In my first two posts, I examined various issues dealing with the current crisis in Iran. I examined the international relationship between our country and theirs, the concepts of national sovereignty, and the hypocrisy of the American people. While I examined these things and questioned if America should do anything, I never really looked into the fact of what we, as a nation, should do. That is the focus of today’s piece.
When we look at the potential course of action of a country, or really any body for that matter, we need to look at the benefits, and the problems, that could arise from our course of action. While it might seem like a good idea at the time, the potential of blowback, or any other form of consequences, needs seriously to be considered. Case in point, the support of the dictator of Iran for some time resulted in the current regime and the anti-American sentiment in the region.
These issues, of course, will never be black and white. Our current support of Israel is a clear example. While we need a strong ally in the region, the question is how useful Israel is as that ally. By remaining with Israel, we attract the hatred of the hard-line regimes, the fundamentalists, and the like. Do the fact that they hate us and the blowback resulting from this (cited by Bin Laden as a reason 9/11 happened), outweigh the gains we make by having them as an ally? This is the fundamental question we need to answer.
In Iran, the question is much simpler: how will US interaction (be it a statement, action, or request to the UN) affect the overall balance of power?
To me, this is actually extremely easy to answer, but it first requires some basic research. We know that both of the main presidential front-runners are members of the same ruling cast. One is the current president, the other is a former prime minister. Both support the Ayatollah, and both support the regime of Islamic law. Both candidates have used the West to justify their actions. Aside from some small differences, they seem very similar.
So, which should we support? Well, the obvious answer is that we should support the one who is more for freedom, human rights, and the like. However, that ignores the primary question – what will that support do? Before we can actually pick a side to support, we need to figure out if we should support any side at all.
This is where I want us to pause and think for just a second. If we have a situation in which both sides are fighting through an internal struggle, should we even attempt to interfere? If you say no, then I am in agreement with you, and the rest of this article is useless for you. If you say yes however, then let’s move on.
At this point, it appears as though the protesters are calling for US aid, or at least, admission that there were wrong doings. Our government currently is giving neither, and it shouldn’t. Until this is decided, or hard evidence is presented, we should stay out of the fray. Yet, even with hard evidence, it is hard to justify going into the situation. The current administration, along with the vast majority of the surrounding nation-states, enjoy blaming the West for their problems. If America were to step in, the same would occur here.
There are rumors coming out of Iran that the Revolutionary Army is refusing to fire on citizens. There are other accounts that some factions might be planning an open revolt. Both of these are good things, as they will result in the destruction of the current regime. However, they are both very fragile. If America steps in at all, the Army will unite against America, and the regime will remain in place. There is no way for the US to do anything without warranting a response.
This is why we must stay out of Iran. No matter what we do, be it invasion, UN resolutions, or even an official statement, it will be used as propaganda against ourselves. We need to ensure the protection of our country and our country's interests first, before we do anything with Iran. Once the issue is settled there, only then should we work with the regime, whomever it is, to bring about the changes that we desire oh so much