On April 26 of this year, Blogcritics was kind enough to publish Where is the Economic Recovery Obama Promised? Comment #20, by Frivolous D, cited this Gross Domestic Product (GDP) source. The only problem is that Frivolous D’s source ended with 2011. The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has released GDP figures for the first two quarters of 2012, so I thought a GDP update might prove interesting, especially in light of the current campaign season.
First, let’s examine the GDP growth figures (annualized) for the first two quarters of 2012. The GDP grew at a rate of two percent in the first quarter, and a whopping one point five percent in the second quarter (subsequently downgraded to one point three percent). For perspective, a three percent GDP growth rate (or higher) is needed to create jobs. To say that the GDP growth rate for 2012 is anemic is a gross understatement. Soooooo, we just may have found the reason for Obama’s jobs problem.
Economic forecasters are not forecasting GDP growth rate above two percent in the foreseeable future.
Now let’s focus upon the April-May-June, 2012, quarter, with its one point three percent GDP growth rate. Did y’all Democrats/liberals/progressives know that the GDP growth rate is lower than that in economic powerhouses Pakistan, Egypt, Mexico, Jamaica, Albania, and Cuba. Hyscience says:
“As incredibly hard to do as it sounds, Barack Obama has actually done to America in less than four years what it took Castro over 50 years to do to Cuba … and unlike Castro, Obama has done it without complete dictatorial powers (only partial dictatorial powers from his having usurped the power of Congress):”
Refer to this chart about worldwide GDP (as of February 2012). The USA is number 149 of 185, or about 80 percent of the world is ahead of us.
This Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) graph illustrates economic recoveries from previous recessions, but not from the most recent one. Notice that there was an economic recovery after every recession except the most recent one and the one in 1960 (guess what party was in office then). So, blame the recession on Bush, but the lack of economic recovery can, as the graph timeline illustrates, lies squarely within Obama’s time in office, when his economic policies are in effect.
James Pethokoukis says:
“Given anemic growth and a dead-in-the-water labor market, could it be that this is the worst non-recession, non-depression year in modern U.S. economic history? Maybe even since the birth of the Republic?”
Why, y’all ask, does Pethokoukis say that? Well, the US has not, since the Great Depression, had a sustained level of unemployment (over eight percent). And, since 1930, “there has been no single year with GDP growth as weak as 2012 that wasn’t in recession.”
And the end is not in sight. Consumers reduced buying durable good items (those expected to last three years or longer), items such as automobiles and appliances, and on less durable items like clothing and groceries. In fact, August 2012 saw a drop in orders for durable goods items of 13.2 percent. And, business spending on itself, reffered to as capital goods, fell by 24.3 percent during the same period. Is this a trend? Only time will tell. But the consumer spending drop was the largest in almost four years.
But that’s just my opinion.