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New Movies and Box Office Predictions: Rush Hour 3, Stardust, Daddy Day Camp

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Last week saw the arrival of one of the best action films to hit the screen this year in The Bourne Ultimatum. This week attempts to match that with a big and loud buddy action/comedy. I believe it is safe to say that this summer has had the last of its expected big hits and anything else that comes along in the dog days will be a pleasant surprise. Of course, I have been known to be very wrong in my guesses. Still, I feel pretty confident. While that buddy movie will try to prove me wrong, a new family comedy and a new fantasy will be trying to do the same thing. I won't be helping myself any when I go to see as many of these as I can.

Daddy Day Camp. (2007, 93 minutes, PG, comedy, trailer) A few years back Eddie Murphy starred in the $100 million hit Daddy Day Care. That was 2003. The Dads are back, albeit with another face in the lead. Rather than bring back Eddie Murphy (for whatever reason), they have brought in Cuba Gooding Jr. Looking to fill the hole that is the summer break, the Dads decide to open up a camp. Much comedy ensues. I cannot say that it looks all that good. Also, it is interesting to note, this marks the big screen directorial debut of former child actor Fred Savage. He has been cutting his teeth on television for years now, and we can now see how well he translates to the big screen. Well, someone can. Maybe.

Rush Hour 3. (2007, 90 minutes, PG-13, action/comedy, trailer) The first Rush Hour movie brought us the new buddy cops played by Chris Tucker and Jackie Chan. It was a fish out of water story with Chan coming to LA to work a case. The sequel played the same formula but took Tucker and sent him to Hong Kong, flipping their character positions. This time out both of these cops will be in new surroundings. Chan and Tucker find themselves in Paris fighting bad guys. Will this offer anything new? I doubt it. Still, both of these performers have undeniable charisma. That charisma will have to be used to great effect to carry this outing. I cannot say that my expectations are high, but I am sure it will entertain.

Stardust. (2007, 128 minutes, PG-13, fantasy, trailer) Seeking to prove his love, young Tristan ventures forth to retrieve a fallen star for his love, Victoria. What he finds is a woman named Yvaine, who is also being sought by the four sons of a king, as well as a witch seeking eternal youth. Not sure how well it will play out, but it looks visually striking and is based on a Neil Gaiman novel, so it will at least be worth a shot. The cast is promising, including Ian McKellan, Claire Danes, Sienna Miller, Robert DeNiro, Peter O'Toole, and Ricky Gervais.

Becoming Jane. (2007, 120 minutes, PG, drama, trailer) This movie is said to cement Anne Hathaway's transition from Disney princess to a full-fledged mature actress. Not sure about that, Prada and Brokeback Mountain may have already done the trick. Anyway, this is the story of Jane Austen's untold romance with Tom Lefoy (James McAvoy). This isn't my usual cup of tea, but could definitely prove interesting.

El Cantante. (2007, 106 minutes, R, drama, trailer) This biopic chronicles the rise and fall of Hector Lavoe, a Puerto Rican singer who moved to New York and pioneered salsa music. Honestly, I have never heard of him, but then again, I am rather ignorant of salsa in general (the music or the dip). The movie stars real life couple Marc Anthony (as Hector) and Jennifer Lopez (as his wife Puchi).

Also opening this week, but not near me:

  • Skinwalkers
  • 2 Days in Paris
  • Chak DE! India
  • Cut Sleeve Boys
  • Dans Paris
  • Descent
  • Rocket Science

Box Office Predictions

Rush Hour 3 anyone? I am certain that it will be the top grosser this weekend. The question is how high will it fly? Will it top last week's The Bourne Ultimatum? I doubt it. In 1998 Rush Hour opened with $33 million, the sequel followed in 2001 with a $67.5 million opening. I really don't see this one getting that high. Tucker hasn't made a movie since then, and this has to put a question mark on his drawing power. It will still do well, likely ending in the $50-55 million range. Reviews and word of mouth have been very positive, so I envision this having a good second weekend. Of the other new releases, Stardust should have a decent opening, but I do not expect much from Daddy Day Camp (especially with its 9th place finish on its opening day, failing to crack $.75 million).

Here is how I think the top ten field will play out:

Rank Title Box Office
1 Rush Hour 3 $55 million
2 The Bourne Ultimatum $33 million
3 Stardust $19 million
4 The Simpsons Movie $15 million
5 Underdog $8 million
6 I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry $6 million
7 Becoming Jane $5 million
8 Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix $4.5 million
9 Hairspray $3.5 million
10 El Cantante $3 million

What are you seeing this weekend?

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