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Obama: It’s All In The Numbers

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For all the McCain election hype about closing the gap, aided by a new Wall Street Journal poll that shows Obama's lead shrinking from ten to eight points, 51% to 43%, and a Fox news poll with Obama ahead by seven points, 50% to 42%, there's no way to avoid the simple fact that the numbers are overwhelmingly in the Democrat's favor. 

On Pollster.com, one of the most respected polling sites which continually monitors and aggregates various polling organizations, their latest national polls have similar findings, with Obama's support ranging from 50% to 52% and McCain's from 44% to 46%. 

Issues that were of concern to Obama's campaign and provided a lift to McCain's no longer seem to be factors:  In today's Washington-Post/ABC News poll, which is consistent with other poll data:

  • More than half see Obama as sufficiently experienced;
  • He is now "widely viewed as a 'safe' pick" now tying McCain for that distinction.
  • Almost half of respondants report they are "less likely" to vote for McCain because of Sarah Palin, more evidence of her continuing drag on the Republican party.l
  • The biggest drag on McCain is that many see him as the next iteration of a Bush admistration; almost all who believe that support the Democrat.
  • Almost 60% think Obama is "about right" ideologically, demonstrating that the Republican effort to portray him as somehow different is not working.  Far fewer have the same view of McCain.

But the real battle is taking place in the states, and it is difficult to put together a winning formula for McCain.  CNN forecasts Obama with 291 electoral votes (210 safe, 81 leaning) and McCain with 157 (121 safe, 36 leaning.)  The Cook Political Report projects Obama with 286 electoral votes to McCain's 139, with 113 in the toss-up category.  Pollster.com is the most aggressive with Obama at 311 electoral votes (264 strong, 47 leaning) and McCain at 142 (129 strong, 13 leaning) and 85 as toss ups.

Regardless, how does McCain pull off a victory? 

First, CNN, reasonably conservative in its approach, lets one play with its electoral map, so let's give McCain all the undecided states:  FL, NC, OH, IN, MO, ND, and MT.  That brings him to 247, 23 votes short of the magic 270.  Note that Obama leads by a slim margin in all but two of those states.  Only Ohio, where Obama leads by five points, may lay outside the margin of error. 

Second, McCain is going to have to pick off Pennsylvania, which Pollster.com lists as strong Democratic.  He has certainly been targeting Pennsylania, but that's only 21 electoral votes.  More important, Pollster.com lists four polls on PA that ended November 2nd with a range of 6 to 14 percentage points in favor of Obama, and in all, his rating is over 50 percent. 

Third, if McCain does win PA, he then has to pick off another two votes.  Of the states that CNN calls leaning Democratic, it's an even higher climb.  The Obama advantage, according to Pollster.com's aggregate of polls is:

  • Nevada:  6.8 percent
  • Colorado:  7 percent
  • New Mexico:  8.5 percent
  • Virginia:  6 percent
  • New Hampshire:  12 percent

Fourth, McCain's success is dependent on Obama not winning any of the swing states and losing at least two Democratic states. 

Cook is known for being non partisan, and his analysis on October 31st has to be sobering for the Republicans.  "Since early September this race has shifted rather dramatically in Obama's favor. As long as the focus is almost exclusively on the economy, this race is almost unwinnable for McCain."

"At this point, John McCain probably can't win without divine intervention," writes Cook.

The numbers don't lie.  Absent a deus ex machina, our next president will be Barack Obama.


In Jameson Veritas

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About Mark Schannon

Retired crisis & risk manager/communications expert; extensive public relations experience in most areas over 30 years. Still available for extraordinary opportunities of mind-numbing complexity. Life-long liberal agnostic...or is that agnostic liberal.
  • Obama may very well win. But if he does, I hope fair-minded libs will be open-minded when conservative journalists conduct post-election investigations into the ACORN vote fraud and Obama’s illegal campaign contributions, including donations from foreigners.

  • I just hope that when Obama wins he doesn’t resort to military force to impose his plans when there are mass protests and attempts at secession.


  • zingzing

    oh, dave… seriously? you’re losing it…

  • Lee Richards

    What, Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld/Rice/McCain/Palin can use military force to impose their plans but Obama can’t(even in a Nalle imaginary alternate universe scenario)?

    Dave is now in the “I’m taking all my toys and going home” mode.

  • Oy, RJ & Dave, you’re not taking your meds. Baaaad boys.

    RJ, read the newspapers, not the McCain campaign releases. The fraud was perpetrated against ACORN & they dutifully reported all irregularities to the state authorities. That’s how the story broke.

    Dave…you’re kidding right??? Right???

    Both you guys, remember,

    In Jameson Veritas

  • zingzing

    dave–just take texas and all of the midwest south of minnesota and west of chicago with you, k? wait–iowa’s ok, right? bah, fuck iowa. take it.

  • Joe

    zingzing –

    Deal. But you gotta take California. And pay the shipping.

  • zingzing

    we ain’t gonna move it nowhere! you’ll be surrounded on three sides! death! death! where ya gonna go?! there’s a few holes towards canada! canada! land of socialism-nipples! and then to mexico! south! south! let us run south! oh shit! venezuela! hatred hatred! north! oh fuck!

    oh, i am in a good mood tonight.

  • Cindy D


    If Obama wins and there is secession, of the right. I think we’ll let you go. I would vote for the secession. It would be an answer to a prayer (if I prayed).

    You can all live together, one big happy low tax family of raging deficits. Chuckling at parties over who got the biggest loopholes. Driving up the prices of some your basic resources and destroying the rest of them.

    I hope you can live with the school prayer Dave.

  • Cindy D

    P.S. I’d rather have the welfare cheats.

  • Cindy D

    RJ failed to notice that nearly all the conservative journalists have endorsements out for Obama.

  • Clavos

    RJ failed to notice that nearly all the conservative journalists have endorsements out for Obama.

    Got a citation for that, Cindy?

    In the absence of an actual citation (preferred) name them; I’ll start you off:

    Peggy Noonan – washed up speech writer.

    The Buckley kid – Who is no William F.

  • Cindy D

    Citation coming up Clav.

  • Cindy D

    MONDAY Tally Of Newspaper Endorsements — Obama In Landslide, at 273-142

    Damn you Clav! Keeping me honest every single step. I can’t get away with a whiff of exaggeration!

    Okay, I (hangs head) hereby modify my claim to say: RJ failed to notice that many of the conservative journalists have endorsements out for Obama.

    Can’t have fun anywhere these days! grumble…

  • Cindy D


    There are many conservative newspapers which have endorsed Obama when they have never endorsed a Democrat ever!

  • Cindy D

    That in itself is amazing. Have a look at how many different newspapers which never edorsed a Democrat before, are endorsing Obama.

  • Clavos

    It’s a long list of newspapers, Cindy, but your original point was about conservative journalists (not journals) endorsing BHO.

    As I said, a long list of papers, but you’re mixing apples and oranges; these are not “conservative journalists.”

    Just sayin’

  • zingzing

    yes, and mccain is not going to l-o-s-e, obama is going to w-i-n.

    get used to it, clavos! may your taxes never soar!

    oh, sour face, sour face, i didn’t say that.

  • Cindy D

    You are right Clav. editorial boards of newspapers are not journalists.

    I stand corrected.

  • Cindy D

    But i can still make fun of Dave’s electoral map! (There is always a silver lining!)

  • I don’t know what zing2 is smoking tonight, but I want some.

  • zingzing

    i ain’t been smoking nothing but high expectations!

    although there is a little hash on the counter. and i haven’t smoked in months…

  • Clavos

    didn’t say bho wasn’t going to win, zing. was discussing a totally different point.

    but yew no that.

    i’m resigned to the seeming inevitable, zing. not happy about it, but realistic.

    and hunkering down, because i do expect the country (and especially the economy) to head south next year even faster than it is now.

  • What, Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld/Rice/McCain/Palin can use military force to impose their plans but Obama can’t(even in a Nalle imaginary alternate universe scenario)?

    No, Lee. None of them should ever use military force against the American people. But I don’t see it happening if McCain gets elected and I don’t see how Obama will be able to implement the entire left agenda without it if he wins.


  • Arch Conservative

    Like it or not Eight Ball Barry is going to win tomorrow Dave. It just goes to show you that you should never underestimate the power of morons in large numbers.

    Who knows what will happen in the next four years. Shit happens right? I think you get what I’m getting at Dave.

  • What Dave doesn’t know is that Heloise and the vast, vast esoteric Islamic (peaceful) movement has moved to Texas, lock, stock and turban. He has no idea what coming to Texas, nay already here. Dave will have to move to…let’s see what’s the whitest, most conservative country on earth? Hmmm, nothing comes to mind. Maybe Russia? Maybe nowhere. And guess what? I’ll tell you the same thing I told groovy Ruvy, you really have no idea what white, professional, very middle class white people, highly educated are up to here in America? You have no clue.

    Here’s a hint–they are leaving Judaeo-Christian mode (zealous ideology/wingnut) like sailors abandoning a sinking ship. And saying heave-ho to the Bible belt because it is way too tight!!!

    Obama may not be a Muslim, or into Islam but I am.
    Dave–it’s here–get over it.


  • zingzing

    sigh… polls will be closed this time tomorrow. remember that, folks. i mean, “my friends.” “you betcha.” “i’ve got a hat and it ain’t like that, OLLLLDD ROTTEN-HEAD!!”

  • Arch Conservative

    Heloise [personal attack deleted]…you can’t “be into Islam” that much or you would know that muslims don’t wear turbans, sikhs do.

  • zingzing

    i mean hat. old rottenhat. i need my non-cocaine-filled glasses on. or my head straight. for fuck’s sake, i fucked up a quote no one will even get.

  • Arch Conservative

    That’s OK zingzing..you should just do what Eight Ball Barry does when he needs a tune-up. Just have one of your lackies hit the streets to find the “good stuff” for you.

    [Personal attack deleted. Arch, I do have more patience than Chris, but I am not going to put up with trash like that. Final warning.

    Dr D]

  • Heloise, it sounds like you’re lagging a bit behind the times. I already left the judeo-christian paradigm behind long ago.

    But don’t worry. In the new (smaller) America there will be tolerance for all faithist delusions.


  • Arch Conservative

    “But I don’t see it happening if McCain gets elected and I don’t see how Obama will be able to implement the entire left agenda without it if he wins.”

    An Obama presidency could be the catalyst for a new civil war Dave.

  • zingzing

    thanks archie! i’ll find me a lackie, always wanted one of those…

    “hey, lackie!”
    “get me some of that good stuff…”
    “oh alright, boss. *snap* *snap* some of that good stuff… yeah!”
    “damn straight, lackie! and make sure it’s some of that “good” good stuff.”
    “yeah, man!”

    *snap* *snap*

    *knock, knock*
    “that you, lackie?”
    “oh, yeah!”
    “oh, yeah!”
    “uh! good god!”
    “ok, lackie, what ya got?”
    “boss, i got some of the best they had!”
    “and how good is it?”
    “boss, this is the shit you crust off the shit that crusts offa angel’s bottoms!”
    “oh, shit!”
    “yeah! shit!”
    “shit… this is the shit.”
    “you know your shit!”
    “shit, yeah, i know my shit! shit.”
    “i know, i know. you’re shit is more known by you than shit is taken by all.”
    “oh, stop it you big girl!”

  • Clavos

    Very good, zing!


  • I just listened to an interview that I agree with: when Obama wins BIG…it will bring out the bigot in all God’s children, white boys, black boys, little white girls and little black girls will all hold pens and write their bigoty lines and talk their bigoty talk to each other–with no holds baaaaaaaaarrrrrred.

    Translation: racists and bigots will have their day and their fill of calling black folks names and using cutesy metaphors.

    Free at last, free at last, thank God almighty bigots will be free at last. As I said about my epiphany in Germany..if it makes you feel good…do it!


  • I didn’t say that, Arch. Still at least 6 months before thinking it is a crime.


  • Franco

    2 hours ago

    State board clears Palin in ‘Troopergate’ probe

    RJ, will this play any part in your predictions?

  • Jonathan Scanlan

    “Troopergate”? *sigh*

    Why does every controvercy have to end in -gate?

    Sooner or later there’ll be a maintenance problem at the whitehouse… and no editor will resist calling it the Whitehouse-Gate affair.

  • If Senator [insert name here] got caught in an airport restroom with an Australian tourist, would it be ‘Mategate’?


  • STM

    Mate, we’ve had a mategate here, believe it or not.

  • Do tell…!

  • Clavos
  • Jet

    Damn, I thought he took the night off!

  • STM

    It’s all here Doc … involving the conviction and acquittal of High Court Justice, QC (Queen’s Counsel, for you yank philistines) and former (elected) Australian Attorney-General Lionel Murphy following allegations by a former NSW Chief Magistrate of attempting to pervert the course of justice, and which involved the use of the term “my little mate”. There is a reasonable breakdown of it in this wiki entry.

    Sorry about the open link, mate, but I can’t find the details on how to fix it. I’m having a Barry Crocker of a day … one of my mates died overnight in very sad and unexpected circumstances.

    (Murphy eventually won a retrial and was acquitted.)

  • Cannonshop

    #33 Um, Zing? It’s “Lackey” in the singular and you can remind Arch that it’s “Lackeys” in the Plural, no “ies” involved. Lackeys, by the way, are like unto Henchmen, save that they are not professionals.

    The social structure being as followed (in descending order)

    Laboratory Helper/Executive Assistant
    Thug (Jackbooted)
    Thug (non-Jackbooted)
    Brute (non smelly)
    Brute (stinking or smelly)
    Sycophant (simple)

    Hirelings are outside the social order of henching, as their loyalty is entirely purchased and therefore fickle at best. Karl Rove, for instance, is a Hireling, as is James Carville and his wife Mary Matalin.

    a person CAN drop in the social order. for instance, Colin Powell was once a Henchman of the highest order (almost Personal assistant grade while working for GHWB), but he has declined to the bottom of the Henching social order while switching sides-he’s got to start all over again at “Sycophant”, with his endorsement of Barack Obama. Given the General’s historical career, he should be able to achieve at LEAST “Lackey” if not full-on “Henchman” within a year at the outside if he plays his (race)cards right.

    In our current political climate, not even the infamous Dick Cheney has achieved the coveted “laboratory Assistant” mantle-he’s not even a proper Henchman. At highest, he’s a mere Lackey (and an incompetent one at that), most likely, he is a Sycophant high-end, but doesn’t qualify for Brute or Thug due to his infirmities.

    Condi Rice is a high-end Henchman, but even SHE has failed to score “Laboratory/Personal Assistant”. this is mainly because GW doesn’t have the flair or imagination to be a proper madman… he lacks the spark, yew know.

  • “Final warning.”

    Promises, promises. How many of those does he get?

  • “Peggy Noonan / The Buckley kid ”

    Neither of these people are journalists. They are columnists, although Buckley might not even be that anymore since leaving NR.

  • Arch Conservative

    If it were revealed that Michelle Obama was actually born a man would it be Ru Paulegate?

    Dave….any thoughts against the fuhrer will be deemed criminal. He and his cohorts are just itching to reinstate the fascist doctrine and it will be all big brother from there on out. I just hope that the people that have been buying all these guns in the past few weeks actually know how to use them when the time comes to do so.

  • bliffle

    Dave shows that he’s finally lost it:

    “I just hope that when Obama wins he doesn’t resort to military force to impose his plans when there are mass protests and attempts at secession.”

    He’s gone around the bend.

  • Cannonshop,

    Did you used to work in a Federal office or something? What I see in your “order of angels” is awful familiar and reminds me of what I would see at the Treasury office where my wife used to work. It reminds me of the Israel Police, too, come to think of it.

    Brute (non-smelly) Volunteer Police Unit
    Jerusalem District

  • Cindy D

    awe shucks bliffle,

    i was hoping Dave was right about secession.

  • Lee, i thought so too, but I guess we’re mistaken. It’s one thing to wave about absurdities about Obama, the socialist, Muslim, anti-American, ultra-liberal, bigot spigot during a campaign. That’s…sigh…American politics.

    But anyone with the brain capacity of a gnat who’s taken the time to read anything about him will know that he’s actually a shrewd pol who’ll run a center to left-center administration. (Bill Kristol last night on Colbert said right-center!)

    Why have all you cons & neocons deserted your party elders–who’ve run to ol’ Jug Ears in mass?

    I’m beginning to think that my other post about the quality of discussion on BC politics might have been the most inane, naive, stupid thing I’ve ever written. Oh well, blame it on the brain cloud.

  • Lee Richards

    AC continues to debase conservatism. Funny that.