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Don’t Hold Bated Breath For Barack

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Political predictions are fun, especially when they are not fired at your campaign. No one predicted that Jack Kennedy would walk away with the nomination or the election of 1960. He saw the vision and put it into place, answering “why not?” when asked why he was running for president. But as I often tell my students, “You must walk before you run.”

Another nominee with the same initials as Jack, JFK, John F. Kerry, was a guest on a recent Sunday show. I can’t recall what he was talking about but I do recall that he looked distinguished and even presidential enough to win. Al Gore and Kerry surely should have won, but did not. This conundrum has donkeys (Democrats) scratching their political heads over the 2008 race. They don’t want to raise too many eyebrows, at the same time don’t want to let another one get away. But looking at their track record: What the hell do they have to lose? They want a winner, and they need one badly just about now. 

Another Day, Another Debate

Labor day launches the campaigns in full swing with more debates and detours on the schedule. Sunday, September 9, 2007, the candidates will once again debate, this time in front of an Hispanic audience. It will be broadcast by Univision and include English translation. In future months we will see much walking on both sides of the aisles down many sides streets, detours, no outlets, yield, stop and slow-down-for-curve signs. What does that mean to the voters? It means that we will have to wait a little longer than planned for the field to winnow down to the chosen few. The street signs are also signposts for the journey that will transport a few and change many. By now it is well known that the net roots are rooting for Barack Obama: candidate of choice and self-described change avatar. Heloise wants to predict that he will be the top of the ticket, but he won’t. However, that does not mean he won’t be on the ticket.  

The Oprah effect is real. But will it translate into votes and poll numbers for Obama? Oprah’s Book Club has gotten many couch potatoes back on the reading track. However, studies show that it is the urban folks who are the uber readers. She now wants people to read her candidate: Barack Obama, and to celebrate him. Celebrate what exactly? He has been raking in the funds but Barack has not been bumping up his ratings in the polls. I am sure he would trade a million for a Mayor’s endorsement when and where it counts most.

A poll I conducted recently also contained my prediction. What Heloise McClinton predicts is simple: that Hillary Clinton will be the candidate and will, through the wisdom of Bill Clinton, put Barack Obama on the ticket. Why? Because that will be the ticket to take it. If you think that a little bad blood between senators will keep them apart — rethink. No one in the Kennedy camp wanted a man with the initials LBJ on the ticket. But Jack (maybe Bobby) knew that this man was not only a political master but would be the dealmaker in the South. History has vindicated that decision. In spite of Johnson’s many mistakes he stands tall among vice presidents and presidents of these United States.

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About Heloise

  • JustOneMan

    Hel….here is the answer to the Obama fizzle…before the debates he was flying high…Then a catastrophic event happened he — he opened his mouth and started talking!

    The debates have done him in. He has proven himself to be nothing more but a talking head lacking the intellect as well as the leadership qualities to be the President of the USA.

    In addition, it is my prediction that the Dumbocratic debates will be “the” reason why the Dumbs will not retake the Whitehouse. Just look at the poll numbers – congress on the decline- Bush on the rise!

    While I agree Hillary will win the nomination, she can never win…

    JOM

  • Clavos

    “John F. Kerry, was a guest on a recent Sunday show. I can’t recall what he was talking about…”

    Yeah, kerry does that to everyone.

  • Clavos

    “In spite of Johnson’s many mistakes he stands tall among vice presidents and presidents of these United States.”

    Oh, please!

    The two most memorable events of the Lyndon Baines Jackass presidency were him jerking his beagle into the air by the ears, and showing us the scar on his belly.

    Oh, wait, he was the prez who greatly escalated our involvement in Vietnam, wasn’t he?

    OK, three memorable events.

  • REMF

    “Yeah, kerry does that to everyone.”

    What, affect results five years before he speaks?

  • REMF

    “Oh, wait, he was the prez who greatly escalated our involvement in Vietnam, wasn’t he?”

    He didn’t send as many as Nixon.

  • Clavos

    From the Heritage Foundation’s Center For Data Analysis:

    “The war in Vietnam brought hundreds of thou­sands of American military personnel from all branches to many countries in Southeast Asia. Hundreds of soldiers had been in Vietnam since the end of World War II, but 1956 marked the beginning of new deployments into Cambodia and Laos. Troop levels in Vietnam proper accelerated sharply in 1962, peaked in 1968 at over 500,000 servicemen, and then declined sharply every year after, ending with complete pullout in 1975.”

    Nixon didn’t take office until January, 1969.

  • Clavos

    The first battalion size or larger units (in fact the first units, as opposed to individuals or “teams,”), were elements of the 1st Infantry Division (“Big Red One”), and my outfit. Both were ordered over by LBJ, departing Oakland on a troopship, August of 1965.

    And with that, he was off and running.

  • http://handyfilm.blogspot.com handyguy

    Johnson could be a breathtaking liar and a truly unappetizing person. But Medicare and the Civil Rights and Voting Rights Acts are remarkable achievements, whatever their flaws.

    There’s more than enough blame for Vietnam to be spread between both the LBJ and Nixon administrations…no need to try to pretend that the Dem’s sins overshadow Nixon’s, or vice versa.

  • Clavos

    Not trying to “pretend” anything, handy. I was challenged with the assertion that Nixon sent more troops to Vietnam than Johnson. I proved that wasn’t so. End of story.

    Now if you want to determine whether dems or repukes are more at fault for vietnam, remember that our involvement there goes all the way back to Ike, even before the fall of Dien Bien Phu in ’54 (he supported the Frogs), but it was Kennedy who really began to escalate in ’62.

    There is plenty of blame to go around, but IMO Johnson gets the lion’s share, and it has nothing to do with his being a dem. However, the fact that he was a Texas hayseed redneck didn’t help.

    Most of the “Great Society” programs were pushed on him by people like Martin Luther King; Johnson was not and never would have been the prime mover on them.

  • Baronius

    Clav, the Great Society programs were a test of legislative leadership, which was Johnson’s forte. No one in history could strong-arm a Congress the way he did. I don’t think he was pressured into his agenda, but it gave him an opportunity to show off his skills.

    As for Vietnam, as far as I know, it was during the Kennedy/Johnson years that we increased the troop levels and restricted the rules of engagement. That was the one/two punch that we never really recovered from.

  • http://handyfilm.blogspot.com handyguy

    Nixon was elected on a pledge to end the war. It was still going on 4 years later when he ran for re-election, and 5+ years later when we were blessedly relieved of him. A comparable sort of foot-dragging may extend our Iraq stay to a similar length…let’s hope not.

    There were 53 months of war under Johnson [counting from the Gulf of Tonkin] and 67 under Nixon. And it still took another 8 months for us to get out.

    I’m not defending the pre-1964 stinkin’ thinkin’ that led to our pointless involvement. There’s plenty of blame to go around there, too.

  • http://handyfilm.blogspot.com handyguy

    And I hope I haven’t just described the first 67 months of the HR Clinton administration. Scary thought: elected on a pledge to end the war…etc.

  • Baronius

    Heloise, back to the original article: you say that Kerry and Gore clearly should have won. Based on what? Looking presidential?

  • Lumpy

    New stories about democrat fraud in 2000 and 2004 are still surfacing today. I think heloise’s complaint is that they bought the election and didn’t get what they paid for.

  • Baronius

    Heh. Lumpy, Republicans are always accused of hypocrisy about sex, but the Dems are phenomenal voting fraud hypocrites. There hasn’t been a Republican machine in about a century. The party machine towns are all Democratic: Boston, Chicago, New Orleans, Philadelphia. That’s why Florida in 2000 was so funny. The donkeys are so used to things “breaking their way” during the final tabulation that they were unprepared for a fair count.

    And campaign finances! Democrats complain about GOP millionaires, but the average Republican donation is substantially smaller. It’s the Dems who have the million-dollar fundraisers and the questionable overseas connections. Schumer is considered a hero of campaign finance reform, but he’s one of the worst violators.

    But there are no greater hypocrites than the people who were complaining about Diebold until their candidates won. Shame on them.

  • http://handyfilm.blogspot.com handyguy

    Pretending that campaign finance or voting fraud is not a bipartisan, or nonpartisan, concern because you can find examples of hypocrisy is, well, hypocritical. Or disingenuous. Or something.

    We do need some sort of accountability or regulation of the corrupting influence of money. We do need voting machines that keep traceable, verifiable records of voting. For either side to take cheap shots on these important issues is to be part of the problem, not part of the solution.

    This seems obvious, but the cheap shots keep flying on here.

  • Baronius

    Handy, I’m sure there are Republicans who would commit voting fraud if they had the chance. They don’t. There are no rural or suburban political machines. Voter fraud requires big numbers or it doesn’t have an impact. Back through the 1930’s, both parties committed voter fraud. These days, it just doesn’t happen on the GOP side.

    Illegal campaign fundraising does occur on both sides of the aisle. It’s wrong, it’s a crime, it should be treated as such, and it is treated as such.

    I don’t think money is a corrupting influence on campaigns. I think we’ve talked about this before, and came to 0% agreement. I don’t think that more laws are necessary.

    And it’s not a cheap shot to note that no one complains about voting accuracy when Democrats win. Or did I miss the anti-Diebold BC articles last December?

  • Lumpy

    Campaign finances may play a huge role in this election. With the Shu scandal likely to take down both Hillary and Barack things could get interesting.

  • Egbert Sousé

    “Handy, I’m sure there are Republicans who would commit voting fraud if they had the chance. They don’t.”

    That is quite possibly the most ignorant thing I’ve read in this thread, which is an astounding feat in of itself considering JOM has posted.

  • Joe

    Clavos
    “John F. Kerry, was a guest on a recent Sunday show. I can’t recall what he was talking about…”

    Yeah, kerry does that to everyone.

    Okay, that was a nice shot.

  • http://handyfilm.blogspot.com handyguy

    If there is evidence of large-scale-enough voter fraud to have swung any recent elections, why hasn’t the national GOP pursued this more aggressively? If the ‘evidence’ is just your prejudice against Democrats, say so. The efforts in Georgia and elsewhere to require photo ID at polling places are a blatant attempt to depress black turnout, not a response to any documented fraud.

    And to say that voter fraud ‘just doesn’t happen’ in today’s GOP is simply way too broad and definitive a statement. How could you possibly know that? You can’t. So you should temper the statement. There were enough disturbing stories about Ohio in 2004 to convince me of something fishy there, just to name one example.

    Money and the TV ads it buys have made our national and state politics into a ludicrous circus with not nearly enough focus on real issues. And you know it. We may differ on what kind of remedy is needed, but if you claim to like things just the way they are, you are simply being stubborn, not really parsing the issue.

    No one has [yet] claimed that any candidate did anything illegal in the Hsu matter. If it’s still an issue a year from now, I’ll be very surprised.

  • Baronius

    If there is evidence of large-scale-enough voter fraud to have swung any recent elections, why hasn’t the national GOP pursued this more aggressively? If the ‘evidence’ is just your prejudice against Democrats, say so. The efforts in Georgia and elsewhere to require photo ID at polling places are a blatant attempt to depress black turnout, not a response to any documented fraud.

    That paragraph deserves some attention. In sentence one, you ask a reasonable question. In sentence two, you ask for evidence. In the third sentence, you essentially accuse anyone who disagrees with you of racism.

    That’s the answer to your question. Why don’t Republicans pursue voter fraud investigations more aggressively? Because of the accusation of racism. Voter fraud requires dense populations to make it worthwhile, and in the US the densest areas are non-white. Investigations into non-white voter fraud never goes over well.

    To be completely fair, there’s good reason for blacks to be nervous about voting rights. But political opportunists take advantage of racial tension. They don’t even have to be purposeful – more mobile populations have more erroneous registrations, leading to a greater number of mistakes. But when (as in Florida) a higher percentage of black registrations are flagged, people suspect racism.

  • http://handyfilm.blogspot.com handyguy

    If real evidence of actual fraud were produced, widespread enough to swing a close election, I wouldn’t charge racism; there might well be politicians who would charge it, but real evidence would trump them. I have not seen this ‘evidence,’ only vague claims of fraud or potential fraud.

    Did the GOP in Georgia really lose any elections to voter fraud? I don’t think anyone has ever seriously claimed this or tried to prove it. The GOP has won most statewide elections there in recent years. And the Republicans in the state legislature succeeded in passing the photo ID law, and it has been upheld in court. But if you or anyone can prove to me that it serves a legitimate purpose, and actually prevents this putative fraud, I’m listening.

    I am not accusing ‘anyone who disagrees with me’ of racism. That’s just silly, and not supported by anything I wrote above.

  • Baronius

    Handy, you’re right; I overstated that. It was the sudden jump from “why not” to “black turnout” that I found jarring, especially as I hadn’t mentioned Georgia at all. I think you’re an honest guy; you’re also the only other person to post on BC in the last three days. (What’s up with that?)

  • JustOneMan

    “What’s up with that?”
    The site is starting to suck — the same three people with the same old crap…thats why…how do they sell ad space on a site that no one comes to..let alone get some losers to pay to post lame blog articles…

    JOM

  • Dr Dreadful

    That’s funny, JOM – how it started to suck right when you reappeared…

    Things are a bit slack at the moment, especially in the Politics section. And strange. There’s Dave’s weird 9/11 article, which doesn’t even read like him, and Chris letting duplicate comments and personal attacks slip by, and comments disappearing off into the ether…

    I don’t know if there are articles in pending, waiting for review, and Dave’s just too busy with his festival to review them, or what. You would think the Petraeus report and Osama’s latest blockbuster would generate something… oh well.

  • http://www.robot-of-the-week.com Christopher Rose

    Oi, Doc, to the best of my knowledge I am not letting duplicate comments or personal attacks slip by, nor are there any comments disappearing into the ether.

    If you have any evidence to support your view, please send it to me through the yahoo group or direct to my email addy if you have it and I’ll take a look.

    Otherwise, a full grovelling apology will spare you from the firing squad. Darn, I must have been channelling moonraven for a moment there. Sorry ’bout that. ;-)

  • Dr Dreadful

    a full grovelling apology will spare you from the firing squad. Darn, I must have been channelling moonraven for a moment there.

    No, I don’t think you were. You didn’t even mention masturbation.

    And why the obsession with firing squads? Too much time in Spain rubbing off on you? ;-)

    Sorry if I seemed indiscriminately harsh. BC has been, well, odd, the last few days.

    Both MR and gonzo mentioned lengthy comments they’d made that hadn’t posted. Maybe they just forgot to hit the Publish button.

  • Catey

    The Powerful Oz, he be doin’ strange things back there.

  • Clavos

    gonzo’s published (it was in response to one of mine, so I watched for it).

    If mr’s didn’t publish, it’s a blessing, and Chris and I might have to rethink the whole god thing.

  • troll

    actually moonraven’s posted as well…it was a perfectly reasonable reaffirmation of her belief in conspiracies

    btw – moonraven has shown herself quite capable of modulating her style and engaging in reasonable exchanges…if she gets bizarre and heavy handed you might check yourself to see what she actually is mirroring

    comments like #30 while humorous perhaps require that she respond in kind – duh

  • troll

    wouldn’tcha know it – I put in a good word for moonraven and it gets hung up…fuckn’ conspiracy I tells ya

  • gonzo marx

    as for more articles, i should have something up this weekend, we will see, have two Ideas bouncing around in my empty and thick skull…we will see

    Excelsior?

  • Heloise

    Hey, I’ve had open house week at school. A busy week at that. You’re right I feel like I’m holding down the fort here and I am busy too.

    I have an article on Petraeus in the hopper though.

    Heloise

    Don’t you think they stole the election ala RFK JR’s thinking and writing? Not sure myself.