With the help of the ever-useful 270towin.com, here is the map I’ve constructed based on the latest polling data:
If this were indeed the result of the election in November, Mitt Romney would (narrowly) become the 45th president of the United States. At least 270 Electoral College votes are needed to win, and this scenario has Romney capturing 278 to Obama’s 260.
A few things are worth pointing out:
- The above map does not have President Obama carrying a single state that he lost in 2008. That is due to the simple fact that Obama is not really competitive in any of the states that he lost to McCain in the last election. Oh, I’m sure his campaign will throw a few dollars at Missouri, Arizona, and Montana. But none of them is going to turn blue. Obama is wholly on defense.
- A few states that Obama won in 2008 are not likely to be particularly competitive this time around. Indiana, for instance. North Carolina, despite being the state hosting the DNC in September, looks to be pretty solidly in Mitt’s column (especially after Obama’s recent endorsement of homosexual marriage, which voters in the Tar Heel state rejected by a margin of 61-39 just a month ago). And Florida won’t be close if Romney chooses Senator Marco Rubio as his running mate, which many political observers suspect he will do.
- There are a number of states that are too close to call (Wisconsin, Ohio, Colorado, Iowa, Virginia, Nevada, and possibly Michigan). You’ve either got different polls showing completely different results, or you’ve got multiple polls showing a race that is essentially tied. And then there are a couple states with recent polls showing Romney surprisingly within striking distance; Oregon and Maine, for example.
- Predicting how these states will ultimately vote is obviously quite tricky.The great caveat to this “prediction” is that it isn’t really a prediction at all. This is simply my opinion of how the election would turn out if it were held today; but it is not being held today. We are still nearly five months away from election day, and a lot of things will be happening in the weeks and months ahead that could fundamentally alter the dynamics of the race. Who will Romney’s running mate be? Will Obama stick with Biden, or dump him for Hillary? Will the economy go into a double-dip recession? Who will win the debates? What sort of gaffes will be committed by the candidates? Will Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson get a significant number of votes, and if so, which major party candidate will that hurt more? And so forth. Expect a lot more drama before the voters get to decide whether or not to reelect Obama!