A quick survey of the post conventions political battlefield would seem to indicate that neither had much of an effect on the race; the candidates remain locked in a horserace likely to continue neck-and-neck right down to the November wire.
A look at the pundits’ analyses of post convention results, not surprisingly, indicates the usual partisan split. We see the Huffington Post eagerly seize on the results of the Gallup Daily Obama Job Approval Poll today, the day after the Democratic National Convention, 52% approve, (but based on a three day rolling average), saying the rating is, “the highest approval percentage reported for Obama on the Gallup tracking poll since May 2011, just after the killing of Osama bin Laden.”
Across the aisle, today’s Rassmussen poll (also a three day rolling average) gives Romney a one point advantage over Obama.
Other poll results published on Real Clear Politics:
- CNN/Opinion Research Tie 48
- CBS News Obama +1 46/45
- ABC News/WaPo Romney +1 47/46
Although Obama got a bit more of a bounce from the Democratic convention than Romney received from the Republican fest, Obama’s appears to have been largely offset by the disappointing jobs news released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In its report, the BLS indicated, “Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 96,000 in August. [but] Since the beginning of this year, employment growth has averaged 139,000 per month, compared with an average monthly gain of 153,000 in 2011.” The small gain in non-farm employment produced the slight decline in the so-called U-3 rate, to 8.1. The BLS noted, “Both the civilian labor force (154.6 million) and the labor force participation rate (63.5 percent) declined in August.”
In a speech on the campaign trail in Portsmouth, NH today, the president admitted the jobs report was disappointing, saying the country was losing 800,000 jobs a month when he first took office, and that this is the 30th month in a row of job gains.
“But that’s not good enough,” he said. “We need to create more jobs faster. We need to come out of this crisis stronger than when we went into it.”
Romney, campaigning in Iowa on Friday, said, “The disappointing jobs growth – and continuing high unemployment – are signs the country is going in the wrong direction.”
American presidential campaigns often are close right up to election day, and in that respect this one isn’t unusual, but this election season does look like it will be a little more suspenseful than most.