Should Win: Chili Peppers
Should Win But Isn't Even Nominated: Dylan
Dark Horse: Mayer
Will Win: Justin Timberlake
Record Of The Year Nominees:
"Be Without You" (Mary J. Blige); "You're Beautiful" (James Blunt); "Not Ready To Make Nice" (Dixie Chicks); "Crazy" (Gnarls Barkley); and "Put Your Records On" (Corinne Bailey Rae)
Should Win: "Crazy"
Will Win: "Crazy"
Dark Horse: "Be Without You" or "You're Beautiful"
Best New Artist Nominees:
James Blunt; Chris Brown; Imogen Heap; Corinne Bailey Rae; Carrie Underwood.
Should Win: James Blunt
Will Win: Carrie Underwood
Song Of The Year Nominees:
"Be Without You" (performed by Mary J. Blige); "Jesus, Take The Wheel" (performed by Carrie Underwood); "Not Ready To Make Nice" (performed by the Dixie Chicks); "Put Your Records On" (performed by Corinne Bailey Rae); "You're Beautiful" (performed by James Blunt).
Should Win: "Not Ready To Make Nice"
Will Win: "Be Without You" (largely because "Crazy" didn't make this category).
Dark Horse: "You're Beautiful", "Jesus Take the Wheel" (tie)
As for elsewhere, look for these to win:
R&B Album: Mary J. Blige
Pop Album: John Mayer (unless Timberlake takes this one too).
Rock Album: Chili Peppers (though I'd love to see Neil Young get this for Living With War)
Rap Solo: Missy Elliott for "We Run This"
Rap/Sung Collaboration: Beyoncé featuring Jay-Z for "Deja Vu"
Best Producer: Rick Rubin. Between the Peppers and The Chicks, it's Rubin's year. Besides, in another life I actually briefly worked for him. Whaddup Rick?
Country Album: Dixie Chicks (unless a strong anti-Chicks vote gets Alan Jackson the award by default. Just for the record, Johnny Cash, yet another glaring non-nominee, would get my vote for the posthumous American V: A Hundred Highways)
Stay tuned for the Grammys on CBS February 11, 2006. And keep the glass items away from the TV.
Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - Connie Phillips
Thanks for following up with this, Glen.
I have to agree with you that the line between the AMAs and the Grammys is blurring. And what once honored the best, now seems to focus on hot and pop.
I hope you will be one who will come back on February 12 with a follow up. Remind us of your predictions and how close you were to naming what actually wins.
2 - Glen Boyd
Consider it a date Connie. And thanks for the comment.
-Glen
3 - DJRadiohead
Well done, Glen. I don't know how they manage to do it year after year but somehow these nominations always manage to piss me off. Mission, once again, accomplished. Justin Timberlake and The Chicks With Dicks - this is the best we have to offer. Riiiight. What rubbish.
4 - Glen Boyd
Thanx DJR. I was a little reluctant to run with this because I thought Tim had pretty much already nailed it with his piece. But I once I got started, it flew out of me. No freaking Dylan for Best Album? What Rubbish indeed. Thanx for the comment (and for pushing me to do this article) DJR. I'm pretty happy with the way it turned out actually.
-Glen
5 - Jon Sobel
The Grammys are a popularity contest with weak pretentions to meritocracy. I long since gave up being upset by who wins and loses or doesn't get nominated.
6 - Joey V
I agree with you completely about the Dylan record, it should have been nominated.
But I think you've overlooked something very obvious: To the vast majority of the American public the Grammys are a TV show - and that’s it nothing else. Now if the nominees for album of the year were Bob Dylan, Neil Young, and Springsteen can you really see those ad execs getting all giddy over selling their automobiles, potato chips and acne medication? I'm sure you're thinking "hey that would be great I'd watch" but unfortunately like me, you're in the wrong demographic for primetime TV targeted advertising. Maybe at one time the Grammys were a representation of artistic merit, but those days are long gone and I think that’s what really should be taken issue with, not who and who isn’t nominated.
7 - Glen Boyd
Points well taken Jon and Joey. But if this is the case, and if the Grammys are going to carry pretensions of being at least somewhat credible, don't you think they should at least try to live up to it?
I understand that in theory these awards shows are more about pimping cars and soft drinks than they are about honoring artistic merit. But if Grammy is going to pawn itself off as being closer in spirit to the Oscars than it is to the Superbowl--it should walk the walk as well as talk to talk (with all those self-congradulatory speeches and all)
Nominating Timberlake over Dylan is kind of like nominating whoever made The Dukes of Hazzard over Scorsese.
As I said, thats why God (or his half brother Dick Clark anyway) created the AMAs.
Thanx for the comments guys.
-Glen
8 - El Bicho
"But if Grammy is going to pawn itself off as being closer in spirit to the Oscars than it is to the Superbowl"
Get real. You act like The Oscars isn't popularity and politics as well. The Oscars is the most watched infomercial with its awards voted on by a body that mainly consists of AARP members. They constantly get it wrong. Don't make me break out the list.
And as a writer, I'm surprised you didn't show some love and name the songwriters nominated for Best Song. tsk tsk.
"And what once honored the best, now seems to focus on hot and pop." Connie, when was that?
9 - Glen Boyd
Guilty as charged on the lapse about the songwriters El Bicho. Strictly a matter of expediency I guess since most readers tend to identify the song with the singer and not the writer.
Also, I realize that Oscar gets it wrong nearly as often as Grammy does. But at least they try to hit the standard they aspire to. A lot of times Grammy can't even get the genre right. Witness the Jethro Tull "metal" fiasco, or even this years nomination of Dylan's Modern Times for folk album (but not Album Of The Year or even Rock Album).
Scorsese may be the Oscars perennial bridesmaid, but he always at least gets the nomination. Dylan not getting his for the best reviewed record he's done since the classic Blood On The Tracks (when an entertaining and yes, popular, but artistically lacking Justin Timberlake does) is ridiculous.
Thanx for the comment Mr. Bicho (and say hi to Jimbo for me next time you see him).
-Glen
10 - duane
The exercise of pretending to honor artistic achievements -- movies, music, painting, poetry, writing, graffiti, gardening, whatever -- should be dispensed with altogether. It's completely misguided, it's cynical, it's a ruse, and the details of who gets nominated and who "wins" should not be taken seriously by ANYONE (except corporate sponsors, as pointed out by Joey V, and record companies).
Now, go watch the show, and have fun. Screw arguments over Dylan, Springsteen, Timberlake, and all the rest of the pop artists. They inhabit the surface of a deep musical pond.
11 - D'oh
Bah!
I'll never give my support to any institution that would place Timberlake's pseudo-pop bullshit over things like the Dylan album, or the overlooked 10,000 Days.
12 - Ben
I feel your pain. Springsteen did get nominated in the traditional folk category along with Linda Rondstadt & Ann Savoy's excellent Adieu False Heart. Dylan was nominated in the contemporary folk category. Rosanne Cash's Black Cadillac was also nominated in the latter category. I feel it also deserves an album of the year nomination.
13 - Vern Halen
I remember the Tull/Metallica fiasco - I think it was a glaring example of the real issues with the Grammys - it's a case of trying so hard to be hip that you're square (thanks, Huey!). Kinda like when you were a kid, busy listening to that Uriah Heep album, and your dad says, "You call that music? You shoulda seen Fabian back in the day!" Sure, Dad. So let them be arbitrer of all things square - who cares?
I've got a more esoteric point to make, but I'll save that for now. Great blog, Glen - I woould've gone over to your site to read it anyways, but I'm still glad it was run here.
14 - Glen Boyd
Vern,
Actually this isn't on my blog yet (it will be later this weekend), so I'm glad you were able to see it here first Vern.
Love your reference to Uriah Heep. They were one of the great forgotten bands that everybody loved but no one would admit to. Probably the main inspiration for Spinal Tap too.
Anyway, I Appreciate the comment.
And to Ben and D'Oh -- well, thanks for agreeing with me on this. I suspect theres a lot more of us out there too.
Thanx all.
-Glen
15 - Martin Lav
Good article Glen.
Neil Youngs nominations, if he wins this time around, will be written off as simply a long overdue nod to a very deserving artist, or more of the liberal lefts infiltration of anything considered entertainment.
Peace
16 - Glen Boyd
I think the gratuitous "long overdue" nod would be closest to hitting the mark on that Marty. I hope he wins too, but I think the Chilis are gonna walk away with it myself.
Thanx for the comment Marty.
-Glen
17 - El Bicho
Other than the writing and technical categories, the Oscars usually blow it. They are always giving out too many make-up awards, which defeats the whole thing.
"I think the Chilis are gonna walk away with it myself."
Think they'll share it with Tom Petty? Only seems fair.
At least Tull had a good laugh out of it. From an ad afterwards: "The flute is a heavy, metal instrument!"
I guarantee Dylan doesn't give a shit and neither did Metallica at the time, and if they do, then they definitely don't deserve it. What real artist would? Hey, Picasso, you are up for Best Painter of the Year.
Pick catergories for The Glennys and they will have just as much weight with me, although I'm guessing the award ceremony won't be as cool, no offense.
18 - Dave
19 - sr
Cant take it no more with Mammys Grammys. Lets all sing. Mammy Mammy how I love ya my dear old mammy. The sun shines east, the sun shines west. Im comin mammy. Oh oh oh mammy. Id walk a million miles for one of your smiles. Mammy mammy. Who is Al Jolson? Friday night. Just some good rum, boxing and late night snakes. Dam life is good when your silver.
20 - Vern Halen
Tull wins Grammy offical site sez yes it did.
21 - Dave
You'll notice that it doesn't say Tull won the Metal Grammy, which is one of those things that everybody remembers even though it's not true, like when "Danny Ainge bit Tree Rollins".
They won for Hard Rock back when it was a combined category, and it was completely appropriate.
22 - Ray Ellis
The fact of the matter is this. The Grammys have never, ever honored artistic achievement. They honor commercial achievement. Look at the stats. If a recording just happened to be something that struck a nerve in the zeitgeist, and just happened to be something meaningful, it was only a happenstance relative to its commercial success.
That being said, I don't really see why anybody's surprised at the nominations.
23 - Glen Boyd
Dave,
If my memory serves me correct this was the first year that the Grammys created a specific category with the intention of honoring heavy metal. I also believe that you are correct -- sorta. I think they actually caled the category "hard rock/ heavy metal." But the intent was clearly to acknowledge metal and set it apart from the more standard "rock" category, much as they did with so-called "alternative" a few years later.
Much as I do like Jethro Tull (and I do like them), picking them over competitors like Metallica was a gaffe that has gone down as historic. It rates right up there with the lip-synching Milli Vanilli getting the honor.
I stand by my statement.
Thanx for the comment.
-Glen
24 - Glen Boyd
El Bicho,
The Glennys huh? maybe it's an idea whose time has finally come.
Thanx for the comment.
-Glen
25 - Dave
Glen, Memory doesn't have to serve; just use Vern's link and see that it was a combined Hard Rock and Metal category -- each of which was being recognized for the first time that year. As a hard rock band, it was entirely appropriate for Tull to have won despite the fact that it upset the fans of the then-trendy Metallica.
I looked over the entire 108 categories in this year's list and the only things I know I've heard for certain are Saudades and the Cellar Door set.
Where's the nomination for Zappa's Imaginary Diseases? Snubbed again. Fargin' Bastidges.