A weekend of major issues was upon us: social security's stimulating
squabbles, Greenspan's giving guidance on growth and Iran's ignoring
irate inspectors. But surely the media will be focused on something far
more important: just what will Martha do when she gets out and what
will Michael do when he goes in??
As I wrote last September, we gush over gossip (whether of the local
water-cooler or celebrity trade rag kinds)--it's got a special place in
our hearts. Harvard's evolutionary psych guru, Steve Pinker, said it
best: "Gossip is a favorite pastime in all human societies because
knowledge is power. Knowing who needs a favor and who is in a position
to offer one, who is trustworthy and who is a liar, who is available and
who is under the protection of a jealous spouse--all give obvious
strategic advantages in the games of life. That is especially true when
the information is not yet widely known and one can be the first to
exploit an opportunity, the social equivalent of insider trading."
Forget Marx. Media is the opiate of the masses. In part, because we all
want to keep up. We're afraid of what we'll miss if we tune out.
UBS's Tech Strategist Pip Coburn shared an interesting point. Most
people, especially the throngs on Wall Street, thirst for new things.
And if a sector doesn't develop immediately, they're on to the
next--never mind that the tipping point for the technology or market
hasn't hit yet. In the market, there's evidence of more and more
firm-specific volatility, but one has to wonder if it's because
technology is changing at a faster and faster rate (it is) or because
investors have shorter and shorter attention spans (they do)?
Like Buffett said, "companies get the shareholders they deserve".
Conversely, shareholders get the companies they deserve. Impatient,
restless investors will leap like lemmings from fad to fad. In the long
run, their thighs might be stronger, but their pockets will be emptier. As
has been said, the only safe way to double your money is to fold it over
once and put it in your pocket.
If you pay even remote attention to the media (and escapist attempts
require a serious expenditure of energy), the latest rages are
"podcasting" and personalized media. The former is really a subset of
the latter. Someone asked me to start a nanotech podcast of this weekly
letter. But my prediction on the fate of podcasting is this: hundreds of
thousands of people will post audio files for the world to hear. Like a
power law, a few voices ("podcasts")--that wouldn't have left their
full-time jobs for radio or would've otherwise never been heard--will
percolate to the top with very large audiences, benefit from positive
feedback effects and early lock-in of listener loyalty and bite into the
Satellite radio players. Simultaneously a few very rare casts, like
"cooking hour for lactose intolerant dog-lovers" will find a loyal but very,
very small niche audience.
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