Right now in Bacalar, 20 miles from the Belize border and from Chetumal it is overcast, rains come and go, as do relatively light winds. The local TV (state-run) is a bit hysterical with warnings. But then much of the population live in alapas, thatch-roofed huts of wood or bamboo with dirt floors. Primary schools, which are cheaply made of cement, are the shelters here in Bacalar.
The US consulate in Merida has not ordered evacuation of Americans from the resort areas nor Merida and says that it will be closed Monday for the storm and will re-open on Tuesday.
Will the infrastructure hold? It is Mexico; don't bank on it. Telephone and internet will probably go down with the electricity. The one north-south highway for the state of Quintana Roo may or may not hold up. Parts are under construction. Other parts are still un-reconstructed. The hotels of Cancun and Playa del Carmen will probably be secure. Seaside cabanas will not.
The army has been set in readiness for the aftermath. It is one of their major and best roles in this country. If our phone stays up I will let everyone know what is happening here. Sadly, my generator failed yet again when it was needed. The day was bolting everything down or putting it away and getting the mahogany storm doors ready for me to close when the winds come. Water tanks are filled and there will be hope for electricity; but only hope.
For now, electricity and phone lines are in service. If you need to reach people on Cozumel or the Cancun area, Playa del Carmen or Tulum, now is the time.
The best site for monitoring the storm is NOAA
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Article comments
1 - Lion Kuntz
Thanks for the real-time report. They are precious few, considering how long we have been in the computer age now.
Time: 7:42 PM PST. (10:42 at ground zero local time.) NOAA does not keep archives available to the public of the storm floater satellite images, so I download them half-hourly to archive my own collection.
Beginning two hours ago Emily began interacting with the land masses in the area. Western Cuba sheared off large outlier rain bands in the northeast of the storm, depriving the storm of replenishment of moisure in the contra-clockwise direction. The southwest, south, southeast and eastern outlier bands have been exerting a tortional twist to the storm.
The forward direction of the storm displayed distinct compression effects against the coast.
Keep in mind the storm composition:
in the center is the eye which is calm. around the eye is the greatest velocity decreasing outwards. The hurrican force extends 60 miles out from the eye, decreasing to 73 mph, and thereafter the outlier bands are tropical storm strength of less than that amount.
Since the outlier bands have been sheared, those to the south east are likely to miss most of the severe weather completely. The eye has not closed into land for two hours duration.
The tortional twist is jerking the mass of the hurricane in a north-northeast direction, countering some of the north-northwest momentum.
It appears that the hurricane mass is "seeking" the path of least resistence, and squeezing out between the point of Yucatan and western Cuba. If this trend continues the eye may not make landfall at all, but the direction of the storm will have drastically altered.
What you will see on the satellites will depend on when you look. These pictures are updated every half hour (but a processing lag makes them appear 20 to 45 later than the timestamp on them.)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/WV/20.jpg
View of Water Vapor contents.
www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg
View of heat concentrations taken in Infrared band 4.
www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg
Cloud formations in visible wavelengths (radar overlays at night).
www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/RGB/20.jpg
RGB version of cloud cover, sometimes brings out details obscured on grayscale cloud pictures.
2 - cindy
Emily has touched into Cozumel and our friend Alex has called from his cell phone - he purchased in Colorado when he and the family visited a few weeks ago. Boarded up - pressure from the wind is howling into the bottom floor of his casa. "rocks" whatever are hitting the boards and house now - the red eye of the storm passing, actually just beginning to pass. It's 9:40 Colorado time and finally he's a little freaked out! Pinky, his wife is asleep and just in case he has boogie boards. Alex lives about 20 blocks from the oceans past Copus Christi area where lots of continentals live.
By Sunrise, this too shall pass.
Have Mercy...