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Live Blogging the 2006 Elections

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Eric Berlin will be live blogging and drinking coffee throughout Election Day. Keep it tuned right here for the latest!

Entries are listed newest-to-oldest.

11:59 p.m. PST – Pasadena, California

It’s 3:00 a.m. on the east coast, and the pundits are getting punchy. Chris Matthews and Keith Olbermann are discussing the voices in their respective heads and exchanging plaudits and donuts. Meanwhile, there’s a dude on CNN ranting and raving.

I’m getting punchy myself so I’ll sign off for the night. It’s been great fun live blogging this election from my peculiar and hopefully entertaining perspective, and a great night overall!

11:30 p.m. PST – Pasadena, California

The size of the new Democratic majority in the House is looking to be in the outer ranges of most predictions, in other words a really and truly monster night!

Things started to “sink in” for me overall a little bit with McCaskill’s victory in Missouri. I mentioned to a fellow Blogcritic on the phone this evening that I haven’t felt quite this way since 1992, when I was a freshman in college. It just didn’t seem possible, as a kid who grew up during the Reagan-Bush ’41 years, for a Democrat to take over the White House.

Now we’re on the cusp of seeing Democrats take over both houses of Congress. It’s still looking like it’s going to be a long march to get Webb over the top in Virginia. However, it’s very very meaningful that he has the “high ground” of having the vote lead, about 11,000 votes at last check.

To wrap up: great great night for Dems, and getting very close to simply unbelievable.

10:44 p.m. PST – Pasadena, California

It looks like control of the US Senate might (if Missouri and Montana continue to lean the Demoratic way) come down to Virginia.

It’s really tight, and the lawsuits and long waits may well lie ahead.

9:02 p.m. PST – Pasadena, California

Man, the Allen-Webb race is tight! MSNBC has Allen up by a few thousand, and CNN has it the other way. James Carville seems convinced that it’s going to come down to Montana — if he’s right, I think we just might squeeze out a Democratic Senate as well.

There’s also a lot of talk about a Democratic sweep… in the Northeast, at the least. The picture in the rest of the country is still getting defined. But in any event, angry independents have spoken this year, and there will be major repercussions from it on many fronts.

Here’s a quick sketch list:

* Moderate Republicans are now a rare breed
* Karl Rove’s brand of rev up the base and scare bloody hell out of everyone else has finally failed
* Democrats are finally seeing their way to finding a ruling majority

From a pure politics standpoint, things are going to be very interesting.

Lots more to come!

8:09 p.m. PST – Pasadena, California

A new House.

MSNBC is projecting that the Democrats will take control of the U.S. House of Representatives. How big the majority will be remains to be seen. But for now let’s just take in this moment. I’m proud of our country for (finally!) repudiating failed foreign policy and arrogant and in many cases incompetent administration on the home front.

The country is clearly calling for balance, and I think that says a lot about all of us Americans.

7:35 p.m. PST – Pasadena, California

Oh, I should add that it is in no way insignificant that the Dems have held Senate seats in New Jersey and Maryland. Over the weekend, I think I heard Ed Gillespie mention Michael Steele’s name a dozen times during one interview. So no Steele this year, sorry!

I apologize for gloating (sort of) — most people who know my political writing know that I’m generally very measured. But I agree wholeheartedly with The Washington Post‘s endorsement of Cardin and its indictment of Steele as someone who brought nothing substantive to the table.

7:23 p.m. PST – Pasadena, California

The Dems are coming! It’s still unsure if it will be the proverbial “tidal wave,” but it’s looking very good at this point in the night.

It has been called on MSNBC — my cable news fix of choice — thus far that the Dems have taken Senate seats in:

* Ohio
* Pennsylvania (I saw Santorum give a very genuine and magnanimous concession speech — but I’m very happy he’s out of there nonetheless)
* Rhode Island

There are also a number of House pickups for the Dems already, including Nancy Johnson’s seat in Connecticut (which some have called the “canary” seat that may portend doom for the GOP) and several Indiana seats.

There’s much chatter on MSNBC, by the way, about how the GOP base is holding to some extent by “coming home” in some geographic regions, such as the South. But I would counter by saying that Indiana is a bright red state in terms of national elections, and it looks like the Dems have picked up at least one seat in not-so-liberal Kentucky as well.

5:24 p.m. PST – Los Angeles, California

Results finally starting to pour in — and they’re looking good for Dems, but it’s still very very early!

Most interesting thoughts from our friends at MyDD:

The first full county reporting in Indiana gives us a possible indication of what’s to come through the night. Vigo county is a temperture [sic] county nationally having voted for the winning presidential candidate for over 50 years. In 2002 Bryan Hartke took 53% of the vote in Vigo county. In 2004 Jon Jennings took 54% of the vote in Vigo. Tonight with 92% of the vote reporting Democrat Brad Ellsworth is at 71%. Hopefully a sign of things to come tonight.

I really don’t want to get overconfident, but early signs are very positive. It looks like Sherrod Brown and Bob Casey are going to represent Ohio and Pennsylvania, respectively, in the US Senate. Even though those two victories were “expected,” it should not be discounted that those are two enormous pickups for the Democrats. Ohio has bludgeoned the Dems to death in recent national elections, so the edition of a Democratic senator and (likely) governor will have a huge impact in both 2006 and 2008.

3:05 p.m. PST – Los Angeles, California

ABC News announces that “Preliminary Exit Poll Results Show Disapproval of Bush.” Well, I think we knew that already.

Where them election results at?

2:10 p.m. PST – Los Angeles, California

Okay, now I’m getting really itchy for this thing to get going already. Less than an hour until the first polls close, and then we’re in for a deluge of info and results for the rest of the night.

I’m making an executive decision here and now to have an espresso.

That is all.

1:47 p.m. PST – Los Angeles, California

For political junkies, Salon.com has a must read on how to watch elections. All indications are that we’ll know how the night is going to go relatively early by watching key races in such places as Indiana, Ohio, and even New Hampshire.

The earliest polls close in a little over an hour — we’re getting close!

12:43 p.m. PST – Los Angeles, California

Howard Fineman on President Bush as Borat. Well, not exactly, but sort of. Good stuff. I like Fineman — he can be a bit stuffy but he’s a great political writer.

We’ll take what we can get as the countdown hours slowly burn down…

11:32 a.m. PST – Los Angeles, California

People are really watching. Like, around the world: “America’s midterm elections have enormous global implications for the War on Terror and climate change.”

For reals.

10:55 a.m. PST – Los Angeles, California

Here ye, here ye, get your poll closing times and election results color coded maps!

Check ‘em out at Opinion Journal and Swing State Project.

Does this mean that we’ll be hearing about results about contested congressional seats in Indiana and Kentucky in only four short hours or so?

Can you stand the intensity of the drama?

Am I being dramatical enough?

Answer key: probably, probably, and shut it

9:46 a.m. PST – Los Angeles, California

Listened to Air America radio this morning for a bit, and the mood was fairly giddy. Al Franken states that he is “overconfident.” I’m nervous that he’s overconfident!

By the way, note to The Al Franken Show: your scripted comedy bits tend to be cringe-worthy and painful. Whenever the sidekick guy (I don’t know what his name is and I listen to the show often enough, which tells you something) speaks his lines, oh-my-lord you can tell that he’s reading his lines.

Al can be funny and witty and sharp in the right setting. For example, when he announced that the show was ready and prepared to announce its endorsements for the elections this morning, now that was funny! He then went on to announce his endorsement of Bob Casey for Senate. Good stuff.

7:57 a.m. PST – Pasadena, California

Okay, here are my predictions, if only because people won’t stop harassing me for them (and by people, I mean my dog, and by harassing I mean she’s bugging me to take her on a walk, or “walkies” as we like to call it, but I digress):

HOUSE: + 24 seats for the Democrats, with most the pickups coming in scandal-plagued districts and the Northeast, including Connecticut, Pennsylvania, and my home state of New York.

SENATE: I’m going out on a limb and saying + 6 seats for the Democrats (which would mean Democratic control all around, kids!). Pick-ups include Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island (this will be an easier win than people think), Montana, Missouri (which will be razor-thin, as has been widely predicted), and Virginia. Tennessee will lose a great chance to elect an outstanding candidate in Harold Ford, Jr., but oh well.

GOVERNORS: I’m not that focused on Governors, but it’s looking like it’s going to be a great night for Dems all around with a pickup of five or six seats. I’m really impressed with Elliot Spitzer, who, along with Hillary Clinton should lead a monster night for Democrats in New York.

Looking at these predictions, we can clearly see that I’m an optimist, but let’s hope not a hopelessly deluded one!

7:08 a.m. PST – Pasadena, California

A little background: I put a lot of emotion and energy into the 2004 election. Unfortunately, I didn’t do very much about it, but I read voraciously and cared deeply about the outcome, “most important election in our lifetime” and all that. Election Day finally, groaningly hit and I proudly cast my vote for John Kerry – not the greatest candidate in the world but a respected and thoughtful man who I believed would help to curb and roll back many of the excesses I saw in the first four years of the Bush administration.

When “we” couldn’t quite get over the top in Ohio late that night, I was stunned. Floored, shocked, and all the rest of it. In the days and weeks that followed, most of my friends – even my Republican friends! – were sick to death of politics. Bush and company were back in business, and everyone just kind of wanted to take a little time off. Perhaps that’s as good an explanation as any for how things got to where we are today: in Iraq, with an overreaching executive branch, and all the rest of it.

For me, though, it was different. I felt energized, if in a kind of painstaking way. I had to do something, even if it was just something to distract myself after I had read The Note and couldn’t find any fresh polls to pour over.

And that’s how blogging came into my life in the proverbial “big time” way. I brought my little e-zine to blog form in November 2004, joined Blogcritics in December (a wondrous moment for me, I might add) and the rest, as they say, is history.

Speaking of history, I’m very hopeful that today will mark a new chapter in the history of the United States. Out with the old, in with the change. I believe people are hungry for change, and I hope like hell that we see a strong indication at the polls that it’s obscenely high time for it.

6:57 a.m. PST – Pasadena, California

Damn, I’ve been wanting to live blog forever, unleash the shackles that bind!

More seriously, as the first surge of caffeine kicks in, I’m excited and nervous as all get-out as today’s the day. Election Day. I’ve been waiting and counting (I have a nearly unhealthy obsession with numbers which is fueled to no end in these final pre-election days by polls upon polls – registered, likely, and leaners, oh my!) down the days for two years now, ever since that stunning and somewhat formative day in my life, otherwise known as Election Day 2004.

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  • http://wisdomandmurder.blogspot.com Lisa McKay

    I voted before I came to work this morning. Officials in Connecticut are predicting a pretty high turnout, so I was surprised to see — not much of anyone. I didn’t even have to wait in line (unlike the presidential election in ’04, when I waited in line at my tiny suburban polling place for nearly a half hour).

  • http://jetfireone.blogspot.com/ Jet in Columbus

    Eric,
    1. How long before the sore losers begin filing lawsuits due to machine count irregularities to hit the courts?

    2. Will the results be cettified by Christmas. Don’t forget here in Ohio Blackwell is in charge of elections, and he’s running for governor and is expected to lose?

    Jet

  • http://www.diablog.us Dave Nalle

    Don’t forget here in Ohio Blackwell is in charge of elections, and he’s running for governor and is expected to lose?

    A sacrificial victim to prove the integrity of the GOP, perhaps. It’s the kind of gesture Republicans would go for.

    Dave

  • http://dumpsterbust.blogspot.com/ Eric Berlin

    There may be some legal machinations but I suspect that it won’t be nearly enough to affect the overall narrative of the day.

  • Arch Conservative

    One thing is for certain. At the end of the day the Dems will have won the “dead” vote and the illegal alien vote.

  • http://dumpsterbust.blogspot.com/ Eric Berlin

    That doesn’t sound very sporting of you, Arch. Surely at the very least you’ll admit that there are less-than-fair tactics employed by both sides. This robo calling thing, for instance, is straight-up not cool.

    And I think the practice of counting the dead has been stamped out for some number of years now.

  • http://w6daily.winn.com/ Phillip Winn

    I’m rooting for an independent candidate for governor in Texas, but someone decided to spend $10 million in the last few weeks pushing the fourth-place Democratic candidate into second place, and I fear voter turnout will be low.

    Still, I’m voting for Kinky. And from here on out, nearly every outsider I can find.

  • http://w6daily.winn.com/ Phillip Winn

    EB, there are still reports from the last election of homeless roundups and dead voters in Illinois, but there will probably always be those.

    I agree with you completely, though, on the bipartisan nature of election fraud: both major parties are filled with scummy liars using dirty tricks to get their boys and girls elected.

  • http://dumpsterbust.blogspot.com/ Eric Berlin

    I hope the next Congress undertakes major election and voting reform — but as I say above I’m an optimist!

  • http://www.diablog.us Dave Nalle

    If that’s the case I assume you didn’t vote for any Democrats, Eric. They’re on record nationwide as opposing any kind of electoral reform.

    Dave

  • http://dumpsterbust.blogspot.com/ Eric Berlin

    As is often the case I disagree Dave! Democrats clearly want to reform the electoral process. They just might not want to do it in the way that you’re in favor of.

  • http://www.moderateliberal.com Scott W

    I voted my anger today, and am praying for a bloodbath for the Republicans. I blogged about the elections and Borat (yes, all in the same entry) at Moderate Liberal. Stop by and vent.

  • Nancy

    In a way, I have to confirm Arch’s comment about the dead voting, as the latest occurrance seems to have been with a liberal voting-reg group name of Acorn out in the neighborhood of Missouri or so. Whole raft of ‘em just got convicted. Howsumever, it does not have the DNC blessing, altho whether that’s just ’cause they got caught is problematic, as they say.

    I voted en route to work (& I have to be here by 7), so I was first in line & first out as usual. I was gratified to find that unlike Lisa, my polling place had people in line out the doors before I’d gotten thru casting my ballot at 7.08 am. Gotta say tho it does make me a tad nervous when the two little old ladies per table seem unable to figure out how to get their little tabletop computer to empower the card to start up the Diebold (just touch the screen, Ladies! Poke in my last name & it’ll come up on its own. Then swipe the card through the slot & hand it to the customer. Next – ! Geez!). All the elections officials were elderlies clearly ill at ease with computers, and only 1 or 2 younger (presumably) tech-savvy persons wandering around peering over shoulders. Since the schools are out for the day, why not recruit some high schoolers to help granny & grandpa with the computers, for gosh sakes, if they can’t be hired outright themselves to run it?

    Once I got to the Diebold, poking buttons took little time, & it was a matter of seconds before I saw my vote disappear into the register (or the void, depending; guess I’ll find out tonight).

    Meanwhile the GOP is up to its usual dirty tricks, sending out fliers targeted to the black communities of Pr. George’s, claiming that 3 very Dem, prominent Black Public Persons have endorsed the GOP Governor, Erlich, & the GOP Senatorial candidate, Steele, when in fact they have not & are pretty livid about misuse/misappropriation of their names for false advertising purposes. Likewise there’s been a spate of phone calls purporting to be from Dems but actually GOP-engendered, which has likewise raised a furor, with the GOP of course denying they’ve done anything wrong, even tho it’s the same old trick as the one they pulled up in New England last time & were told by the courts to knock it off or else. Two more reasons why I’d vote for the Nazi party before I’d vote for the GOP, the way it currently is, full of maggots & lowlifes like Karl Rove and KR wannabes.

    The MSM is reporting from somewhere that the latest polls show a sudden surge in GOP support – from where? Very perplexing, considering at last report the polls here (MD/DC) were showing the DNC candidates 15 pts or more in the lead. VA, of course, is neck & neck between Allen & Webb. Northern Va, where all the recent immigrants & liberals live, is huge & heavily populated, but I don’t know that anyone can say if they outnumber the redneck racist yahoos downstate in Richmond & points south. We’ll see. What a choice: the racist or the sexist.

    DC’s problem is they’re SO Dem they’re worried that having carried the primary, DC Mayoral candidate Fenty won’t have anybody to vote for him ’cause they won’t show up, figuring wrongly that he’s already won the first time around. Typical DC snafu: nobody knows what’s going on. At least he seems like a good candidate, Fenty. A far cry from that clown, Marion Barry, who almost took down the city single-handedly. Or should that be single-nostrilly?

  • http://w6daily.winn.com/ Phillip Winn

    EB, the biggest movements we’ve seen toward anything remotely resembling electoral reform have all been in the wrong direction. Now wealthy people can run commercials saying whatever they want, while the rest of us can’t. Thanks, McCain-Feingold!

    People in power don’t want to lessen their power. Congress is set up so that even with an anti-incumbent sweep, the newbies are in the minority, unable to get anything passed on their own.

    We haven’t had a politican who thought of his country before himself since George Washington, I think.

  • http://jetfireone.blogspot.com/ Jet in Columbus

    Arch who are you kidding??? Every republincan on the face of the planet is PRAYING the democrats win so they’ll have someone to blame the already lost Iraq war on in the 2008 elections.

    gimme a break.

    I may vote republickan just to jinx them
    Jet

  • Nancy

    Like his Fearless Leader, Arch lives in a state of denial, Jet, that the GOP ever does or has done anything less than sterling or honorable; it’s all CLINTON’S fault, heh heh heh harrr….

  • http://jetfireone.blogspot.com/ Jet in Columbus

    The only election reform that’ll work is to outlaw gerrymandering permanently

  • http://dumpsterbust.blogspot.com/ Eric Berlin

    Thanks for all the great comments, all!

    Phillip — “positive” electoral reform is not going to be easy. I really believe that McCain/Feingold had the best of intentions. But it will take significant political will to push through something really substantive and meaningful *and* constitutional. I’m not confident that we’ll see this anytime soon, but I remain ever hopeful.

  • Nancy

    I think, Jet, you’re right. Gerrymandering should be as dead as the dodo by now, but ain’t. Ditto the electoral college. That should be another item to be among the first out the window. McCain/Feingold had their hearts in the right places, but didn’t plug up the significant loopholes, hence the proliferation of 527s which enable all the negative ads that allow the candidates to deny having anything to do with smearing the opposition.

  • Nancy

    I read another idea very recently, on this blogsite, that candidates shouldn’t be allowed to receive donations from anybody not actually in their districts who isn’t an actual constitutent. This would thereby avoid outside influence-peddling. It would never go thru, tho: greedy pols wouldn’t even consider it, let alone pass it, unless at the point of a gun.

  • http://w6daily.winn.com/ Phillip Winn

    EB, I agree with you about McCain-Feingold, but they say that the road to hell is paved with good intentions. In this case, it’s the road to a huge infringement on free speech for all but the wealthy. And I’ll be the first to admit that I don’t know how to solve the problem; I just know that McCain-Feingold ain’t it.

    By the way, my own voting record today will be quite mixed, hitting three official parties and an independent candidate, and I know better than to suggest that the historical trend of the last 50+ years will be broken, even though it was already in the last election. Also, I’m sure that my perspective is colored a bit by where I live (Dallas, TX), but I’m not so sure that giddiness is calle for.

    That is, the Republicans I know, including an Republican elector, seem less pessimistic than I might expect. They’ve known this day was coming for years, and worked hard on the local level to get out the vote and so on. Well, “get out the vote” among people who will vote for them, and apparently using dirty tricks to suppress it where people won’t.

    Here’s the thing: historically, the Democratic party has won votes on the ground, door by door, busload by busload, while the Republicans done as well at engaging voters at such a specific one-at-a-time election day level. That seems to have changed this year. Instead of relying on their ideas to win, they’ve engaged the Democratic party on the ground, which I think is what has led to so much nastiness on both sides this time around.

    My point is this: Old patterns have been very deliberately messed with around the country. I expect the Democrats to make progress, but I wouldn’t be so sure of control of both houses. As unreliable as polls can be, I don’t think they’re definitively pointing in the direction you’re hoping.

    Of course, the Dems could win every race by a handful of votes, and then both of us would be right. :-)

  • http://dumpsterbust.blogspot.com/ Eric Berlin

    By the way, question for Lisa in Connecticut: did you sense any on-the-ground vibes portending either a Lieberman or Lamont victory?

  • http://w6daily.winn.com/ Phillip Winn

    Gerrymandering is just redistricting you don’t like, and redistricting is necessary, because for states larger than Rhode Island, you want *local* representation. My concerns in suburban Dallas are not the same as the concerns of those in downtown Dallas, let alone east Texas farmers or west Texas oil workers or south Texas people who face more issues along the border than we do up here.

    So we need districts, and we need occasional redistricting. How do we ensure that redistricting is done reasonably, so that it doesn’t turn into gerrymandering (which, again, is just redistricting you don’t like)?

    Should it be pure math? Remember, while I recognize the profound difference in thinking between urban, suburban, and exurban Dallasites, how is a computer to tell the difference? I know that there’s a big mental shift once you cross north of I-635, and again once you cross north of SH-121. Can a computer?

    Possibly, or possibly it doesn’t matter as much as I think it does. Perhaps we set up software to count people and draw rectangles and use those districts, with multi-partisan oversight for obvious problems.

    Anything other than that will inevitably be described as gerrymandering by whomever loses.

    Of course, what happened in Texas was pure rottenness, and a lot of why not many Republicans are getting my vote this year. But I guarantee you that the Democrats would have and will do the same thing with the same power.

  • http://counter-point.blogspot.com Scott

    I think the Lieberman/Lamont race is going to be much closer than polls are showing. I’m not saying Lamont wins, but I don’t think he loses by 12 points either.

    Also, watch the Florida GOV race…anecdotal evidence is pointing to a possible Davis upset win.

  • Janice

    Eric,

    Do you think there’s a chance that Malachy McCourt will win in NY?!?!

  • http://jetfireone.blogspot.com/ Jet in Columbus

    Phillip, it’s not the redistricting I object to its how it’s done. Have you ever seen a map of some of the voting districts.

    Just one look would convince anyone of the shenanigans going on.

  • http://dumpsterbust.blogspot.com/ Eric Berlin

    Scott, I think you’re right but I’d be very very surprised to see Lamont pull it out. It’s extraordinary to me that the Republican candidate might not break 10% in a state-wide race!

    Janice, I saw Malachy McCourt on Hardball a few months ago and he was a riot, quite a character! But sadly, no, I don’t see the Greens quite breaking through this year.

  • http://dumpsterbust.blogspot.com/ Eric Berlin

    What’s very interesting about gerrymandering, Phillip, is that it might come back to bite the GOP. Because there are now so many “safe” seats on both sides, if the Dems can tip the balance and pull in new seats in the Northeast (where we may well be seeing the crumbling of the moderate wing of the Republican party) and the West (where the Libertarian Democrats may truly be a new and vibrant factor in national politics), a case could be made for a stable Dem majority in the House.

    But of course, some voting still needs to be done!

  • http://wisdomandmurder.blogspot.com Lisa McKay

    EB, I think it’s a foregone conclusion that Lieberman’s going to win. I’ll hold out for the possibility of being pleasantly surprised to the contrary, but I’m not counting on it.

    A lot of the lawn signs and other stuff in my neck of the woods seem to favor Lamont, but I live in kind of a lefty-crunchy area anyway, so it’s not a very good sample.

    My hunch is that a good chunk of the Independent vote and most of the Republican vote will go to Joe.

    The TV ads in Connecticut, for virtually every candidate on the ballot, regardless of party, have been relentlessly negative. Everyone has concentrated on saying what’s bad about the other guy without bothering to give the voters much of a reason to vote for anyone. It’s been a pretty depressing season. But then what else is new in politics these days?

  • Mark Saleski

    Everyone has concentrated on saying what’s bad about the other guy without bothering to give the voters much of a reason to vote for anyone.

    which is exactly why i’m sitting this one out.

  • Nancy

    I will put in a plug here for a Republican in the No. Va. contests, one Frank Wolf: of all the ads I heard on radio, one of his was POSITIVE, as to why people should vote for him; absolutely no negatives of any kind, or mention about dire consequences if they didn’t vote for him. It was a pleasure to hear. I didn’t hear positive ads of any kind from any of the others in either party.

  • http://w6daily.winn.com/ Phillip Winn

    EB, yes, the latest round of GOP gerrymandering will indeed almost certainly bite them where the sun don’t shine. In many cases they took locked-in Republican districts and cut away the edges to add some more Republican voters to “too-liberal” districts, but it may turn out that they’ve cut away a little too much, so that formerly locked-in districts are now only “probably” Republican.

    Looks good on them, I say. I hope they screwed the pooch with redistricting in Texas. They’d sure be unhappy to have seen my ballot today. I had a fit of anti-incumbentism that caused votes against both Dems and Reps, but of course there are more Reps in power in Texas, so they lost more.

  • http://dumpsterbust.blogspot.com/ Eric Berlin

    Great thoughts and info Phillip, thanks!

    Now, what we really want to know is if you have a Kinky update for us.

  • http://w6daily.winn.com/ Phillip Winn

    You know, I tried to get info out of them, but these “judges” are frustratingly tight-lipped. They did say that they had really high early-voter turnout last week, higher than expected, but that’s just one polling place. For more detail, it looks like I’m going to have to wait until 7pm Central time, 5pm Pacific, when the polls close.

    Bush was in town yesterday, speaking to cheering crowds in downtown Dallas, but is back at the White House today, presumably watching the result on Fox News. Me, I’ll turn on the local network affiliate that appears first on my dial, and change the channel every time there’s a commercial. That ought the result in roughly equal time, right?

  • http://dumpsterbust.blogspot.com/ Eric Berlin

    I’m down with MSNBC myself. Will probably flip around to CNN, NBC, and ABC and will certainly try to catch The Daily Show’s coverage at some point (though it will be on tape delay out here on the west coast).

  • http://dumpsterbust.blogspot.com/ Eric Berlin

    I listed my predictions above — who else would like to jump in!?

  • Janice

    It’s Spitzer (Governor), Hevesi (Comptroller), Cuomo (Atty General) & Hillary (Senator) in NY

  • http://w6daily.winn.com/ Phillip Winn

    I should have added that Kinky believes high turnout will favor him. He has stated that with a 47% turnout or higher, he expects to win, while the state is predicting a 33% or so turnout.

    Frankly, there’s not a lot to get excited about *other* than Kinky on the ballot, so he’s probably right.

  • http://w6daily.winn.com/ Phillip Winn

    Okay, EB, since you laid out your numbers, I’ll lay out mine. I think it’s going to go 50-50 in the Senate, counting Joe Lieberman as a Democrat. A split session ought to be interesting, at least.

    The House is going to go to the Democrats, I’m sure, but by how much? I think I’m going to say 225-210, with Katherine Harris as somewhat of an early indicator about whether that’s right. You’re probably right about New York, though California might go unexpectedly more Republican than expected if Schwarzaneggar gets the turnout he wants. Florida might be more Rep than expected as well.

    I could see the Reps holding on to as many as 215 seats, but no more than that. The Dems will control the House, that’s a given in my mind.

  • Clavos

    Phillip, Katherine Harris is running for the Senate.

  • http://dumpsterbust.blogspot.com/ Eric Berlin

    Maybe Phillip means if Harris gets less than 15% of the vote (hee!)?

    I don’t see that California is going to be much of a factor nationally. There are a few seats that could potentially fall into the Dems’ laps, but at that point in the night I think it’s going to be a relatively small factor.

  • gonzo marx

    just for you Eric, i’m gonna ping my last in this Thread…

    Predictions: 20 – 25 House seats go Dem
    4-5 Senate seats go Dem (yeah, i don’t see them getting the Senate..i could be wrong here, but i think the best they get is a tie, with Cheney being the deciding vote)

    Governor’s races – too many to get into individually, but i *see* a lot more than most woudl think going Dem as a pure reactions against the GOP

    notable exception – going against the pure math, i’m gonna say Kinky Friedman fer Texas Governor…

    would be the best thing to come out of Texas since
    this

    heh

    Excelsior?

  • http://w6daily.winn.com/ Phillip Winn

    I just mean that Harris’ results will tell me much about how Florida is feeling in ways that will leak over to the house race. The two are not unrelated; most voters who vote Republican for Senate don’t vote Democrat for House.

    Yes, EB, the overall big picture is being formed (I think) in the northeast, which is why I’m certain the Dems will win the house. Still not sure on the Senate, though. Either 50-50 (as I already said) or maybe even 51-49 Reps.

    Polls are closed now in most of two states, so I’ll wait and see. :-)

  • Scott

    if true, this is potentially huge…but take with a grain of salt for now…

    CNN reports corruption was the number most important issue to voters who responded to exit surveys. Early Senate numbers (uncomfirmed and with caveats):

    Democrats are leading in Rhode Island (+7), Virginia (+7), Pennsylvania (+15), Ohio (+14), New Jersey (+8), Montana (+9), Missouri (+2).

    Republicans are leading in Tennessee (+3) and Arizona (+4)

  • http://dumpsterbust.blogspot.com/ Eric Berlin

    Yes, Scott, those are unconfirmed exit polls so they should be taken with a large grain of salt.

    I remembering being happy for a spell two years ago today…

  • Arch Conservative

    So much for your exit polls Scott. It’s now being reported Allen is up big on Webb in Virginia according to actual votes.

  • http://www.diablog.us Dave Nalle

    Arch, that was with like 2% of the vote counted. They’ve now counted half the votes and Webb is up by a tiny margin.

    Dave

  • Clavos

    In the race for Florida Congressional District 16, where Republican candidate Joe Negron is having to run against Democrat Tim Mahoney under deposed Mark Foley’s name on the ballot, latest results ( with 40% precincts reporting) are:

    Foley/Negron 49%

    Mahoney 48%

    A close race!

    In the Florida governor’s race, Republican Charlie Crist has been leading Democrat Jim Davis all evening. Current results, with 28% of precincts reporting are:

    Crist 55%

    Davis 42%

    No surprise there.

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    Looks like the GOP is gonna pick up a couple House seats in GA…the 8th and the 12th…

  • http://www.futonreport.net/ Matthew T. Sussman

    Gallagher : Watermelon :: Strickland : Blackwell

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    Chafee is now projected to lose his RI Senate seat…that’s three pickups for the Dems so far, when you include PA and OH…

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    Allen and Webb are still neck-and-neck:

    VA Senate, with 81.09% reporting –

    ALLEN – 901,775 (49.63%)
    WEBB – 893,535 (49.17%)

  • http://w6daily.winn.com/ Phillip Winn

    Lieberman seems to have run away with the vote as polls were predicting. A pro-war moderate incumbent wins hands-down? I know it’s an unusual race, but that ought to give pause to folks on both sides of the aisle.

    Freaking Rick freaking Perry is ahead by ten points here in the Texas governor race. Bummer. Hutchison (R) will keep her senate seat.

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    AAAAAAHHH!!!

    VA Senate, with 86.66% reporting –

    ALLEN – 966,232 (49.43%)
    WEBB – 964,899 (49.37%)

    Can you say: recount? Can you say: lawsuits?

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    Rep. Weldon (R-PA) is finished…

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    Maryland Governor Ehrlich (R) is toast…

  • http://dumpsterbust.blogspot.com/ Eric Berlin

    Man, that Allen-Webb race is crazy close! I’m seeing a 25,000 vote diff with 89% in on MSNBC right now.

  • Arch Conservative

    Looks like corker is going to win in TN. Dems will need to win VA, MO, and MT to gain control of the Senate. Not likely to happen.

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    Missouri is looking good for Talent right now…

    MO Senate

    R – TALENT – 206,733 (53.1%)
    D – MCCASKILL – 168,937 (43.4%)

  • http://www.futonreport.net/ Matthew T. Sussman

    Okay, I give up.

    Time to liveblog the final quarter of Toledo/Northern Illinois.

  • Clavos

    At 10:30 PM:

    Florida Congressional District 16, with 281 of 335 precincts reporting:

    Foley/Negron 49%

    Mahoney 48%
    (Fewer than 100 votes difference)

    FL CD

    Pcts reporting: 320 of 422

    Shaw (R)47%

    Klein 51%

    In the Florida governor’s race, with 5743 of 6950 precincts reporting:

    Crist 55% (Declared winner)

    Davis 42%

  • Clavos

    Florida Senate 19;40PM:

    Pcts: 5743 of 6950

    Nelson (D)60% (Declared winner)

    Harris (R)38%

  • Clavos

    With the exception of the results reported above, at 10:48, all Florida Congress (House) races are being led by Republicans, with more than half declared winners.

  • Clavos

    Correction, the apparent winner in House Ditrict 11, Tampa-St. Petersburg, is the Dem candidate, Kathy Castor.

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    Damnit!

    U.S. Representative, GA District 12
    86% of precincts reporting
    Max Burns (R) 53,598 48.8%
    John Barrow (D) 56,342 51.2%

    And damnit again!

    U.S. Representative, GA District 8
    91% of precincts reporting
    Mac Collins (R) 66,210 48.9%
    Jim Marshall (D) 69,262 51.1%

    So, let’s see…the GOP picks up ZERO Senate seats and picks up ZERO House seats…pretty f**king pathetic, if you ask me…

  • Clavos

    Joe Negron, the Republican substitute for Mark Foley has conceded the race for Congressional district 16.

  • Clavos

    AP and ABC have declared Democrat Ron Klein the victor over 26 year Republican Congressional veteran, E. Clay Shaw for House district 22.

  • http://dumpsterbust.blogspot.com/ Eric Berlin

    Thanks for the updates and thoughts, all!

    The GOP put a very serious effort in to save Foley’s (old) seat — looks like Negron could have probably pulled it out in a fairly conservative district if he had had some more time.

    The night is looking better and better for Dems.

  • John Q. Public

    As it stands now, it appears by all sources that the Democrats have taken the House of Representatives. Many accounts have it as much as 32 seats, but still too early to say definitively.

    It is also appears that the majority of gains when it comes to Governors races are also going Democratic, and that the Senate is down to the wire, with the real possibility of a tie staring us in the face.

    Turnout numbers should be giving everyone hope for the process, and might even break the 2004 records. Could it be that the vast, sleepy Middle put down their remotes long enough to decide to register their discontent?

    That will be debated by the paid pundits, and many more unpaid ones, for weeks to come.

  • http://dumpsterbust.blogspot.com/ Eric Berlin

    I’ll gladly be one of those unpaid pundits, John! I think you’re largely right — the public has made a choice, and I find that very refreshing indeed.

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    The Allen-Webb race is basically tied with essentially all precincts reporting…it looks like it’ll come down to absentee ballots and a recount, so I guess we won’t know who the winner is in VA for at least a day or two…

  • http://dumpsterbust.blogspot.com/ Eric Berlin

    Indications are it could be as long as several weeks, RJ!

  • John Q. Public

    Hearing that there are approximately 33,000 uncounted votes from Fairfax county in Virginia, as well as a few other Potomac precincts, there is the very real possibility that Webb could wind up with a final count over the half of one percent that triggers a state paid mandatory recount.

    Montana seems to be going blue, Tennessee has stayed Red for the Senate race, Corker with about 3% over Ford. Missouri is too early to tell. These are the squeakers that will determine the outcome of the Senate.

    And it could wind up very sticky if majority comes down to a few thousand votes in Virginia.

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott
  • http://www.diablog.us Dave Nalle

    Sticky if it comes down to Missouri too, because so much chicanery has gone on there traditionally.

    Dave

  • John Q. Public

    With 80% of the vote counted in Missouri, McCatskill(D) is up by about 14,000 votes.
    Montana is early, but Tasker(D) seems to be holding a solid lead.

  • Scott

    My upset win pick of the night goes to Carol Shea-Porter in NH-01. She was down 9% in a poll conducted two days before the race and somehow pulled it out. Runner ups include Jason Altmire in PA-04 and Ron Klein in FL-22.

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    I think it’s time to insert a random joke about Communists taking power in Nicaragua and the US House of Representatives… :-/

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    U.S. Senator – Missouri
    Precincts Reporting – 3183 of 3746
    Talent – REP – 842,170 – 47.7%
    McCaskill – DEM – 867,295 – 49.1%
    Gilmour – LIB – 41,710 – 2.4%

    Damn Libertarians! :-/

  • http://dumpsterbust.blogspot.com/ Eric Berlin

    Wow, you’re right RJ, those 40,000 votes could end up being crucial!

  • John Q. Public

    McCaskill (D-Missouri) is coming on stage now, and was announced as “the Senator from Missouri”

    It just keeps getting more and more interesting as the night progresses.

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    The media is pretty much calling Montana and Missouri for the Dems now…which leaves the race in Virginia to decide control of the US Senate…

  • John Q. Public

    Montana with 64% in has Tasker (D) up by 10,000 votes… close, but we should get a solid answer soon.
    Bizarre that both Webb and McCaskill appear to have claimed victory without their opponents having given the concession call.

  • Clavos

    Talent is giving his concession speech…

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    This election is turning out to be the reverse of 1994, only not quite as strong.

    In 1994, the GOP took control of the House for the first time in 40 years by winning a net *54* seats, and no Republican incumbent lost.

    In 2006, the Dems have taken control of the House for the first time in 12 years by winning a net of somewhere around 30 seats, with no Dem incumbents losing.

    In 1994, the GOP took control of the Senate by winning a net of 8 seats, with no incumbents losing.

    In 2006, the Dems appear to have taken control of the Senate by winning a net of 6 seats, with no incumbents losing.

    In 1994, the GOP picked up a ton of governorships (10 or 12, I don’t recall the exact number), and I don’t think a single GOP incumbent governor lost.

    In 2006, the Dems appears to have picked up between 6 and 8 governorships, and no Dem incumbent governor has lost.

    So, basically, this election was an absolute nightmare for Republicans.

  • http://dumpsterbust.blogspot.com/ Eric Berlin

    I found those two speeches a bit presumptive as well, John. Perhaps everyone is taking a page from Bush in 2000 now and flat-out claiming the “high ground” as a defensive move against potential legal challenges.

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    “Moderate Republicans are now a rare breed”

    Yep, because DeWine and Chafee are now gone and they were both pretty moderate/liberal Republicans…

    Interesting fact: There are now TWO “Independent” Senators…and both are going to caucus with the Dems! One is an outspoken leftist/socialist (Sanders – Vermont), and the other one only won because of support from Republicans (Lieberman – Connecticut)…

  • http://theglenblog.blogspot.com Glen Boyd

    Dave Reichert (the incumbent Republican congressman and former KIng County sherriff) shouldn’t be having this much trouble In Microsoft Millionaire country just outside of Seattle either.

    Hes got a slight lead (42& to 38% percent) over Democrat unknown Darcy Burner but they are saying its too close too call.

    Since its creation, the 8th congressional District has never elected a Democrat.

    Amazing night.

    -Glen

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    Montana Senate Race:

    Jon Tester – Democrat – 125,110
    Stan Jones – Libertarian – 6,081
    Conrad Burns – Republican – 115,968

    While a 9,000+ vote lead looks pretty solid in a sparsely-populated state like Montana, it should be noted that the precincts that have not yet reported results are the more rural counties that tend to lean Republican…

    Damn Libertarians! :-/

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    VA Senate – [99.67% IN]

    R – ALLEN – 1,161,739 – 49.24%
    D – WEBB – 1,169,373 – 49.56%

    It’ll be pretty hard to find 8,000 hanging chads… :-/

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    I guess I’ll take over for Mr. Berlin, since he went to bed with a smile on his face… :-/

    The GOP holds the governorship in MN!

  • http://jetfireone.blogspot.com/ Jet in Columbus

    Thanks Eric for all your work here

    Jet

  • http://dumpsterbust.blogspot.com/ Eric Berlin

    Glen, you’ve summed up perfectly: amazing night !

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    VA Senate – [99.71% IN]

    R – ALLEN – 1,162,089 – 49.23%
    D – WEBB – 1,169,809 – 49.56%

  • http://www.maskedmoviesnobs.com El Bicho

    I heard one of the channels mention that VA’s recount is only automatic if it’s under a certain percentage, otherwise the loser has to pay to have it done. Anyone catch it?

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    If Burns and Allen lose (which looks likely), that would mean that of the 33 Senate seats up for grabs, the Dems (and their two pro-Dem Independent candidates) will have won 24 of those seats…incredible!

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    Gibbons (R) wins the governorship in Nevada, despite a last-minute accusation of rape by a cocktail waitress…

  • John Q. Public

    You are correct, El Bicho. The law is one half of one percent total votes. Then the state pays for the recount, and it’s automatic. Any more then that, and the loser pays.

  • http://theglenblog.blogspot.com Glen Boyd

    The percentage you mention is 1* El Bicho. It has to be within 1& to get VA to foot the bill for a recount.

    -Glen

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    Otter (R) wins the governorship in Idaho…

  • http://theglenblog.blogspot.com Glen Boyd

    1 percent (typing without my glasses on so I cant find the damn per cent key
    -Glen

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    Ritter (D) is the new governor of Colorado…

  • http://theglenblog.blogspot.com Glen Boyd

    I dont know about y’all but I’m as excited as a little girl over all this s**t…LOL…

    -Glen

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    Palin (R) wins the governorship in Alaska…

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    In Washington state:

    House District 8
    18% of precincts reporting

    Reichert – Republican (incumbent) – 37136 – 52%
    Burner – Democrat – 34733 – 48%

  • John Q. Public

    It is very exciting,Glen. Not too often does something of this scope and significance occur.
    A solid case can be made that the middle section of voters, many of them independents, just said no.
    More a vote against unilateralism, but definitely a strong one.
    How is that going to work itself out? Hopefully it might turn down some of the screaming.

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    Back to Montana:

    Jon Tester (D) – 134,769
    Stan Jones (L) – 6,755
    Conrad Burns (R) – 127,515

    That’s a 7,000 vote difference now…with six counties still not reporting…

  • http://theglenblog.blogspot.com Glen Boyd

    It shouldn’t be that close (in the 8th in Washington). Darcy Burner was a complete unknown (she is an ex-Microsoft programmer with no experience in politics).

    The 8th has never elected a democrat.

    Yet they are saying it may be days before we know who won here. Reichert is the ex-King County Sheriff who headed up the task force for the Green River Killer case here.

    Reichert should be running away with this. Yet it’s too close to call.

    Amazing. Even if he wins (which I believe he will) , it still speaks volumes as to the message being sent tonight.

    -Glen

  • http://www.maskedmoviesnobs.com El Bicho

    “If Burns and Allen lose”

    I bet if they had run together, they would have got the senior vote.

  • http://theglenblog.blogspot.com Glen Boyd

    Agree with you too John Q. I’ll shut up now—I realize this isn’t a chat-room.

    But I had to check in with the BC gang and get a read on what everybodys thinking. I think we are witnessing–if not quite something as dramatic as a paradigm shift–at least a very strong message being sent.

    I’m reminded a little of that famous line from the movie Network—

    _Glen

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    VA Senate – [99.75% IN]

    R – ALLEN – 1,162,327 – 49.22%
    D – WEBB – 1,170,686 – 49.58%

    It’s over 8,000 votes now, but still well within half a percentage point of all votes cast…

    Democrats should be wary of Webb, though. He is a former Republican, and is pretty conservative for a Democrat. This is the kinda guy who could switch parties if McCain is elected in 2008…

  • http://theglenblog.blogspot.com Glen Boyd

    Funny line Bicho. Took me a minute but I get it. I’m a little slow this time of night–

    -Glen

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    Jon Tester – D – 135,409
    Stan Jones – L – 6,806
    Conrad Burns – R – 128,645

    It’s under 7,000 votes now…and five counties are still not reporting…

  • http://theglenblog.blogspot.com Glen Boyd

    I think Webb has already switched from Republican to Democrat. Isn’t there a “switch-limit” rule (kinda like term limits). If not , there should be.

    -Glen

  • http://jetfireone.blogspot.com/ Jet in Columbus

    The most memorable line all night may turn out to be “My name is Joe Lieberman, and I approved this election!”

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    Yellowstone County is one of the five counties still not reporting results in the Montana Senate race. Here are some facts about this county:

    Yellowstone County is one of 56 counties in Montana. The county is in the Billings metro area.

    The estimated population in 2004 was 134,717.

    Presidential politics: Yellowstone County supported George W. Bush in the last two presidential elections. According to unofficial vote totals for 2004, Bush received 40,863 votes and Kerry received 24,101 votes.

    In the November 2000 race, Yellowstone County strongly supported Bush. Countywide, 33,922 people voted for Bush and 20,370 voted for Gore. Nader received 2,145 votes.

    Folks, this race ain’t over…

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    BREAKING NEWS!!!

    MONTANA SENATE RESULTS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL 8 A.M. ET, BECAUSE RECOUNT NEEDED IN YELLOWSTONE COUNTY

    Holy shit!

  • http://theglenblog.blogspot.com Glen Boyd

    The race may not be over but a message has clearly been sent regardless of the outcome. In my opinion that message is that nobody is bulletproof. Ultimately politicians will always be accountable to the people who elect them, regardless of how well maps and strategies are drawn.
    I think we are a little closer to the idea of us all living in a “red white and blue” United States tonight.

    -Glen

  • http://theglenblog.blogspot.com Glen Boyd

    Holy shit indeed. WOW! On that note, I may be just be going to bed. LOL…

    -Glen

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    [Alas, it’s not possible to put an image in a comment, RJ. Comments Editor]

  • John Q. Public

    From MSNBC: They had on a local TV news guy from out in Montana, talking about the Yellowstone recount. From what he had said, it looked like the count there was right, and that Tester had about a 7,000 vote lead.
    Also from what the reporter said, the number for a state wide recount is 900
    It should be resolved by early morning, but indications are that the Democrats have this seat.

    It appears to be that the big thing tomorrow will be all eyes turned to the final counts in Virginia.

    I must applaud RJ for noticing how many races were influenced by the Libertarian party. In some cases, those votes were definitely a deciding factor.

    A good eye for an interesting possible trend.

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    Well, the funny picture didn’t work…

  • pleasexcusetheinterruption12

    Wow, sounds like Montana’s going to be a lot closer than anyone thought if RJ’s numbers are right. I wouldn’t expect the 2004 14,000 margin again since turnout will be low since there’s no presidential election, and the dems are likely to do relatively better considering the current state of politics. But 5-10,000 margin for the republicans sounds reasonable, and the current margin for Tester overall is right in the middle at 7,000.

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    Holy crap on a horse-buggy!

    Jon Tester – Dem – 141,953
    Stan Jones – Lib – 7,359
    Conrad Burns – Rep – 137,241

    It is UNDER 5,000 votes now…five counties still not reporting, including Yellowstone…

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    Could it be…that the corrupt and incompetent Conrad Burns, winning a seat he was supposed to lose, is what keeps the GOP in control of the Senate?

    The irony would be rich…

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    Another county in Montana that hasn’t reported any vote totals is Beaverhead County

    Facts about Beaverhead County:

    Beaverhead County is one of 56 counties in Montana. The estimated population in 2004 was 8,845.

    Beaverhead County supported George W. Bush in the last two presidential elections. According to unofficial vote totals for 2004, Bush received 3,066 votes and Kerry received 1,103 votes.

    In the November 2000 race, Beaverhead County overwhelmingly supported Bush. Countywide, 3,113 people voted for Bush and 799 voted for Gore. Nader received 218 votes.

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    Another county in Montana that has yet to report vote totals is Broadwater County

    Facts about Broadwater County:

    Broadwater County is one of 56 counties in Montana. The estimated population in 2004 was 4,530.

    Broadwater County supported George W. Bush in the last two presidential elections. According to unofficial vote totals for 2004, Bush received 1,778 votes and Kerry received 533 votes.

    In the November 2000 race, Broadwater County overwhelmingly supported Bush. Countywide, 1,488 people voted for Bush and 462 voted for Gore. Nader received 63 votes.

    Is anyone else seeing a pattern here?

  • John Q. Public

    Good reporting on those county facts. We will just have to wait and see how these last two play out tomorrow.

    Still, no matter the final outcome of these two, an awesome shift in the political dynamic, and a powerful statement about direction for the nation.

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    Glacier County, Montana still hasn’t reported any vote results…

    Facts about Glacier County:

    Glacier County is one of 56 counties in Montana. The estimated population in 2004 was 13,508.

    Glacier County voted Democratic in the last two presidential elections. According to unofficial vote totals for 2004, Bush received 1,828 votes and Kerry received 2,641 votes.

    In the November 2000 race, Glacier County supported Al Gore. Countywide, 1,709 people voted for Bush and 2,211 voted for Gore. Nader received 139 votes.

    Okay, so this county could negate any gains made by Burns in Broadwater and Beaverhead…but Yellowstone is still in play!

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    The last of the five counties not yet reporting vote totals in the Montana Senate race is Meagher County.

    Some facts about Meagher County:

    Meagher County is one of 56 counties in Montana. The estimated population in 2004 was 1,977.

    Meagher County supported George W. Bush in the last two presidential elections. According to unofficial vote totals for 2004, Bush received 698 votes and Kerry received 247 votes.

    In the November 2000 race, Meagher County overwhelmingly supported Bush. Countywide, 698 people voted for Bush and 176 voted for Gore. Nader received 27 votes.

    So. Four of the five remaining counties were pro-Bush in 2004 and 2000. Burns looks highly likely to gain on Tester, and possibly win, which would prevent the Dems from taking over the Senate.

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    Not terribly helpful, but…

    House District 8
    25% of precincts reporting
    Reichert – Rep – 50475 – 52%
    Burner – Dem – 47350 – 48%

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    TOM REYNOLDS (R) wins in NY!

    Heath Shuler (D) wins in NC!

  • Nancy

    Here it is, early The Morning After. The dust is still settling, but by the dawn’s early light, the political landscape seems to be strewn with carcasses, most of them Republican. A few of the better ones kept their seats, but it’s been a bloody night for most of them.

    One senatorial race – Montana – is still too close to call, and Virginia is close enough to require recounts by one side or the other; but a this juncture, control of the senate by Republicans at this point is extremely precarious. Even if the race eventually goes to the GOP, it will have been by the proverbial hair or less. There will be enough Dems to put some sort of brakes, however mild, on the notorious, noxious Republican Rubber Stamp congress. As for the House, it’s now in Democrat hands, despite Republican pleas for a second chance. Republicans seem to have been blind & deaf to voters’ rumbles that they’ve HAD chance after chance for the past 12 years – and thrown away every single one with continuing & increasing arrogance, corruption, influence peddling, & general malfeasance. The public finally said “Enough!” and threw all the bums out.

    Before the Democrats settle in to gloat, they’d do well to stop, contemplate the political demise of their GOP comrades & take a lesson from it, because I can guarantee the mood of the public is such that there will be very little tolerance for a repetition of GOP faults in the new Democrat congress.

    Dem congressmen had best examine their personal finances & doings very carefully, and make any necessary corrections or reparations for ‘accidently’ overlooked income or windfalls now; there will be little or no forgiveness for such errors in the future. Mr. Reid, take note: That includes YOU. Overly close relationships with lobbyists & special interests had best be jettisoned here & now. Politicians have had far too long to straighten up their personal business & clean up their ethics. A repeat of the Abramoff situation will go over very badly, and the public is in an ugly mood when it comes to congressional shenanigans & influence peddling, which oddly seems to have been a major blind spot on the part of the GOP congress: they figured that because voters weren’t marching in the streets, corruption by members had been successfully swept under the rug & was out of sight & out of mind. Wrong again, Honey: exit surveys indicate that for 68% of voters, congressional corruption was a determining factor in how they voted. I found it particularly satisfying that DeLay’s seat has gone to a Democrat. Talk about justice, & bringing down hubris to the dust! It couldn’t have happened to a more appropriate bragging, bullying lowlife.

    Colorado’s Burns, Pennsylvania’s Santorum, & a raft of others are out, dismissed at the polls by voters disgusted by years of voter abuse by these scum, who had become so accustomed to doing what they wanted they regarded themselves as being above the law & beyond reproof. The only reason Hastert is still in office is because his term wasn’t up for re-election. As it is, he may yet be sent skulking to a well-deserved obscurity. He served his WH masters far too well. For a good many of these men, it would be appropriate to recall the soliloquey of Shakespeare’s Cardinal Wolsley, “had I but served my God with half the zeal I served my king, he would not have left me naked to my enemies in mine old age….”

    Frist is gone by his own choice, but this may have been a mistake if he’s still thinking he has a chance at a WH run in 08; George Allen is still clinging desperately to his position, but all indications are that come the final recount, he’s dead meat: goodby governorship, farewell White House, all brought down by political hijinks & macaca. Ditto Romney, replaced by the first black elected to the governorship of Massachusetts, hopefully a precursor to the election in the near future of a black president as well. I am glad to note that the only person who floated a positive campaign ad on radio that I heard, Frank Wolf (R) of Virginia, was re-elected by a big margin. That sends a good message, hopefully, to future electioneers to drop or cut back the negative crap.

    Republican issues for the most part fared just as poorly. Around the country, the idiotic Marriage issue survived only in the redneck state of Virginia. Stem cell research bans were shot down, as was the draconian SD total ban on abortion, which was sent packing by disgusted voters on both sides.

    There were the usual GOP efforts at election fraud & voter intimidation, especially in Virginia & a few in Maryland, but the FBI is already looking at those. What is it about the GOP that they seem to be constitutionally unable to engage in any election without stooping to cheating & lies? They certainly don’t seem to offer much confidence in the justice of their cause by that sort of behavior. It certainly destroys their credibility.

    Finally we have good ol’ Dubya. The results of this election are a good hard slap in the face & repudiation of him, his administration, his heavy-handed policies, & his utter incompetence in office. Junior is hoping to offer an olive branch to the Dems after spending several months of savaging & smearing them with his usual Rovian exaggerations, half-truths, and outright lies. He shouldn’t be too surprised if they spit in his face. IMO it would certainly be well deserved, & should Dems gain the senate as well as the house, he can just about count on investigations with real teeth being instigated into the Iraq war, Halliburton contracts, NSA spying, and almost certain impeachment of himself & Cheney on those items. I do hope I live to see Bush & Cheney frogmarched in handcuffs out of the WH in disgrace, with Rove bringing up the rear. I loathe those three; they are the causes of the corruption & perversion of the Republican party & its traditional platforms & values. I’d loathe them if they were the bluest of Dems. They aren’t Republicans, they’re self-serving NeoCons & cancers on the American political scene. The sooner they’re exised by a clean congress the better.

    Meanwhile, let the newly empowered members take note of all these errors & steer clear, and established members mend their ways & keep their noses clean henceforth; repeats of these errors will not be viewed with charity for either party, and they too can be replaced in 2008. Good job, voting public: Good riddance to bad rubbish. It’s past time the people rose up & rebuked a congress which has been grossly abusing both the public & their own congressional privileges for years.

  • troll

    Nancy says – *Around the country, the idiotic Marriage issue survived only in the redneck state of Virginia.*

    ?

  • http://w6daily.winn.com/ Phillip Winn

    Well, it looks like it’s down to Montana and Virginia for the Senate, but clearly the bottom fell out for the Reps. It’s funny, almost all of the races in which I voted for “the other guy,” the Rep won anyway. Darn Texas! The same clearly did not repeat around the country.

    RJ is right, this is the 1994 Rep Revolution, but on a lesser scale. The Reps botched their 1994 coup, so it looks good on them. Will the Dems do better?

    I guarantee you that they won’t.

    With the Dems controlling the House and having somewhat better than even odds of controlling the Senate, or at least splitting it 50-50 (which was my original prediction, and now appears to be hanging on my a Montanan thread), we’ll have two years of a Rep President and Dem Congress. I liked the result of the reverse, with Clinton as President and a Rep Congress. So I guess now I have to root for a Rep President in 2008, because I don’t like seeing both institutions in the hands of one party. :-)

  • Nancy

    Neither do I, so I hope someone good gets the GOP nomination in 08. I’d prefer the Dems didn’t get both the house & senate, but so far it looks like they will, even tho the margins they’re leading by in VA & MT are pretty miniscule.

    It’s important to remember that this Dem win was NOT overwhelmingly anyone voting FOR the Dems, so much as it was everyone mainly voting AGAINST the GOP, & even more specifically, BushCo. Even I gotta admit, the Dems did little or nothing to earn these victories, & when I consider Kerry’s assinine performance last week, it could almost be said they came close to snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, as usual.

    Therefore this election, to be regarded correctly, should be viewed as a rebuke to an arrogant & corrupt congress which brought this on itself through insisting on regarding the public as peons to be manipulated, lied to, and ignored with impunity whilst they, congressional members, behaved badly & as they would, selling their votes, taking bribes, favors, travel, & gifts, & generally acting as if they thought (as Speaker Hastert DID in fact say, when protesting the FBI raid on Jefferson’s office) that they are above the law, because they make it.

    Hopefully this will bring all of them to earth with a crashing reminder that NO ONE is above the law: not members of congress, not members of the administration, not even Bush or Cheney.

    Surprise, surprise, Dubya: America didn’t buy your argument that as President you, the Decider, can do as you please.

    Now the big question is, what are the Dems going to do with all this largesse in their laps? If they have any smarts at all, they’ll build bridges & invite the GOP members to participate fully in lawmaking, and assiduously avoid repeating the Frist/DeLay/Hastert mistake of marginalizing the opposition. There’s too many good, smart people on the other side of the aisle to leave them out, and it wouldn’t be fair or American to do so. Bipartisan is always best for everybody, & there should be no place in congress for small-minded, small-spirited meanness of the DeLay/Rove/Cheney mold. Congress has got to become a united effort again for us all to do well.

    On the other hand, I do believe they should marginalize BushCo, if only on the grounds of incompetence & past malicious malfeasance in egregious lying to the public & congress.

  • pleasexcusetheinterruption12

    Looks like the dems really got out there in yellowstone this year. Tester picked up 27,900 votes in Yellowstone, while Kerry only recieved 24,000. Republicans sitting at home seems to have been even bigger though, with Burns picking up only 29,000 compared to Bush’s 40,000. Instead of a 14,000 GOP majority like 2004, it was only 1,220. Sorry RJ.

  • Nancy

    Yellowstone…? I think all those votes were the bears.

    Seriously, we were all wondering here at work why it took so long to count votes in Montana, when there aren’t that many people. What are they doing – tallying votes on sticks? Some of the ‘towns’ around here are twice as big as Montana’s largest city, & got their tallies in within an hour or so. I know they have electricity & wireless up there to transmit data….

  • John Q. Public

    MSNBC and others have called the race in Montana, with the win going to Tester(D).

    So now control of the Senate comes down to Virginia. Will the Democrats take control by one vote, or will the Senate be tied, with Cheney as the tie breaker?

  • Nancy

    I don’t really like to see BOTH parts of congress going to one party. I’ve had more than enough of 1-party rule, as I suspect most of us have, hence the results of this election. I suspect it will take a strong united congress, however, to resist or undo the damage that BushCo/Neocons are intent on. Once Bush is out of office, it will be better to have another GOP pres, if the Dems keep congress, or to re-divide congress between house & senate again.

    What a sorry thing to have to say, that it’s better they be separated, because they can’t all be on the same side & not be trusted to abuse their positions!

  • MCH

    “So. Four of the five remaining counties were pro-Bush in 2004 and 2000. Burns looks highly likely to gain on Tester, and possibly win, which would prevent the Dems from taking over the Senate.”
    – RJ Elliott

    Yo Elliott, Tester just officially won by over 2,700 votes.

    I can understand your affinity towards Burns, however, as he has publicly referred to African-Americans as “n—–s” and once cussed out a group of firefighters at the Billings airport;

    Similar to your mocking the physical appearance of a dismembered combat vet and referring to volunteer fire-fighters as “clowns.”

    – A fifth generation Montanan

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    “Colorado’s ***YOU MEAN MONTANA’S*** Burns, Pennsylvania’s Santorum, & a raft of others are out, dismissed at the polls by voters disgusted by years of voter abuse by these scum, who had become so accustomed to doing what they wanted they regarded themselves as being above the law & beyond reproof. The only reason Hastert is still in office is because his term wasn’t up for re-election ***ALL MEMBERS OF THE HOUSE GO UP FOR RE-ELECTION EVERY 2 YEARS***.”

    Nancy, try to get the facts right in your little rants, m’kay?

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    “Republican issues for the most part fared just as poorly. Around the country, the idiotic Marriage issue survived only in the redneck state of Virginia.”

    Um, actually, constitutional bans on gay marriage passed in 7 of the 8 states where it was on the ballot…

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    “almost certain impeachment of himself & Cheney on those items. I do hope I live to see Bush & Cheney frogmarched in handcuffs out of the WH in disgrace, with Rove bringing up the rear.”

    Nancy, besides not having your facts straight, you’re absolutely insane to boot…

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    Some people aren’t taking the election results terribly well:

    How in the world can half of America vote in virtual communists? Why? For more welfare? More handouts? More civil rights for terrorists??

    Has the entire nation gone insane??

    Learn Spanish. Buy radioactive-proof gear and lots of sunscreen.

    Those who survive will envy the dead.

    A land of spanish-speaking welfare dependent radiation-poisoned zombies on the lookout for bands of roving muslim hordes…

  • ss

    “Um, actually, constitutional bans on gay marriage passed in 7 of the 8 states where it was on the ballot”

    Well hey, congrats on that RJ.
    If you guys just keep the focus on the victory of your backwards social agenda and ignore the crushing defeat you’ve suffered on the war referendum you might be able to drive every last moderate Republican in the South over to our side. Or at least away from yours.
    Either way’s fine with me.

  • John Q. Public

    Well, I have to stick up for RJ on this one. Considering just how rabid he has been in the past, this very thread shows that when he wants to he can be objective and realistic.

    Let us all hope that people can learn the same lesson, and we can work together, rather than at odds with each other.

  • MCH

    “Nancy, besides not having your facts straight, you’re absolutely insane to boot…”
    – RJ Elliott

    Her viewpoints make more sense to me than your phoney rhetoric.

  • Nancy

    Ooops, RJ, my bad. I should have gotten Colorado & Montana straight, but they’re both typified in my mind by macho cowboys on horses…you know: the Marlboro Man? Besides, I was all excited over the prospect of someday attending Rove’s lynching on the Mall….

    Guess we’ll all have to lay in the sunscreen, que pasa? Or should we perhaps better learn Arabic, since we just voted in all the terrorist aiders & abetters? Salaam?

  • Nancy

    Some of us positively enjoy insanity, RJ. Cheney is proof of that.

  • MCH

    “Karl Rove’s brand of rev up the base and scare bloody hell out of everyone else has finally failed”
    – EB

    Yep, EB, it’s almost as if the voters remembered Franklin Roosevelt’s words from 70 years ago, “The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself.”

    “James Carville seems convinced that it’s going to come down to Montana — if he’s right, I think we just might squeeze out a Democratic Senate as well.”
    – EB

    I sure never dreamed us Montana liberals out here in the boonies would ever be involved in such a monumental decision, but it feels nice. Real nice.

  • http://www.genericmugwump.com Aaron Fleming

    This is great Eric, your enthusiasm really shines through!

  • Nancy

    All I can say is, if all you Montanans are like the Marlboro Man, I’m moving out there asap, if only for the eye candy.

  • MCH

    Nancy –

    Believe it or not, one of the original Marlboro Men (were you aware that there was more than one, and a couple of them actually died of lung cancer?) is a good friend of my dads. His name is Herf Ingersoll, he and dad were buddies for years.

    I always thought my dad was good looking enough to make a Marlboro Man, but I’m partial.

  • Zedd

    Dave sez: A sacrificial victim to prove the integrity of the GOP, perhaps. It’s the kind of gesture Republicans would go for

    Dave if there was integrity, there would be a conflict of interest at all.

    Also if you have integrity, you don’t have to cook up elaborate schemes to prove that you have it. You just do.

    You may be over thinking this. Its called crookery. KISS

  • Zedd

    RJ Elliot

    What was pathetic was how they governed when they had the chance.

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    “Karl Rove’s brand of rev up the base and scare bloody hell out of everyone else has finally failed”

    It’s pretty difficult to turn out the base en masse when most of the base is pissed off at their own party for numerous (valid) reasons…

    And people should be scared/concerned about the prospect of a full-fledged civil war in Iraq, with Iran essentially taking over the East and South of the country, and al-Qaeda setting up a safe-haven the East…and that’s exactly what we’ll get if the Democrats have their way and we cut-and-run…

  • MCH

    “And people should be scared/concerned about the prospect of a full-fledged civil war in Iraq, with Iran essentially taking over the East and South of the country, and al-Qaeda setting up a safe-haven the East…and that’s exactly what we’ll get if the Democrats have their way and we cut-and-run…”
    – RJ Elliott

    As bad as cutting and running is, never attempting to serve in the first place is actually worse.

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    As bad as software-generated comment spam is, an actual human being repeatedly typing the same thing over and over and over again is actually worse…and much more pathetic.

  • Clavos

    Happy Veterans Day, MCH.