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New Movies and Box Office Predictions: Next Day Air, Star Trek

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The blockbuster season is in full swing. Last weekend saw X-Men Origins: Wolverine arrive and proceed to blow up the box office to the tune of $85 million. Despite poor reviews and the leaked workprint, it still succeeded in doing great business. Will it have legs? We will see. This weekend sees the next of the big money hopefuls arrive, and a few years ago this would have been unthinkable. Anyway, it is here and I cannot wait. Is everyone ready to start diving through the big market releases hoping for offerings of quality?

Next Day Air. (2009, 87 minutes, R, comedy) I must admit that this looks like a trifle of a film that probably won't make much of an impact at the box office. Still, I am intrigued and just may have to check it out. The story centers on a pair of would-be criminals who accidentally come into possession of a large quantity of cocaine. Trouble begins when they try to sell the drugs. What follows is an action comedy that will have a lasting impact on a number of individuals who have crossed paths with the coke. I cannot say the plot sounds terribly original, but it could be fun, and I like a few of the cast members. Among the cast are Donald Faison, whose work I love on Scrubs, and Mos Def, who always turns in good performances. It is these two who are going to draw me to this one; hopefully it delivers some fun.

Star Trek. (2009, 128 minutes, PG-13, science fiction) Here is the big one — this is the one that I and many, many others have been waiting patiently (well, mostly patiently) for. I cannot tell you how excited I am for a new Star Trek film that is getting a ton of mainstream buzz. It has been awhile since you could call anything Trek buzzworthy. JJ Abrams (Alias, Lost, Mission Impossible III) is behind the camera for his second feature, and the trailer makes it look like he’s knocked it out of the park. I have been doing a good job avoiding spoilers, wanting my viewing this Saturday to be as fresh as possible. The cast looks good, with Chris Pine, Zachary Quinto, and Karl Urban stepping into roles made famous by William Shatner, Leonard Nimoy (who is in this film), and DeForrest Kelly. Looks like it will be a lot of fun!

Also opening this week, but not near me:

  • Adoration
  • Julia
  • Little Ashes
  • Love N Dancing
  • Outrage
  • Powder Blue
  • Rudo Y Cursi

Box Office Predictions

Last week we all knew that X-Men: Origins: Wolverine would take the top spot. Does anyone think it has the strength to take a second weekend? No, didn't think so. What is getting the top of the box hype is Star Trek. Hard to believe, isn't it? I cannot say that I ever imagined a day where a Star Trek film would have this much hype behind it. I cannot say I am disappointed. Wolverine will likelyu do all right, but still drop around 50% from its opening. The majority of the rest will just shift down.

Here is how I think it could play out:

Rank Title Box Office
1 Star Trek $78 million
2 X-Men Origins: Wolverine $43 million
3 Ghosts of Girlfriends Past $8 million
4 Next Day Air $7 million
5 Obsessed $5.5 million
6 Monsters vs. Aliens $3.75 million
7 Monsters vs Aliens $3.5 million
8 17 Again $3 million
9 earth $2.5 million
10 Hannah Montana: The Movie $1.5 million
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