Sox… and maybe a team like Tampa, if they're willing to sacrifice some young talent and let their payroll shoot up a bit.

I think you may need to keep dreaming, Jake Peavy. Most teams can't afford you, especially the ones you want to play for. How about those Chargers?

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About Geeves the Butler

  • I strongly disagree with one part of your piece here, Sir Geeves. The Atlanta Braves do have a load of young talent in their farm system, and they’ve indicated publicly for the first time in a millennium or so they might be willing to move some of it to upgrade their team.

    Before we get carried away, I agree the Braves are an unlikely landing spot. Even though Peavy is signed at a relatively affordable cost through 2013, I don’t think the Braves will pony up what Kevin Towers will be looking for.

    I also agree this isn’t the move that will put the Braves back into the thick of things, but Peavy as a number one to go up against the Santanas and Hamels of the world does make sense. The Braves aren’t quite the bunch of nobodies you suggest, but Peavy isn’t enough to vault them into contention. Atlanta would have to be willing to sign a little more offense to go with this acquisition to make up the ground.

    As for why he’d be interested in Atlanta at all, I wonder if him being from Mobile, AL has anything to do with it. It might not, but as a Southern kid he may have grown up a Braves fan and/or want to come back a little closer to “home.” Why he wants to go there matters a little less than the fact he’s said he’s willing to go.

    I don’t know where Peavy will move, or if he will, but I wouldn’t count the Braves completely out of the mix. Good article, though, Geeves. I agree with most of your analysis of the situation. It will be fun to watch.

  • nicolas

    well, really, the young talent is irrelevant in this discussion, josh.

    the point i’m trying to make is that Peavy is of a talent level and financial commitment that any smart GM isn;t going to pursue Peavy unless he genuinely believes that his team is “Jake Peavy” away from being a legitimate pennant threat.

    The Braves (not to mention the three NL Central teams or the Yankees) did not show me anything that would lead me to believe that they are “acquiring Jake Peavy” away from, as I said, jumping all the way back up the NL East ladder and into contention.

    Peavy isn’t looking to move from one bad team to another, and even if Atlanta WERE that close, they may have to give up a serious chunk of the young talent you mentioned to get him.

    The only teams I truly believe qualify as “acquiring Jake Peavy” away from contending (as they were constituted at the end of the regular season) are Milwaukee, the Mets, and perhaps the White Sox.

    But the White Sox have nothing to trade, Peavy may not be thrilled about New York City, and the Brewers will have a hard enough time retaining either of the big-name pitchers they already have.

  • Scott

    Up until the geriatric bodies of John Smoltz and Tom Glavine gave out, the Braves were right in the thick of the NL East. Even after losing them (as well as several top relievers) they hung in there until Tim Hudson’s arm blew out. At that point, they started sliding out of contention and began planning for next year. Don’t forget they were 11-6 against your “contending” Mets including a 4 game sweep.
    I’m not saying Jake Peavy is the guy the Braves need, but the Braves are an ace pitcher and an outfield bat away from contention with a deep farm system and and a bunch of money.
    Don’t count them out of this or any other pitching sweepstakes. They HAVE to land a top name pitcher this off-season.

  • Robert

    I think the Braves are the front runners. Peavy is a southern guy (from Alabama) who has told friends he would love to play for the Braves at some point in his career. The Braves have a group of young, potentially, very good players in their farm system. That’s what it is going to take to get this trade done. The Padres are looking to off load salary, and pick up young talent in return. The Braves get Peavy, sign Lowe, and a power bat in the O.F. and they would be contenders.