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Dumpster Bust Keeping It Real Politik: 2008 Magical Presidential Futures Market I

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They come from the right:

One early version of the 2008 Republican roster includes Sens. Bill Frist of Tennessee, Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, John McCain of Arizona and George Allen of Virginia. The list also could include Gov. Bill Owens of Colorado and Gov. George Pataki of New York. Former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani also has hinted at his presidential ambitions.

And the left:

Even if Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York decides to run, there is no consensus whether she would win the nomination. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, who lost to Bush, is building an organization if he runs again and former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, who was Kerry’s running mate, is remaining active in politics.

Well, maybe not so much, but it makes for some fun hot-stove talk as the 2004 inauguration kicks off and as those ’08 Iowa caucuses are but a mere 36 months away or so (but who’s counting?).

There are even more names to play about with, now that it’s going to be, as the Beastie Boys sample, “that kind of party”: Mitch McConnell, Dennis Hastert, Newt Gingrich, Howard Dean, Mark Warner, John Kerrey, Barack Obama and about 50 others hoping that they can wheel and deal themselves into the pole position over the next two years.

In the near-term, the race for the next Democratic Chairman could ease one prominent name (Dean’s) off the future’s market. Howard Dean is continuing to pick up support for this influential position though, importantly, a victory would likely prevent his running for the presidency in 2008. No wonder then that John Kerry is at this very moment trying to make nice-nice with his former rival.

Dumpster Bust Magical Presidential Futures Market: January 2005 Edition

Let’s have some fun now and look at some early odds. As always, this is meant to open up some discussion and feedback, so feel free to fire away.

Presidential Horserace
Top Five Republicans – % Shot at Nomination – 2008 Prediction

John McCain (33%)
Will be very hard to defeat

Rudolph Giuliani (25%)
Strong rival to McCain early, fades early

Mitch McConnell (25%)
Bush’s chosen heir; hangs in late as GOP Southern, base fave vs. McCain

George Pataki (5%)
Early media scrutiny never generates buzz

Bill Owens (3%)
Bid doesn’t really go anywhere

Top Five Democrats – % Shot at Nomination – 2008 Prediction

John Kerry (30%)
A real wild-card at this point

John Edwards (25%)
He needs to find a new role and soon

Hillary Rodham Clinton (20%)
Lots of upside, lots of downside (like her husband)

Mark Warner (12%)
Fresh-faced Southern Gov. is a Dem remedy for ills

Barack Obama (7%)
Freshman Senator has the potential to be a Major Player… in 2012

For more on this and every other topic under the sun, check out:

Dumpster Bust: Manufacturing Miracles from Mind Trash, Since 2003

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About ebrage

  • David Spiro

    Al Gore will win in 2008

  • http://www.diablog.us Dave Nalle

    Gore and Kerry are both losers. The Democratic party is utterly unforgiving of losers since the days of William Jennings Bryan. After four dances with Bryan they finally learned their lesson.

    Dave

  • http://dumpsterbust.blogspot.com Eric Berlin

    On that logic, Clinton’s a winning name…

  • http://www.diablog.us Dave Nalle

    Indeed it is. But the Democrats also have a 150+ year tradition of liking to avoid well known canidates and come on strong with a Dark Horse who is new and different and not tainted by over familiarity, so that works against Hillary.

    Dave

  • Eric Olsen

    very interesting EB, I don’t see Bill as a liability to Hilary though, he may be her greatest asset depending upon how he handles himself

  • http://dumpsterbust.blogspot.com Eric Berlin

    Eric – I can see how my “pithy” phrase can be mis-read. What I meant to imply is that both Bill and Hillary Clinton have lots of upside and lots of downside.

    Indeed, I’ve stated many times at BC that no one should write off Hillary with Bill C. in her corner. In fact, no one should be surprised if she becomes the first female president.

    It’s getting close to time for a second edition of this market. A major and much-needed addition is Bill Richardson on the Dems side.

    Anyone have thoughts on you should be moving up and down?

  • http://dumpsterbust.blogspot.com Eric Berlin

    Dave – You’re right regarding the Fresh Factor, but the Clintons are going to do everything they can over the next three years to make sure no other name matters in the Democratic Party.

    To rock it morbid for a moment: I think the Democratic candidate, if not named Clinton, will have to pry the nomination out of Hillary’s cold, dead hands.