Chinese President Jiang Zemin.
Do you still doubt this is gonna be the Chinese century?
And India will be right there beside them, ruling the world.
Last Sunday's New York Times Business section featured an interview with Dale L. Fuller, president and chief executive of Borland Software.
He was asked about the current rise of China as a challenger to India for low-cost software development.
Said Fuller, "China is a little bit lower-cost than India. But I don't think that will last for long. Both countries have what we would classify, over the next 10 to 20 years, as inexhaustible sources of human capital."
Fuller neglected to mention the most important aspect of that inexhaustible human capital: it's grateful for the chance to work for one-tenth the pay of its Western counterpart.
Again, it cannot be repeated too often:
The population of China is 1,287 million
The population of India is 1,050 million
The population of the U.S. is 290 million
Over time, it will be no contest: the two Asian countries have nearly half the world's population.
The sheer mass of Chinese and Indian economic activity, both production and consumption, will reduce the U.S. to spectator status in the great world drama of the second half of the 21st century.
Article comments
1 - RJ
Sadly, I believe you may be correct.
The next few decades will see the current unipolar world, "led" by the US, change into a multipolar world, with India, Red China, The US, and The EU all competing for global economic and/or military supremacy. (I suspect Japan, Russia, and other countries will be considered second-tier powers.)
China has the advantage here, in terms of population. And while India is expected to overtake China in the population category sometime later this century, China has some huge advantages over India. First, it's larger in size. Second, it's a more homogenous society. Third, it has a head-start on massive industrialization. Fourth, it is in a better neighborhood, geographically-speaking. And fifth, India has a relatively fragile emocracy, while China has a very strong government with little (open) opposition.
By the time I'm an old man, the US may be playing second-fiddle to a Communist Asian country.
-shudder-
:-/
2 - Mark Edward Manning
Amazing. All those Indians and Chinese will speak English fluently, and yet Hispanic immigrants still get bilingual classes, driving instructions, voting cards, etc., feeling no urgent need to assimilate. That's what scares me more than the thought of the two potential Asian giants becoming superpowers.
3 - Hal Pawluk
... Hispanic immigrants still ... feeling no urgent need to assimilate. That's what scares me more than the thought of the two potential Asian giants becoming superpowers.
Really?
Would you care to elaborate on how you came to that position? And how exactly you see Hispanics in this country as a threat that is more frightening than the U. S. becoming a sideline player in the world?
4 - Eric Olsen
I don't see China, India or Latino immigrants as "threats": the more the economies of China and India improve, the higher the average standard of living they achieve, the more they will become like us and the better tradingpartners they will become. Imagine the opportunities regarding exports.
Eventually Spanish-speaking immigrants to the US will assimilate, like every other wave of immigrants has.
5 - Jim Carruthers
Damn those democracy movements with their shitty bands, lousy clothes, and constant whining.
As for Hispanic America, that is the fact. The Americas, with the exception of the US, Canada and Brazil are Spanish speaking, and the majority of the minority in the States in terms of population and history is Espanol. To paraphrase Tonto, "What do you mean, "we", white man?".
I give the edge to India over China for a couple of reasons. It has the basis of a multi-cultural and linguistic democracy, it has a ruthlessly competitive technocratic base (sheer numbers mean nothing if you can't support a meritocracy), and it has emergent culture. China is still a top-down empire, and works on the basis of solving problems by brute force, and valuing appearance over results.
And as in Japan, while English may appear to prosper, it is because people think they can speak English, not because they can. Just like Peggy Hill thinks she can speak Spanish
6 - Jim Carruthers
damn this spelling checker which made my opening gag meaningless. That should read "emocracy" quoting from above.
7 - Purple Tigress
I understand there are people who think Americans haven't spoken English in years. I'd be quoting a Prof. Henry Higgins here for all those unfamiliar with the movie and stage musical.
The Chinese and Japanese all learn to read English. As undergrads, they are required to be able to do research in their native language and at least one foreign language as do many Europeans and Africans (but few Americans). But like many things, foreign language acquisition is a skill and the ability to read is not always achieved along with the ability to speak. The Japanese also get a mixed bag of English--Australian, New Zealand, American and British. This explains the meaning of jumper, bonnet and biscuit in modern Japanese and why it makes it harder for an American to understand.
China isn't really so homogenous. What unites them is a common written language not a common spoken language. This is why all Chinese films have subtitles in Chinese. Besides the Chinese, there are the Tibetans and the Mongols.
When you are looking at the Chinese, you might consider that there are also three Chinas and many ethnic Chinese speak of themselves as x-born Chinese (American-born Chinese, Vietnamese-born Chinese).
Even so...Not everyone in America fears the rising of Asian powers and I can't help but wonder, given the continued efforts of Asians for democracy and the rise of capitalism, if Mainland China will remain communist.
As for Latinos in the US, many have assimilated, but there are many more waves of immigrants from Spanish-speaking countries. Assimilation is made more difficult when there is substantial prejudice against them in school and in the work place.
Assimilation is easy when you look WASP-ish. Otherwise, you are constantly reminded how "un-American" you are.
Americans do come in all colors and in some regions like California, Spanish-speaking families may have a longer history in the area than the Anglos so one should tread carefully when speaking of assimilation.
Back to the main topic, though, which I think is fear of India and China. It only brings to my mind a few questions: surely you can't expect world peace when a minority of the world population decides the course of world affairs and that minority is predominately led by people of one race and one religion?
In the future, the US will have to learn how to become a sovereign state in a world democracy and how can that be bad when our political rhetoric is all about spreading democracy?
8 - Jim Carruthers
Apparently that sort of expression in the USA is considered Un-American, because the USA is dedicated to saying one thing and doing something quite different. So, because China can produce cheap goods for the USA without democracy, and having trade unions and whatnot would mean more expensive indentured labour, that's not on the table. Apparently in the future, there is a lot of very rich people, and a whole lot more people sweating to keep them that way
9 - Purple Tigress
Yes, I've heard that I might be espousing Un-American thoughts from as far back as I can remember. That is one very American way of chilling the freedom of speech. But, of course, that only comes from people who even consider me American.
I'm feeling a bit more optimistic in respects to the way the world shall change although it does seem to be heading in the direction you have indicated (poor countries being exploited for labor for the benefit of richer countries). Perhaps we have yet to break the slave owner/exploiter mentality in our society and until we do it will be business as usual.
I think capitalism is having an effect on communist China and the move toward democracy hasn't stopped.
It was, after all India that inspired Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. toward non-violent protest. India gave China Buddhism and perhaps non-violent protest will bring an end to communism.
The US government still gives Mainland China a favored nation status despite the problems you have cited. That probably won't change in the near future despite American assertions about spreading democracy.
10 - Jim Carruthers
I think China and India and the rest of the world will leap-frog the USA because they have embraced networks using wireless and broadband. Instead of worrying about "indecency", they are using the technology.
11 - RJ
Two things:
1 - In order to get my BA, I must prove myself competent in a foreign language. I have chosen Spanish. And to those of you who have read my attempts at Espanol, you know what an uphill climb this will be... :-/
2 - The US is rapidly accepting Wireless AND broadband. Not to the same extent as, say, South Korea, but it will get there sooner rather than later, IMO...