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John McCain Won’t Get The GOP Nomination In 2008

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From here:

U.S. Sen. John McCain said Monday that he has “no confidence” in Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld…

[…]

“I have strenuously argued for larger troop numbers in Iraq, including the right kind of troops — linguists, special forces, civil affairs, etc.,” said McCain, R-Arizona. “There are very strong differences of opinion between myself and Secretary Rumsfeld on that issue.”

When asked if Rumsfeld was a liability to the Bush administration, McCain responded: “The president can decide that, not me.”

Regardless of how you feel about Secretary Rumsfeld, he is quite popular among the GOP base. And it is the GOP’s conservative base who votes in Republican primaries, and therefore decides who will be the GOP’s nominee. It is not the media, or Democrats, or moderates, or Independents, or any other McCain-loving constituency that decides such matters.

Possibility: McCain loses some early Republican primaries rather badly in 2008. He then quits the party and runs as an Independent with a moderate Democrat (like Joe Lieberman or Evan Bayh) as his running-mate. Hillary easily becomes the Democrat nominee.

So: Rudy vs. McCain vs. Hillary in 2008? It could happen…

(BTW, I’d probably vote for McCain in such a situation, though with little enthusiasm…)

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About RJ

  • http://www.resonation.ca Jim Carruthers

    So that’s what a rat’s ass looks like.

    Because that’s how much I care about these apparatchik shenanigans. It is amazing how little you people think of yourselves in the glaring light of the world.

    But then, the people in Uzbeckistan probably laugh just as much. Well, when they aren’t being tortured or imprisoned.

  • http://dumpsterbust.blogspot.com/ Eric Berlin

    I think if McCain ever in his life would have changed parties, it would have been this year when he had every opportunity to be Kerry’s VP (or Sec of Defense).

    Instead, he choked down a huge amount of pride and campaigned relatively enthusiastically for BC ’04. In my opinion, the only reason he did that (let’s remember – Bush tarnished and trashed McCain in the South Carolina GOP primary of ’00) was to further his ambitions for the GOP nomination in ’08.

    It’s a little curious why he would make such outspoken comments about Rumsfeld now, but my feeling is that his MO is to lose no time at all in distancing himself from this administration and setting himself up as a reformist/independent conservative.

    McCain’s chief opponents at present look to be people like Giuliani, George Pataki, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, all Northeasterners with some clout with moderate voters.

    McCain’s no dummy, and he’s thinking ahead. I don’t think he’ll go independent. Look for a possible McCain-Hagel pairing vs. Clinton-Obama in ’08.

    Eric Berlin
    Dumpster Bust: Miracles from Mind Trash
    http://dumpsterbust.blogspot.com

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    “Look for a possible McCain-Hagel pairing vs. Clinton-Obama in ’08.”

    Honestly, I could see that happening, EXCEPT I don’t think McCain has a chance in hell of getting the GOP nod. But if he DID, then I would agree with you, and I think MH would utterly crush HO in the General Election…

  • http://dumpsterbust.blogspot.com/ Eric Berlin

    Which conservative do think would wipe out McCain in the primaries? Do you think X Candidate whom the Bush Administration picks or someone like Frist or Hastert or (god forbid) Brownback would pull a repeat of Bush and 2000 and outflank him on the right?

    This is a decent possibility, but I see McCain as setting himself up to first wipe out competition among the moderate contenders. Then, using his high standing that he’s gained over the last four plus years, he’ll go about in fending off the right.

    Can he do it? Does he even want to? I think if he wants it, he’s the odds on favorite to be the next President of the United States.

    But it’s very early yet.

    Eric Berlin
    Dumpster Bust: Miracles from Mind Trash
    http://dumpsterbust.blogspot.com

  • JR

    McCain isn’t going to run for president again, he’s too old. He said so himself.

    Besides, if he’s so smart, he knows what a miserable job it will be trying to haul this country out of the hole it’s digging for itself.

  • Eric Olsen

    I don’t think he’ll run – besides the age factor, I think he was very disenchanted with the intense scrutiny of a presidential race and his temper didn’t seem to be able to handle it. I see a “who needs this shit?” attitude.

  • http://www.foliage.com/~marks Mark Saleski

    besides, despite the fact that he campaigned for pres. bush, he doesn’t seem willing to genuflect before the far right of the party.

    can’t have that!

  • JR

    I don’t think he’ll run – besides the age factor, I think he was very disenchanted with the intense scrutiny of a presidential race and his temper didn’t seem to be able to handle it.I see a “who needs this shit?” attitude.

    Yeah, though it sure beats running for president of Ukraine.

  • http://dumpsterbust.blogspot.com/ Eric Berlin

    I have to respectfully disagree with y’all. Everything that McCain has said and done over the last year would indicate that he’s looking to run in 2008.

    If he merely wanted to maintain his heightened status in the Senate, he could have maintained his aloof attitude toward Bush — who, as I’ve mentioned, was something he felt no love for. The cold shoulder would have caused lots of headlines, enraged those conservatives that tarnished him in the 2000 campaign, and caused his stock to soar still further among Democrats and independents.

    I disagree that he’ll be too old. Have you seen him lately? He’s a tough guy, and he’ll be around for a while.

    So I ask all of you: if he’s not planning on running for President in 2008, why did he sell his political soul this year in supporting Bush?

    Eric Berlin
    Dumpster Bust: Miracles from Mind Trash
    http://dumpsterbust.blogspot.com

  • JR

    So I ask all of you: if he’s not planning on running for President in 2008, why did he sell his political soul this year in supporting Bush?

    So he doesn’t lose his spot in the bunker.

  • John L Smith

    Lets start with John McCain “Selling his soul”. No, he merely did what any one who loves his country or party did in 2004. He supported its nominee.

  • Marcus Antonio

    Don’t put it past McCain. Yeah, he’s a RINO and he’s incredibly old, but he himself said that presidential ambition is a disease that can be cured only by embalming. He snagged Mark McKinnon, Bush’s top 04 media guy, and he’s been keeping in the public eye with his books.

    McCain knows that primary voters are looking for a fresh new face with old-time conservative values and he’s trying to be just that. He puts on a young face, going around to the Young Republican conventions, and he’s moving farther and farther to the right — in the realm of the GOP primary voters. He’s increasing his vocal support of the Iraq War and President Bush (anyone else catch his ridiculous tactic at SRLC 2006 to get people to vote for Bush in the straw poll so that nobody would see his own dismal performance among conservatives?).

    We shouldn’t write McCain off — nor should we vote for him when the time comes. He’s just as much a RINO as he always was, but he’s biding his time and putting on a conservative face, just like Hillary is putting on a moderate face. McCain knows the liberals and independents will always love him, and conservatives are quickly forgetting all of McCain’s anti-conservative tactics pre-2006. Remember how he trash-talked Bush in 2000, angered the pro-life voters, voted against Bush’s tax cuts, etc. etc. etc.? He may look different, but old habits die hard, and there’s no way McCain’s changed much under that facade. I don’t trust him one bit.