It's hard to find anything positive in the wake of the devastation wrought by Hurricane Katrina on the once-romantic and glorious city of New Orleans. But for what it's worth, a lot of geoscientists were expecting something far, far worse to happen in the immediate future, destroying New Orleans and other cities in the area more completely, with less warning and with casualties in the millions throughout the Mississippi valley.
In the winter of 1811-1812 a fault line located in the Mississippi valley released a series of four powerful earthquakes - the strongest estimated at over 8.0 on the Richter Scale - which were reported in the small town of New Madrid in what is now Missouri. At that time very few people lived in the Mississippi valley, but there were multiple reports of giant tidal waves in the river, of the river reversing course in the upper Mississippi and its tributaries, of massive landslides along the banks, of entire islands disappearing, houses being swallowed whole in the town of New Madrid, entire lakes being drained and 150,000 acres of forrest being swallowed whole. The last and strongest of the earthquakes was felt as much as 1000 miles away where it rang church bells in Boston. Because so few people lived in the region the loss of life and property was minimal - and very hard to estimate, because those impacted likely disappeared in the flood waters or were swallowed whole, with no one really aware that they had ever been there. A much weaker magnitude 6.8 earthquake in 1895 caused substantial physical damage in New Madrid and surrounding towns, and again was felt up to 1000 miles away.
The New Madrid fault line is still there and still active. There are several small tremors registered there every week. Because it is an intraplatal fault burried under layers of sediment its behavior is unpredictable and the impact of earthquakes there is very different from what we are used to seeing in California. A quake of magnitude 6.0 in California is significant, but a quake of the same strength on the New Madrid fault line would be substantially more damaging. A full 8.0 earthquake like the 1812 event would produce almost unimaginable destruction all along the river.
Today there are large cities and millions of people along the Mississippi. A major New Madrid earthquake would cause damage in at least 20 states, with a massive tidal wave in the river, immediately destroy enormous amounts of river traffic and all the bridges. It would shut down power throughout the region, wipe out every small riverbank town, destroy every levee protecting New Orleans, virtually wiping the city off the map, it would likely cause a large portion of Memphis to be destroyed in massive landslides, and there would be major building damage and loss of life in St. Louis as well as short-term flooding. Because of the large cities now in the region, the likely result of such an earthquake would probably be millions of lives lost and hundreds of billions of dollars in damage.
Article comments
1 - Steve S
Interesting concept Dave. One thing I want to address that isn't really related to your premise is this:
but the state and local governments should have been better prepared to deal with it
Those on the Right, on this site, are condemning those on the Left for attacking Bush for being unprepared. They are saying it is the state and local governments job to do something. That's all fine and good, but none of them address the fact that many 'local governments' have been wiped off the map.
2 - Dave Nalle
I should have mentioned the feds too, but the feds main role is to provide money which is then spent by the local and state governments. It does seem like the Louisiana state government is particularly at fault in this case, though. FEMA actually has experience and has been doing a pretty good job within their limited area.
The truth is that we've never had to deal with a disaster of this magnitude within our own borders - not even 9/11 - and no one has the first idea what to do. The situation in NO also presents unique challenges which I'd guess no one has had to deal with except maybe the Dutch and the Venetians and in those cases generations ago.
But my oblique point with this article is that even putting aside the constant threat of hurricanes in the gulf, there have been serious warnings about a super earthquake there for at least 30 years and people have known about the possibility for 200 years and the results are a thick pamphlet no one reads and upgraded building codes in Little Rock. That's it.
Dave
3 - Silas Kain
You know what, Dave? Somehow it would be poetic justice if the West Coast got hit with an earthquake right about now. We Americans are so wrapped up in a dick measuring contest that we've got them caught in the zipper. The Republic is fragile, ladies and gents, and we had best wake up but fast.
4 - Bennett
Nice one Dave. I was thinking that if the fault line cut loose now, how would the folks of New Orleans feel about it?
The city's already abandoned, so thank god for Hurricane Katrina!
Not that it would help the millions that live up and down the Mississippi...
5 - The Duke
Ya'll need to read books on disaster response. Really, you don't know what you are talking about. Just speculation, postulation, and rumination.
Before I respond to any flippant comment regarding what or what not we should be doing, remember... the people hired to plan and coordinate this stuff are all experts. And believe it or not, when you are a responder (as I have been) you gain an appreciation for doing large, logistically complex recovery operations correctly.
Lot's of knee jerking, finger pointing, etc... going on.... from a lot of armchair experts with no experience. Disregard. They just like reading their typing on public forums and spouting off about subjects of expertice they have never witnessed or attemted first hand.
6 - Bennett
What are you rambling on about The Duke?
Did you mean to post your comment to another thread? Because it sure doesn't make sense here.
7 - Silas Kain
Before I respond to any flippant comment regarding what or what not we should be doing, remember... the people hired to plan and coordinate this stuff are all experts. And believe it or not, when you are a responder (as I have been) you gain an appreciation for doing large, logistically complex recovery operations correctly.
I was a certified First Responder for 9 years, Duke. I've also been involved in the implementation of a state of emergency and have been involved in municipal planning in the event of emergencies. I've got nothing but the highest respect for the rank and file public safety officials who are on the front lines. Once things are under control we can go to these folks who were there and ask them what they thought of the "expert" response. I have a sneaking suspicion that you are in for a rude awakening.
8 - Dave Nalle
>>Nice one Dave. I was thinking that if the fault line cut loose now, how would the folks of New Orleans feel about it<<
They've got nothing left to lose, but they'd be pretty bummed when the cities they went to hide out in - like Memphis were also destroyed. I envision a mass return to church if that were to happen.
Dave
9 - Jet in Columbus
Dave I was in a department store in Akron Ohio in the 80s and heard a loud clap of thunder, and was suprised because it was completely sunny outside.
I found out later it'd been a slip of this fault centered somewhere in Tennesee that'd been felt that far away.
Jet
10 - Dave Nalle
I see you found the article in the archives.
Apparently there has been some rumbling along the fault in the last few years, including quakes in the 4.0 range.
Of course, if your supervolcano does erupt it will probably trigger an earthquake on the New Madrid fault too.
Then we'll have much firey, watery and generally nasty death.
But I'm sure that whoever is in office it will all be Bush's fault.
Dave
11 - Jet in Columbus
Nah if the quake's big enough it'll splasH the Mississippi and put the fire out the volcano started.
12 - Clavos
Dave, You're right about the responsibility of state and local governments to be the most immediate first responders. California does a pretty good job on both levels when their earthquakes hit. Lord knows they get a lot of practice!
Likewise, Florida's response to hurricanes is pretty good as well--again, lots of experience. The state and local governments do a good job of educating all of our residents to make their own preparations well.
It behooves any state and/or municipality/county located in an area with a high probability for natural disaster to have a disaster plan and the means of implementing it.
In the case of NOLA, it was obvious that both the state and city governments (and their citizenry) were woefully unprepared.
13 - Victor Plenty
I wonder if the supervolcano could also trigger the massive subduction zone quake we've been expecting to demolish most of the Pacific Northwest any day now. The geologic record says they happen about every 300 years, and the last one was about 300 years ago.
Either way, it's certainly wise for us all to consider whether we're prepared for the aftermath of disaster. At every level from local communities, up to state and federal governments, and down to each individual and family.
14 - Dave Nalle
Victor, if the Supervolcano is as big as they're saying, as detailed in Jet's article, I don't see why it wouldn't put so much stress on the north atlantic plate that we'd have giant quakes and secondary erruptions everywhere. We might be relatively safe here in Texas, but there are some dormant volcanoes on the Llano Estacado which would likely erupt, and the Balcones fault could probably even crank out a meaningful quake. As for California, see you later.
The government corruption and inability to respond in New Orleans would, of course, be irrelevant because most of Louisiana would just cease to exist and become part of the Gulf of Mexico.
Dave
15 - Victor Plenty
All the more reason to get permanent human settlements on Mars ASAP.
16 - Jet in Columbus
Sounds like the only one safe is Gonzo up in Maine-of course he has to put up with Bush on vacation...
17 - Dave Nalle
You map also suggests that most ot Texas will be safe from the Volcano, and we're relatively stable as far as quakes too. So when it all falls apart Gonzo and I will be running America. Fear us.
Dave
18 - Clavos
Well at least we'll have a good check and balance going when you guys are running things!
19 - Dave Nalle
Gonzo will run the Blue state and I'll run the Red state. He'll write the checks and I'll find the money so they don't bounce. Same old same old.
Dave
20 - Jet in Columbus
God help us
21 - Ruvby in Jerusalem
At least, Jet, you are looking to the appropriate Source for help...
Shabbat Shalom
22 - Victor Plenty
If America is ever ruled by Dave and Gonzo, God will already have helped us.
Think about it. The Nalle/Marx junta would mean America is not being ruled by Barger and Sussman, or Shark and Chelsea, or Brodie and Heloise.
Much as I like some of those folks I just named, I'd vote for Dave and Gonzo over any of them.