I am following the Senate campaign of a Chicago politician pretty closely. Barack Obama took his primary by storm and is the favorite to go all the way. Young looking, very, very smart, and half-African and half-American, he is far from ordinary fare for either state or national politics. Though I have never met Obama (pictured), I'm acquainted with him through the network of African-Americans, Hispanics, Indians and Asians who have moved in circles traditionally peopled by the white elite. Many of us know of each other. The reason I am interested in Obama is that I hope to see a person of color I can respect become the third elected to the U.S. Senate. Unfortunately, that may not happen. There is a tendency for white voters to say they will support African-American politicians in polls and then switch to the white candidate when they are in the voting booth with the curtain drawn. Andrew Young, Tom Bradley and others hoping to bridge the racial gap have been defeated by the jinx. Obama will make history if he becomes a senator from Illinois.
Columnist Bob Herbert is also heartened by Obama's candidacy.
In a political era saturated with cynicism and deceit, Mr. Obama is asking voters to believe him when he talks about the values and verities that so many politicians have lied about for so long. He's asking, in effect, for a leap of political faith.
So far, at least, the voters of Illinois seem to be responding. A Chicago Tribune poll released this week showed Mr. Obama with a huge lead, 52 percent to 30 percent, over his Republican rival, Jack Ryan.
Mr. Obama has not ducked the issues. He has opposed the war in Iraq from the beginning, and he delivered a stirring antiwar speech at a rally in October 2002. He supports the war in Afghanistan . He believes the Bush tax cuts went too far, and he makes that clear even in appearances before wealthy audiences. He said: "I tell them, `Look, I think we need to roll back those tax cuts that benefited you. You don't need them. Let's talk about what we could do with that money.' "
Obama is used to excelling. He became the first black editor of the Harvard Law Review and was elected to state office at an age when most people are still using milk crates as bookcases. His life has been a complicated one. At forty-two, he has made peace wihth the memory of the Kenyan father who he saw little of growing up. He believes being reared by white grandparents from the Midwest helps him understand the rural voters he will need to combine with his urban constituency to win this election. He is satisfied with having rejected a career at a silk stocking law firm for public service.
Article comments
1 - Bob A. Booey
Decent research, but you missed the big scoop. Ryan's divorce records have been out for hours and it's some nasty, kinky stuff:
http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/news/stories.nsf/News/Illinois+State+News/28C5385C22FAF39F86256EBB00122DF2?OpenDocument&Headline=Ryan+file+details+sex+allegations
http://abclocal.go.com/wls/news/062104_ns_ryan_files.html
The basic story is that Jack Ryan, in his travels, visited several sex clubs throughout the US and in Europe and then tried to take his wife to them several times. She claims he asked her to perform a sex act on him in public on one of those occasions -- she refused -- and she was disgusted by the sight of people having sex all around her on mattresses.
She admits cheating on him:
http://www.heraldsun.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5478,9921224^661,00.html
Ryan and her parents did release reports denying rumors that Jack Ryan had abused her and their son and supporting his candidacy:
http://www.nbc5.com/news/3444854/detail.html?z=dp&dpswid=2265994&dppid=65172
The majority of the 500 pages that were released by the campaign from the divorce records were blacked out since they dealt with the child, so we won't know whether abuse was a part of the grounds for divorce. Blair Hull, the early front-runner for the Democratic Senate nomination in the primaries, saw his candidacy sunk by the release of records indicating an incident of domestic violence, verbal abuse, and cocaine use in his failed marriage. Jeri Ryan has repeatedly denied abuse and said that she won't sink her ex-husband's candidacy, so it's a non-issue.
Ryan gave a press conference today saying he'd stay in and that the records didn't disqualify him in any way. He also released a statement which bemoaned the impact of the records upon his son's image of his parents and decrying their release as "smut" -- one wants to remind him that they're only an account of actions he's admitted to, so who's the smutty one? Ryan would only acknowledge one such trip to a sex club in Paris -- he called it an "avant-garde club" -- and said that both he and his wife were uncomfortable and that he'd learned his lesson. He also stressed in his press conference that he wouldn't do such a thing again in his travels as a U.S. Senator.
Ryan has spent the past few days playing damage control with Republican leadership in the state in private and has vowed not to quit the campaign. I think the fundamental problem he will have is that he's already too young, glib, Hollywood/New York and Catholic to woo the Southern Illinois and western suburban voters that have been the GOP's only reliable shot at winning seats in Illinois. Peter Fitzgerald took advantage of a candidate, Carol Moseley Braun, who made colossal errors in judgment and in campaign organization. Obama, on the other hand, is a squeaky-clean family man who seems to live and breathe public policy. This almost certainly means that Jack Ryan will have a hard time winning the family values debate and using the language of morality in race politics in this upcoming campaign. His reputation is for conservative economics and pro-wealth tax policy, so I'm sure he'll run harder on that agenda now.
Ryan already had an uphill battle in the polls. Obama will dominate Chicago and the surrounding areas with likely record numbers -- he's a charismatic speaker and has been around Illinois politics for a while as a state Senator. This latest controversy won't particularly change many votes, I don't think. Ryan could only really count on the small percentage of hard-right voters in the state to begin with and they won't vote for a black candidate who takes the positions Obama does on certain issues. That's electoral history in Illinois. I do think that where this revelation will hurt Jack Ryan is with the swing voters in the expanding western and southern suburbs of Chicago, the so-called NASCAR dads.
This might focus Ryan as a candidate since his primary run was somewhat unremarkable and his campaign skills have seemed lackluster, manic, and desperate on occasion (hence the "Obama stalker" following around the opponent). Ryan's public speaking seems forced and insincere at times and his youthful, good-looking appearance and Ivy League rich prep boy background might have worked against him in relating to rural voters. I think that getting this humiliation out of the way early in the season will make Ryan a more humbled, issues-focused candidate who will take nothing for granted. Of course, it also makes the exact opposite more probable: that he'll drop rapidly in the polls and have to resort to smear tactics and a viciously negative campaign based on law-and-order, gays, illegal immigrants or some other hot-button issue, which I think isn't beyond him. One of the candidates in the Republican primary, Jim Oberweis (a wealthy dairy owner), ran a terrible ad flying over the White Sox baseball stadium in a helicopter talking about how all the illegal immigrants that cross the border every day could fit into it. The problem with going negative, though, is that this sex scandal will only lead reporters to dig further into his past if he goes negative and he'll lack credibility to make charges stick or moralize about social politics. Ryan's primary ads changed remarkably as well: he started a straight-forward resume ad showing his expensive Italian loafers as he went to his old banking job and detailing his Ivy League education to a picture of his short stint teaching at a Catholic school -- the ad showed all black students acting unruly until Ryan came into the room and they settled down, a less-than-subtle image that I'm sure he imagined showed his racial sensitivity. When his poll numbers in the primaries showed weaknesses, he ran several humorous ads showing various special interests coming to his door and his mock, comic exasperation with the ridiculous demands (rolling his eyes while trying to watch the TV with his remote in hand as the doorbell rang yet again). I think that showed good flexibility in his advertising and adaptability, but I don't think the special interest "reformer" label will be a winning strategy against Obama, who has an even better record on that, especially with corporations.
Obama's resume is impeccable and he's a future superstar in American politics -- we honestly have NEVER seen such an elected black leader in this nation's history, especially in the rare air of the Senate. He might be a bit too liberal for the American mainstream, but he'll win Illinois easily and he's surprisingly (perhaps too) moderate on issues like the death penalty, gay marriage and several other key issues. His background includes working for former Illinois Senator Paul Simon, after whom he styles himself -- I think that role model should serve Obama will if he follows it since Simon served a long, distinguished career as a bookish, influential liberal who kept a folksy touch with his constituents (kind of a Moynihan light without all the bluster).
Bottom line: Obama will win a solid victory and it'll be interesting to see how he makes his mark in Congress. The only concern I'd have is that he'd try too hard to do too much too early in a divided, fractured Senate where change is glacial. If he can manage his first term well, he could well be an institution in American politics and a true voice for progressive black politics. I don't think he's moderate enough to win the Presidency with an African name by any stretch of the imagination (which is unfortunate). However, a decade or two from now we could definitely hear Vice Presidential talk involving his name if he works hard and avoids the kind of controversies Braun had, which I believe he will since he's low-key and thoughtful where Braun occasionally showed her vanity.
The Ryan scandal won't play out as being that huge in this election but it could change the tone of the campaign in interesting ways and will cement the doubts voters have had about Ryan and his qualifications. I think this is particularly true among black voters -- Ryan clearly didn't think Obama would win the Democratic primary and seemed to initially be angling himself as a Bush-styled "compassionate conservative" who understood minorities. I doubt he would have won many black voters to begin with, but a family values and God agenda won't win him any black religious voters on issues like gay marriage now with a sex scandal attached to his candidacy.
No offense, but I doubt you occupy the same circle as Barak Obama. He's now regarded as a future star by both parties and that's why this race has received some national attention -- not because it's close but because it has a potentially huge impact beyond the possibility of the first black man in the Senate EVER. Your self-comparison to him, however, shows that his personality and abilities are admired and will serve him well with voters and as a Senator.
I am glad you blogged the beginning of this topic even if you missed a lot of the details, MacDiva, since I would have considered doing it myself if I knew how. Kudos on that.
That is all.
2 - Bob A. Booey
That should read "initially seemed to be angling" ... there are a couple of other typos too, but I wrote this really quickly.
Another problem Ryan will have is the GOP establishment was fairly divided over which candidate to support in the primaries -- there were a couple of influential state Senators involved who questioned Ryan's qualifications pretty severely. I don't think the GOP party in Illinois is completely sold on Ryan's chops as a politician and this will make it harder to mobilize people to what already seems like a losing cause in the polls. I don't know whether this scandal will hurt him with traditional Catholic voters, who are historically solidly Democratic (hence the Daleys) but have trickled away to the other side on occasion, as with the Fitzgerald-Braun election.
3 - Mac Diva
The entry above was written a couple weeks ago -- before the other shoe dropped. I will do a followup if I have time.
I'm not at all sure Jack Ryan 'gets it' even now. His sense of privilege seems to overwhelm common sense.
Obama and I know some of the same people. Despite all the nonsense one hears about colored folks taking over, the number of us who went to elite law schools and did well is still relatively small. If Randall Kennedy or Steve Carter burps, it seems someone lets me know-:). As I say in the entry, I've never met Obama. Nor, have I been involved in politics beyond being a legislative intern. So, yes, he moves in more rarified circles than I do.
4 - Bob A. Booey
Fair enough. Where'd you go to law school?
This news will obviously hurt Ryan more with women voters and suburban "soccer moms" than it will with NASCAR Dads, so that's trouble.
5 - Mac Diva
One of the top ten. I am an anonymous blogger, so that it is all I'm gonna say.
6 - Jinx
It wouldn't be located in Pennsylvania, would it?
7 - Voxxy
The only "dirt" on Obama seems to be his cocaine usage, which is by all accounts, in the past. It didn't hurt him in the primaries and probably won't hurt him this fall.
8 - Ms. Tek
Well it didn't hurt Bush so cocaine is a non-issue.
9 - Voxxy
It has never been proven that Bush used cocaine. He is not the president with "a nose like a vacuum cleaner", that was #42. Obama has admitted using the substance. As I said, it probably won't hurt him this fall.
10 - Ms. Tek
Just like it never was proven that that Bush DIDN'T go AWOL from the GUARD.
And that didn't hurt him either.
We expect politicans to be scumbags. Its the American Way.
11 - Mac Diva
LOL @ Ms. Tek.
I don't know whether admitted drug experimentation can be used to 'get' a candidate or not. (Obama has written about it in his autobiography.) If it can, I think Ryan is not the person to benefit from it because of his own not so wee scandal. Clean hands and all that.
Voxxy, all I can say is asked and not answered.
Something that could happen between now and the election is more leaks about the sex clubs. Seems likely that Ryan was into that before and after his marriage. There may be lovers. . . In addition, it seems everybody and their Mama is running 'round with digital cameras these days. We may find ourselves saying 'move over, Paris Hilton.'
12 - Bob A. Booey
These are fairly asinine, shallow comments. Do you people really feel good about yourselves after saying glib, empty things like that? Does it make you feel smart?
"We expect politicans to be scumbags. Its the American Way. [...] In addition, it seems everybody and their Mama is running 'round with digital cameras these days. We may find ourselves saying 'move over, Paris Hilton.'"
This is horrible, bland writing. It's as if Jay Leno decided to blog about politics. It's especially ironic that you'd choose such words to critique a glib, shallow candidate like Ryan. Have some standards for yourselves, especially those of you who regard yourselves as self-styled journalist types or "intellectuals."
Here's the latest on Jack Ryan:
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/features/lifestyle/sfl-622bombshell,0,7233480.story?coll=sfla-entertainment-headlines
http://www.suntimes.com/output/elect/cst-nws-ryan22.html
It turns out Jack tried to get Jeri to go to sex clubs in several different cities, including New York, New Orleans, and Paris, all of which he had personally researched quite extensively in his travels. When she began to cry after seeing whips and chains and bizarre sex all around her, he told her it "wasn't a turn-on."
It seems the rest of their relationship was problematic as well:
'"I told him I thought it was out of his system. I told him he had promised me we would never go. People were having sex everywhere. I cried. I was physically ill. Respondent became very upset with me and said it was not a `turn-on' for me to cry. I could not get over the incident and my loss of any attraction to him as a result. Respondent knew this was a serious problem. I told him I did not know if we could work it out."
In the filing, Jeri Ryan said that by December 1998 the couple had tried counseling and reconciliation but that she thought too much damage had been done and she admitted that she had fallen in love with another man.
In another set of court documents released by Schnider, Jeri Ryan's mother Sharon Zimmermann, said her daughter complained to her in November 1998 that Jack Ryan was too controlling.
"Jeri Lynn told me that she was tired of being told what to eat, how to sit, what to wear, tired of being criticized about her physical appearance and told to exercise," Zimmermann said.
In his Monday press conference, Jack Ryan acknowledged that he had been too controlling and expressed regret. "There are a number of things I could do better," he said.'
Now it appears Jack Ryan's blaming Jeri for the "smut" and calling it a "new political low," an attempt to bring down his campaign. This sounds like a man who's holed up in his bunker denying his role in creating a new "smutty low for politics."
The news around here is that there will be INTENSE support for Ryan to withdraw within the next week -- he has lost virtually all his support from major Illinois Republicans. It's his choice since he cannot be forcibly removed from the ballot, but the feeling is that he has betrayed party leaders to whom he lied about what was in those divorce records:
'But at least three GOP leaders are fuming over the disclosures, saying they do not square with what Ryan told them to expect.
State Republican chairman Judy Baar Topinka believes Ryan lied to her by suggesting the papers contained nothing embarrassing, a source close to Topinka said.
Former Gov. Jim Edgar was stunned to hear about Jeri Ryan's allegations after Jack Ryan called Edgar over the weekend to describe the files, but made no mention of the sex clubs. Based on that characterization, Edgar told reporters earlier in the day the files would not likely sink Ryan's campaign.
"Edgar kind of feels like he took this guy at his word and is kind of stunned it could be different from what he was told," the source said.
And Downstate U.S. Rep. Ray LaHood (R-Ill.) called on Ryan to step down. "I think there's no way the people in Illinois will countenance the type of information and activity he was involved with."'
I actually think Ryan is unusual enough that he will attempt to weather this firestorm and will probably stay on the ballot. I'd say that it's 50-50 that he succumbs to the mounting pressure within the next week and a half, but I've always sensed there's something a little bit bizarre about him in his nervous speech and manic drive (which served him well in investment banking, there's no doubt). I couldn't have guessed at the kinky sex stuff, but I knew there was an unusual energy to his speech and countenance. I think the fact that he would lie to get supporters in the primaries indicates that he's got blinders on to his faults as a candidate and will attempt to see it through. Ryan seems to have a narcissistic edge -- more so than the last millionaire candidate, Peter Fitzgerald -- and his candidacy has always had an air of political vanity and personal entitlement to it.
If he does withdraw, it would obviously leaves Obama with a huge advantage in organization and campaign time over his new challenger. Especially since the new Republican candidate would have to spend weeks getting their name known and early money getting quick ads out there, which probably won't be as thought out as one would like in terms of message and tone. Obama's been known for months now and would have weeks to campaign virtually unopposed while the GOP met to select their new candidate and debut him to the press and public. I say him because the other major rivals in the primaries were all male.
I didn't know that Obama admitted to using cocaine. How old was he at the time and what was the occasion for it?
Obama did appear on camera today and said that "we should all be responsible for how we conduct ourselves in our campaigns," an interesting choice of words speaking to his restraint as well as Jack Ryan's poor lifestyle choices.
More interesting fall-out from this scandal:
"Still, other Republicans acknowleged that Ryan's political future was in doubt. An adviser to President Bush said the revelation made it more likely the Bush-Cheney campaign would steer clear of Illinois."
The lack of Bush campaign stops in Illinois won't matter much since the GOP was spending very little time or money in Illinois anyway since it's a solidly "blue" state for the Presidential election, but this could have a carry-over effect on the prospects of other GOP candidates who would have counted on Bush to raise funds for them and boost their efforts.
"That better be the pizza man ..." or the dominatrix. I'd like to see that primary ad redone.
That is all.
13 - Bob A. Booey
'Controversy over the sealed divorce file first erupted during Ryan's Republican primary campaign following revelations that a divorce file sealed by one of the Democratic contenders for the Senate, Blair Hull, contained allegations of spousal abuse.
Ryan refused requests from his opponents to release the file, saying it could harm his son and only dealt with custody matters. At one point, State Republican Party Chairwoman Judy Baar Topinka said she asked him flatly whether there was anything embarrassing in the file. Topinka said Ryan assured her there was not.
"I consider him an honest man and I take him at his word," she said shortly before the primary, which Ryan won over seven opponents.
On Monday, a source close to Topinka, who is also the state treasurer, said she felt Ryan had misled her. "She stuck her neck out for him and he assured her nothing in those files was embarrassing to him or to the Republican Party," the source said. "There's a general feeling by a lot of people that they've been lied to."
LaHood was even more direct. "In the interest of saving further embarassment for him and his family, he needs to immediately withdraw from the race," he said. "There is no way Republicans in Illinois will vote for somebody with this kind of activity in their background."'
14 - RJ Elliott
"I've never met Obama. Nor, have I been involved in politics beyond being a legislative intern"
Tack another line on to MD's resume...
15 - RJ Elliott
Ryan is toast. Maybe the GOP will run Henry Hyde in his place? :-/