Moscow Hostage Crisis Continued - Page 2

Daria Morganova, a spokeswoman for the theater, told The Associated Press the threat was reported in a cell phone call from a hostage actor. Specific demands are unknown, but the rebels have repeatedly said Russian troops must leave Chechnya, the mainly Muslim province in the Caucasus where war has raged for most of the last decade.

BACKGROUND from the Russian St. Petersburg Times:

    Cornered in the rugged mountains, Chechen separatists lose hope of winning the war by conventional means and seize hundreds of hostages to force Moscow to suspend its military campaign in Chechnya.

    This is what happened in June 1995 when Chechen warlords plotted and executed the hostage-taking raid in the southern city of Budyonnovsk. And this is what Russian authorities should have seen coming.

    Like in 1995, Chechen separatists have been cornered for months. Their efforts to force federal troops out of the republic with daily guerilla attacks have fallen flat. Like in 1995, Chechen separatists have repeatedly vowed to take the war to Russian cities outside the breakaway republic. Yet law-enforcement and security agencies failed this week to keep some 50 armed rebels from seizing hundreds of hostages in a Moscow theater.

    Foreseeing such terror attacks is a tough challenge for any country. But experts point to a number of problems that make the work of Russian agencies especially difficult - among them, corruption, lack of discipline and a disproportionate focus on investigation rather than prevention.

    "It is an evident failure," Sergei Karaganov, head of the Foreign and Defense Policy Council, said in a phone interview Thursday.

    The Interior Ministry and Federal Security Service, or FSB, should have discerned that radical Chechen separatists have been losing ground in Chechnya and their motivation to stage a large-scale terrorist attack in a Russian city has been growing, said Alexander Gurov, a retired police general who heads the State Duma's security committee.

    "The rebels have repeatedly stated that they would take the war to Russian cities. These statements should have been taken seriously," Gurov said in a telephone interview.

    Perhaps the most evident sign of radicialization among Chechen warlords - even those once considered moderate - was a videotape that surfaced in September showing rebel leader Aslan Maskhadov. Instead of his customary combat fatigues, Maskhadov appeared wearing the paraphernalia of a militant Islamist, including epaulets with verses from the Koran in Arabic script.

What other colossal intelligence failure does this remind you of? We had explicit threats from bin Laden and al Qaeda. We had explicit warnings as far back as the mid '90s about airliners used as missiles. We knew the World Trade Center was an almost irresistible target, one that had even been hit by Islamic terrorists before.

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