Ptolemy, Manbearpig, Global Warming and Epistemological Humility - Comments Page 2

Even a smart, honest scientist like Ptolemy could be all wrong, much less Al Gore (or Al Barger).

As a teenage lad, I ventured off to study the "great books" program at St John's College in Santa Fe, surveying the history of Western civilization from the beginning, starting with Homer and Plato and Greeks in general. In the math tutorials, they start with Euclid. Then came the part of the whole deal that made the least sense at the time: Ptolemy.…
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  • 26 - JR

    Jun 25, 2006 at 11:54 am

    The post is more about the author than global warming, so why shouldn't the responses be?

  • 27 - e

    Jun 25, 2006 at 11:59 am

    for the record, Bob is very much alive. june 25. he just watched the sunday morning news.

  • 28 - Dave Nalle

    Jun 25, 2006 at 12:15 pm

    You started with a predetermined political answer and then sought contrived science to support your position. That's where you went wrong.

    LOL, so you're accusing him of exactly the same thing the believers in global warming are guilty of. For political reasons they need an environmental crisis as a hammer to impose their agenda, so they latched onto global warming and are milking it and promoting it far beyond its legitimacy as science. I smell irony.

    dave

  • 29 - Mr. Real Estate

    Jun 25, 2006 at 1:54 pm

    I'm definitely not a fan of Al Gore, but considering a House Republican who chairs a key environmental committee recently agreed with Gore that there is global warming, it's kind of hard to argue that it doesn't exist. In addition to that, the increasing activity of earthquakes near the Ring of Fire seem to suggest more heat within the earth does exist. There are a number of things that could cause this, though, in addition to greenhouse gases.

  • 30 - Dave Nalle

    Jun 25, 2006 at 2:05 pm

    I doubt very much that greenhouse gases could cause increased volcanic activity - more like the otherway around.

    Most opponents of current global warming theory don't disagree with the basic idea that we're in a warming cycle. They disagree with the idea that humans caused it and that our actions can slow or reverse it. As you point out, there are an awful lot of other factors in play - like geothermal activity and solar flares - which we have absolutely no control over. Plus it quite likely is just part of a natural cycle similar to many which we have evidence of in the past.

    Dave

  • 31 - Al Barger

    Jun 25, 2006 at 2:32 pm

    E- I'm glad to hear Bob's hanging in. I remember seeing him talk about having read his own obituaries in the past. I can well imagine him having a Richard Pryor moment, "I ain't dead yet, motherf(*&#rs!"

    On the plus side though, this prompted me to whoop up a little Robert Anton Wilson site home at MoreThings, collecting a couple of my articles and some links and photos.

    Bliffle writes, "You started with a predetermined political answer and then sought contrived science to support your position." But that's not true. I don't have any science to support my position. I have no particular proof AGAINST the theory of global warming.

    It's not my job as a skeptic to prove my position here- it is up to you to prove YOUR position to me. It's not a 50/50 game. The burden of proof is entirely on you. You are making a positive claim to knowledge- and wanting to use force of arms to impose your opinions on the rest of us. You'd better expect to have to really and seriously PROVE your case.

    Likewise, I can't prove that Jesus of Nazareth is NOT floating in the air as a holy ghost watching us and preparing places of torment for people that don't believe in him or the fire and brimstone of global warming. Christian wants me to believe their ghost story, they're going to have to prove it.

    Now, I'm well known as an all-round no-goodnik- a lover of farm animals, freaky music and fine herbs. Y'all can cuss me up one side and down the other. You might even be right in some of your criticism. Knock yourselves out.

    But that still won't constitute any proof whatsoever of your pet global warming theory. You can tell me I'm going to hell like some Baptist preacher working up the fire and brimstone. However, far as I can tell you're story is just as not true as that of the fundies. That being the case, I'm not believing, and like disbelieving an illusionist's spell in a game of Dungeons and Dragons, your threat dissipates.

    And NF, this ain't proof: "In the next century, it is likely that enough of the world's above sea level ice packs will melt to flood much of the Netherlands, Bangladesh, and other parts of the world." That's just made up. NOBODY knows anything like that about stuff 50 or 100 years into the future. What, ya got ya a time machine?

    Well, lots of people KNOW it- but they're all just making crap up in their own minds- and then demanding that I believe it. I wouldn't know a co-efficient in a McLauren series if it bit me in the ass, but I'm reasonably certain that he doesn't have a crystal ball.

    It's like Bill Maher's quote, "Can't you just FEEL it?" No- no, I don't. Then y'all get mad at me because I do not accept the truthy feeling down in YOUR guts as evidence.

    We'll close this Sunday worship service with my favorite holy man Paul Simon

    Faith- faith is an island in the setting sun
    Proof, yeah, proof is the bottom line for everyone

  • 32 - Mr. Real Estate

    Jun 25, 2006 at 2:48 pm

    Plus it quite likely is just part of a natural cycle similar to many which we have evidence of in the past.


    It's very possble. According to my encyclopedia set, the Earth has yet to be in its final phase, which shows California practically gone, and Florida up by Long Island. I'll have to find a new career if that happens. After all, I am selling water and sunshine.

  • 33 - Clavos

    Jun 25, 2006 at 3:53 pm

    And NF, this ain't proof: "In the next century, it is likely that enough of the world's above sea level ice packs will melt to flood much of the Netherlands, Bangladesh, and other parts of the world." That's just made up. NOBODY knows anything like that about stuff 50 or 100 years into the future. What, ya got ya a time machine?

    "Quoted for truth" (With apologies to gonzo marx)

    Isn't it interesting that the same atmospheric scientists who make these predictions about conditions 50 to 100 years in the future can't tell us what the weather will be like next week?

  • 34 - JR

    Jun 25, 2006 at 4:40 pm

    Isn't it interesting that the same business owners who make a reliable profit every year off games of chance can't predict when they are going to lose a bunch of money to a lucky gambler?

  • 35 - Al Barger

    Jun 25, 2006 at 4:54 pm

    Thank you JR for contributing that lovely non-sequitir. From the phrasing, it would appear to be intended as an answer to Clavos, but I'm not seeing enough of a connection to get up even to the level of being a false analogy.

  • 36 - Mohjho

    Jun 26, 2006 at 3:51 am

    Nice post Al
    I too wondered what makes the earth warmer and cooler. If it is volcanic action or the sun or astroids, then rapid climate change is normal. But it seems no one can place the all powerful "Cause" in macro climatic changes, or at least to scientific standards.

    I wonder what the cure would do to the planet? What world economic impact would there be in order to 'fix' global warming?

  • 37 - Clavos

    Jun 26, 2006 at 6:29 am

    I wonder what the cure would do to the planet? What world economic impact would there be in order to 'fix' global warming?

    Excellent (and the most important) question, Mohjho!

  • 38 - Deano

    Jun 26, 2006 at 4:05 pm

    Kent Brockman: "Professor, without knowing precisely what the danger is, would you say it's time for our viewers to crack each other's heads open and feast on the goo inside?"

    Professor: "Yes I would, Kent."

  • 39 - Reid

    Jun 26, 2006 at 5:00 pm

    Excellent blog. If you want some corroboration from people with lots of PhD's and other pedigrees check out this site: friendsofscience.org

    Also, the issue of the global temperature over the last 1000 years... there's an excellent research article done on Paleoclimatology that shows a nice gradual down trend from the year 1000 to the 1400's and then the same reciprical up trend to current time. Which makes the climate change look suspiciously natural. If it was caused by human activity the upswing should be much more sharp and drastic than the downswing. Read the article starting on page 18 here:

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